Even though the players discussed below are designated as potential "busts," they still possess plenty of value and are worthy of being selected on draft day. However, fantasy managers should exercise caution going into the 2024-25 season to avoid the disappointment of investing a high pick on a player who may not live up to expectations. Avoiding some overvalued options and not reaching too far to choose others ahead of more dependable options are great ways to maximize roster depth.
Sam Reinhart, C/RW, Florida Panthers
Reinhart has been a dependable source of offense for the Panthers since his arrival to the organization in the 2021-22 season. He erupted for 33 goals and 82 points in 78 games that year before dropping to 31 tallies and 67 points over 82 appearances in 2022-23. Reinhart reached another level last campaign, amassing 57 goals and 94 points across 82 outings. He had a career-high 233 shots on net but benefited tremendously from a league-best 24.5 shooting percentage. That type of success isn't close to sustainable, especially for a player who didn't even have a 35-goal campaign to his credit before 2023-24. Reinhart also had a league-leading 27 power-play goals after scoring 16 for consecutive campaigns. He will be productive in 2024-25, but selecting him too high and expecting the same results would be a mistake.
Zach Hyman, LW/RW, Edmonton Oilers
Hyman exploded for 54 goals and 77 points in 80 games last campaign. He zoomed by his previous high of 36 goals in 2022-23 on the strength of an 18.6 shooting percentage, which was the second-best mark of his career. Hyman also benefited from a remarkable 100-assist effort from Connor McDavid. McDavid had a hand in 35 of Hyman's goals in 2023-24 after assisting on 19 in 2022-23. As talented as McDavid is, achieving over 100 helpers again will be a tough challenge. The 32-year-old Hyman could experience the same offensive correction as teammate Ryan Nugent-Hopkins when the latter plummeted from 37 goals and 104 points in 2022-23 to 18 tallies and 67 points last season. Hyman will be productive this campaign, but the odds of having the same goal-scoring success are low.
Brock Boeser, RW, Vancouver Canucks
Boeser had a career year offensively last season, netting 40 goals and recording 73 points in 81 games. He was buoyed by a personal-best 19.6 shooting percentage in a 2023-24 campaign in which everything seemed to go into the net for the Canucks. Boeser also potted a career-high 16 goals on the power play and topped 200 shots for the second time in his eight-year career. His spot alongside J.T. Miller at even strength and the power play makes him an attractive option for fantasy managers. Still, it is risky to draft him expecting a repeat performance because he didn't even have a 30-goal or 60-point season before 2023-24. He has a great deal to prove in the upcoming campaign.
Brad Marchand, LW, Boston Bruins
Marchand has accounted for 67 points in two straight seasons while seeing a decline in points per game for three consecutive campaigns. He has also hit the 30-goal plateau only once in the past five years. The 36-year-old winger appears to be declining offensively, and his days as a point-per-game threat could be over. He is also coming off three surgeries during the offseason to his elbow, groin, and abdominal area. Being able to play through those issues is commendable, and it could be interpreted as an encouraging sign if one argues he could improve if he stays healthy. On the other hand, it's also a massive red flag because it could lead to recurring problems, absences from the lineup, and poorer statistics.
Thatcher Demko, G, Vancouver Canucks
After being limited to 32 appearances in 2022-23, Demko bounced back in a big way last season, posting a 35-14-2 record with a 2.45 goals-against average and .918 save percentage. However, he sustained a knee injury in March, forcing him to miss 14 straight contests. The 28-year-old netminder came back for three outings, including one in the playoffs, before sitting out Vancouver's final 12 postseason contests. As training camp opens for the Canucks, Demko is facing an uncertain timeline for his return amid the expectation that he will need to manage his knee issue throughout the 2024-25 season. His fantasy stock hasn't suffered that much yet, according to early drafts and mocks, but that will likely change. Demko is shaping up to be a risky fantasy option for the upcoming campaign.
Frank Vatrano, C/LW, Anaheim Ducks
Vatrano broke out in 2023-24, supplying 37 goals and 60 points in 82 games. He surpassed his previous bests of 24 goals in 2018-19 and 41 points in 2022-23 due to some streaky scoring. He lit the lamp 14 times in his first 23 outings before scoring seven over his next 26 contests. Vatrano followed that up with an eight-goal outburst in 11 games prior to scoring once in 17 contests. He finished the year with seven tallies in five matches. Vatrano logged a career-high 18:21 of ice time per game last season, but that will likely decrease in 2024-25. The Ducks intend to give their young core more opportunities to play prominent roles, which could push Vatrano down to a third-line role and bump him off of the top power-play combination.
Mike Matheson, D, Montreal Canadiens
Matheson was a standout performer last season, compiling 11 goals, 62 points, 187 shots, and 186 blocks over 82 games. He was underrated going into fantasy drafts, but the script has flipped ahead of the 2024-25 campaign. Matheson had similar scoring rates in 2022-23 despite being limited to 48 outings, but he could see his point total come back down to earth in the upcoming campaign. He did not have a 40-point season before catapulting himself over 60 in 2023-24. Matheson earned career highs on the man advantage last campaign with five goals and 23 assists, but his role could be reduced in that capacity in 2024-25 if prospect Lane Hutson is ready to assume the mantle as the team's top power-play quarterback.
Aaron Ekblad, D, Florida Panthers
Ekblad missed the first 16 games of the 2023-24 season following shoulder surgery, and he suited up in just nine of 22 contests down the stretch because of other injuries. In 51 appearances, he tallied four goals, 18 points, and 98 shots. Ekblad likely has the inside track on filling in for Brandon Montour, who signed with Seattle in July, on the top power-play unit because Gustav Forsling has averaged a mere 43 seconds of power-play time over the past three seasons. The 28-year-old Ekblad has plenty of bounce-back appeal, and fantasy managers are banking on that scenario based on early drafts. However, he remains a risky option for 2024-25 because of his inability to stay healthy. Ekblad hasn't played a full season since 2018-19. He is also coming off the worst showing of his career. Ekblad could be worthy of a selection later in drafts, but he's currently going a bit too high.
