We've got four weeks of football under our belts, which should mean we are starting to feel more certain about player roles and performance. That would probably be more true if we didn't lose a handful of stars to injury seemingly every week. Still, I feel confident saying we know a lot more now than we did a month ago. This newfound knowledge comes just in time for the first byes of the season. Normally, a two-team bye week is worthy of a yawn, but in Week 5, we'll be missing two top 12 quarterbacks, two top 12 running backs, a top 12 receiver, and a top 12 tight end. In other words, we've got work to do.
One thing I hope to avoid as I do this weekly is calling a guy a faller one week and a riser the next week. But we had a lot of guys that we all but gave up on after three bad weeks who finally popped. At the very least, we have to address some of those, starting with Malik Nabers. We also have some big matchup shifts, which always impact the weekly projections.
Prominent players, we had projected last week that we are not projecting to play in Week 5 as of Monday evening:
Lamar Jackson, Ja'Marr Chase, Saquon Barkley, Ladd McConkey, DJ, Moore, Kyle Monangai, Mack Hollins, Marcus Mariota
At the bottom of this article are my Week 5 projections for quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. They will be updated throughout the week as we get more information.
Risers
Jared Goff, QB, Lions
The first thing that is going to stand out to you is that Jared Goff is QB1 for Week 5. I'm not sure it should be that big of a surprise. He is QB5 on a per-game basis for the season, and he's facing a Cardinals defense that has given up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses. I could make the argument that they have been the worst pass defense in the league, but if they haven't, it may be Goff's Lions. Goff's Lions have an implied total of 29, which is both the biggest number on the weekend and slightly below their season average. It also helps Goff's case that Josh Allen is on the road against the Rams without DJ Moore.
Drake Maye, QB, Patriots
Maye is the first of the Week 4 rebounds who also rebound in my projections. His Patriots are 3.5-point favorites at home against the Raiders, and I mostly buy that Maye and the Patriots' pass game found something last week. He's not in the QB1 discussion like we thought he might be this system, but he does project as a QB1, and I would start him over most, if not all, of the streaming options. Maye ranks second behind only Lamar Jackson in quarterback rushing yards this season.
Will Shipley, RB, Eagles
As of Monday night, we aren't projecting Saquon Barkley or Tank Bigsby to play for the Eagles in Week 5. That makes Shipley one of the biggest risers of the week, as I project him for 18 Fantasy points against Jacksonville. This isn't a good matchup, and the Eagles aren't currently a good offense, but any time a running back projects for this much work, he is going to be a top-30 running back. I would expect Shipley to score around eight Fantasy points without a touchdown, and if he scores, he'll be an RB2. He should be one of the most popular names on the waiver wire.
RJ Harvey, RB, Broncos
Harvey saw 10 targets in Week 4, which certainly moved his projection needle, even if we don't expect a repeat performance. The Broncos offense looks a little broken right now and Harvey has been more efficient running the ball than J.K. Dobbins. With Jonah Coleman on Injured Reserve, we expect Harvey's rush share to increase and he will probably be top three on the team in target share as well. He's a very good PPR flex this week against the Chargers.
Ollie Gordon, RB, Dolphins
It was a wild week of speculation about the Dolphins running backs, but now we have some results. Gordon played 59.5% of the offensive snaps compared to Jaylen Wright's 29.7%. There was a similar split in rush share and surprisingly, Gordon also earned more targets. View him as a high-end flex who can be used as a low-end RB2 in a pinch. This is still a terrible offensive environment, but at least now we know who the lead back is.
Malik Nabers, WR, Giants
Nabers is the second guy who was a faller last week but rebounds as a riser in Week 5 after he broke out with six catches for 112 yards and a touchdown. I moved Nabers inside of my top 30 in this week's projections in what should be another good matchup. I may be a bit slower to move Nabers back into the top 20 because Jameis Winston still made a lot of bad throws against a bad defense and Isaiah Likely still dominated targets. Still, I suspect most people will feel comfortable starting Nabers in Week 5.
Carnell Tate, WR, Titans
Tate had a monster Week 4 and now ranks 4th amongst all receivers with a 29.6% target share. He's also in the top 10 for first-read share. Cam Ward is making an effort to get his rookie receiver more involved and the results are promising. This is still a bad offense, but they did look slightly more competent against the Ravens in Week 4. Week 5 brings a bad matchup against the Texans, we think. The Texans have not played up to their reputation this season. I would start Tate as a low-end RW5 in Week 5.
Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir, WR, Bills
We're expecting DJ Moore to take Week 5 off as he deals with a shoulder injury, which is a target boost to both Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir. For whatever it's worth, Coleman has been remarkably efficient and has seen a target share over 20% when Moore has been off the field. The third-year receiver has caught 14 of 16 targets and is averaging a ridiculous 13.6 yards per target. I would treat both of these guys as boom/bust WR3s in a bad matchup against the Rams.
Fallers
Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles
Everyone is awful in Philadelphia. As of Monday night, we are projecting the team to be without Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert. There are very few quarterbacks we would start without their top receiver, tight end, and running back, not to mention the fact that Landon Dickerson is on IR and Lane Johnson missed Week 4 for personal reasons. I don't want to drop Hurts, but I can't project him as a starter until he gets more help.
David Montgomery, RB, Texans
Since Week 1, Montgomery has 27 rush attempts for 67 yards. In those three games, he has scored 5.2 PPR Fantasy points per game, which ties him with Kyle Juszczyk for RB50. Over the last two weeks, it looks like Woody Marks has taken over work inside the 10, which was supposed to be the one thing that saved Montgomery. We'd take Marks straight up over Montgomery for the rest of the season, but neither looks like a Fantasy starter.
Blake Corum, RB, Rams
Kyren Williams is playing excellent football and Sean McVay is rewarding him with more playing time, at the expense of Corum. In Week 4, Corum played a season-low 15.5% of the offensive snaps. This was the third time this year he's been below a 30% snap share. He's still one of the best handcuffs available, but he's no longer flexworthy alongside Williams.
Dalton Schultz, TE, Texans
I leaned too heavily on Schultz's Week 1 targets in my Week 4 projections. With Nico Collins back, Schultz was an afterthought in the passing game, earning just two targets. He's still right around the TE12 range but needs to score some touchdowns to stay there. Unfortunately, Houston has rarely used him in that part of the field, as Schultz has scored just 10 touchdowns in 53 games with the team.
