March Madness 2026 bracket: NCAA Tournament picks, predictions from seasoned college basketball model
SportsLine's model has nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds and revealed its optimal NCAA Tournament bracket 2026
It has been 51 years since a team won the NCAA Tournament playing in its home state, and just one team has the opportunity to end this drought in March Madness 2026. Indianapolis will host this year's title game, and Purdue is the only team from the Hoosier State in the 2026 NCAA Tournament field. Cutting down the nets would give the Boilermakers their first-ever NCAA Championship, as only St. John's and Temple have more all-time college basketball wins without a national title.
In 2026 March Madness, No. 2 Purdue may have to go through top-seeded Arizona, No. 3 Gonzaga or No. 4 Arkansas just to get to Indianapolis at the end of the 2026 NCAA bracket. Before filling out your NCAA Tournament bracket 2026, be sure to see the 2026 March Madness bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Their proven projection model has simulated every game in the tournament 10,000 times. It has absolutely crushed its March Madness picks recently, beating over 91% of all CBS Sports brackets in four of the past seven tournaments. It was all over UConn's championship run two years ago and nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 last year. It also correctly predicted all four Final Four teams in 2025.
It knows how to spot an upset as well. The same model has produced brackets that have nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016.
There's no reason to rely on luck when there's proven technology to help you dominate your 2026 March Madness picks. Now, with the 2026 NCAA bracket revealed, the model is simulating the matchups and its results are in. You can only see it over at SportsLine.
Top 2026 March Madness bracket picks (preview two matchups)
One of the Midwest Region picks from the model: No. 9 Saint Louis defeats No. 8 Georgia in the first round. The Billikens are in elite company when it comes to effective FG% on both ends of the court, which has enabled them to a 28-5 record. Saint Louis ranks second in the nation in defensive eFG% and third in offensive eFG%, making it just the fourth team since 2000 to rank among the top five in both. Saint Louis is also in the top five in Division I in both 3-point percentage (40.1%) and defending the 3-point line (29.4% allowed).
A balanced unit like that is the last thing a Georgia program that has struggled in March wants to see. The Dawgs haven't won an NCAA Tournament game since 2002, which is the third-longest active drought among any power conference team. A lack of defense could keep this drought going, as the 79.2 ppg that Georgia allows this season is the fifth-most among the 68 March Madness teams.
Another surprise in the Midwest: No. 5 Texas Tech defeats No. 4 Alabama in the second round. The fact that Bama has notched 23 wins this season is an accomplishment considering how awful its defense has been. Among the 68 NCAA tourney teams, the Tide allow the most points per game (83.5), the most rebounds per game (40) and the most offensive boards per game (13.8). Struggles on that end of the court are just what a Texas Tech team which lost its best player, JT Toppin (ACL), wants to see come March.
The Red Raiders already rank fifth in the country in 3-point percentage, and Bama's lack of rebounding prowess means that even if TTU misses from downtown, it will often get second-chance opportunities. Texas Tech sports a 15-1 record when scoring at least 82 points this season, so Bama allowing 83.5 ppg is a bad omen for the Tide seeing the second weekend. You can see the model's 2026 NCAA bracket picks here.
How to make 2026 NCAA bracket predictions
Who wins every tournament-defining matchup, and which region does the model project the No. 1 seed not making the Final Four, plus there being two double-digit seed stunners? With the model's track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you'll want to see which stunners it's calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.
So what's the optimal NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket, and which NCAA Tournament double-digit seeds will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which region is loaded with upsets, all from the model that's beaten 91% of bracket players in four of the last seven tournaments.
