getty-anthony-richardson-colts.jpg
USATSI

The 2024 Fantasy Football season hasn't gone according to plan in large part due to injuries, but we've also seen some of yesteryear's stars struggle. One star who has managed to produce despite concerning underlying metrics is Ja'Marr Chase. On Monday's episode of Beyond the Boxscore, Jacob Gibbs, Adam Aizer, and myself dove into why Chase has a career-low target share this season and what it means moving forward for his Fantasy stock, Tee Higgins' stock, and more. They also dove into the rising Fantasy stock of Tyrone Tracy Jr., among other players. 

For a larger discussion on all of these players and more, be sure to check Fantasy Football Today Beyond the Boxscore show:

Chase vs. Higgins

The Giants pulled a page out of the Bill Belichick playbook by assigning their No. 2 cornerback to Ja'Marr Chase but also rolling coverage to him and double-teaming him on any key down while allowing their No. 1 cornerback to match up against Tee Higgins. This is a game plan that we could see mimicked by more defensive coordinators -- it has been already at times -- and it's a major reason why Chase has a career-low target-per-route-run rate (19.4%), and his overall target share is just 22%. Higgins has six more targets than Chase since returning to the lineup, and Chase has just one game this season with seven or more targets.

Chase's first-read target has been steadily dropping for three years now, as Jacob mentioned on the show, "Chase's first-read target rate by season: 2022: 37.3%, 2023: 30.7%, 2024: 25.4%

Chase is still top-six in Fantasy scoring among wide receivers, but he's done it on the back of explosive touchdown catches. The targets need to start flowing his way for him to maintain a top-6 scoring rate rest of season. The buy window is still open for Higgins, who should be the key cog in the Bengals pass game whenever teams roll coverage to Chase (which, again, will be often). Higgins can win one-on-ones against most of the NFL's cornerbacks. 

Promising metrics on Tyrone Tracy Jr. 

The Bengals played 11 defenders up and around the line of scrimmage (within 10-15 yards of it) and drove downhill to shoot every run gap and drive on every short pass. That was their game plan to stop the Daniel Jones-led offense, and it worked. The Giants created just 10 total yards before contact on Tracy's 17 rushing attempts. Despite everything working against him, Tracy totaled 107 yards added six receptions.

More importantly, the underlying metrics were excellent. Tracy had a 72% route participation in this game, up from 41% last week. He had more pass blocking snaps than Eric Gray. Tracy proved he can stay on the field on all three downs, and they can trust him in pass protection. His route participation rate and his overall snap rate were the highest percentages of any running back on the slate in Week 6.

Buy window has closed on London

If you listened to any of the last three or four Beyond the Boxscore episodes, you know that we've been clamoring for you to go out and trade for Drake London, but that window has officially closed now. Excluding Atlanta's Week 1 game, where they called plays exclusively out of the shotgun using no play action, London has a 41% first read target share in 2024 (the only receiver with a large first read target share than Malik Nabers), according to Fantasy Points data. 

If that reads like an Aizer stat, it's because it's exactly what an Aizer stat looks like. Only this time, it was a Jacob Gibbs stat. So now we've got Gibbs Aizer-stating things, and I'm here for it.

Per Gibbs:

"If you really wanna get nuts, let's Week 1 and the Week 5 game that Drake London missed multiple drives in:
- 46% first-read target rate
- 42% air yardage share
- 44% red zone target share
- 50% end zone target share

Add Douglas now in all PPR leagues

Demario Douglas is a must-add Fantasy player now that Drake Maye is in at quarterback. At UNC, Maye developed a dominant rapport with slot receiver Josh Downs. He is building something similar with Douglas now.

Douglas dominated the first-read target share in Maye's first start. He had a 33% first-read target share -- next highest on the Patriots was Kayshon Boutte, with a 14.3% first-read target share. As we've seen with Downs, this role can lead to must-start status in PPR formats. Grab Douglas now before it's too late.