NCAA bracket predictions: Model gives out surprising March Madness 2026 tournament picks
SportsLine's model nailed 12 of the teams in the Sweet 16 last season and simulated the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket 10,000 times

After back-to-back national championships in 2023 and 2024, the UConn Huskies didn't make it out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament last season. However, they'll be back on the prowl this year after earning a No. 2 seed in the East Region of the 2026 March Madness bracket. UConn went 29-5 this season and finished runner-up to St. John's in the regular season and Big East Tournament.
UConn kicks off its 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket against Furman at 10 p.m. ET on Friday, while St. John's draws No. 12 seed Northern Iowa as the No. 5 seed in the same region. Which Big East school makes a deeper run and who should be on your radar if you're entering 2026 NCAA Tournament picks? Before making any 2026 March Madness bracket predictions, be sure to check out the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Their proven projection model has simulated every game in the tournament 10,000 times. It has absolutely crushed its March Madness picks recently, beating over 91 percent of all CBS Sports brackets in four of the past seven tournaments. It was all over UConn's championship run two years ago and nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 last year. It also correctly predicted all four Final Four teams in 2025.
It knows how to spot an upset as well. The same model has produced brackets that have nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016.
Now, with the 2026 NCAA bracket revealed, the model is simulating the matchups and its results are in. You can only see it over at SportsLine.
Three 2026 March Madness bracket games to watch
One of the most intriguing 2026 March Madness matchups to watch: No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 9 TCU in the East region. Jake Diebler and Jamie Dixon are at opposite ends of their coaching careers, with Diebler in his second full season at the helm at Ohio State and Dixon in season No. 10 at TCU and season No. 23 overall. However, they'll still match wits in a 12:15 p.m. ET tipoff on Thursday after middle-of-the-pack seasons in the Big Ten and Big 12, respectively. Bruce Thornton leads the Buckeyes in scoring (20.2 ppg) and assists (3.9 apg) while David Punch has been the leading scorer (14.3 ppg) and rebounder (6.7 rpg) for the Horned Frogs.
Another 2026 NCAA Tournament matchup to keep an eye on is No. 7 UCLA vs. No. 10 UCF in the East Region. Mick Cronin has been a regular participant in the NCAA Tournament since his days at Murray State and he'll make his 16th appearance in March Madness as a head coach after leading UCLA to a 23-11 campaign. Meanwhile, Johnny Dawkins guided UCF to its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2019 with a 20-11 season that included high-profile wins over Texas A&M, Kansas, Texas Tech and BYU. They'll tip off at 7:25 p.m. ET on Friday at Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia.
Another 2026 March Madness game to watch out for: No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 11 South Florida in the East Region. Louisville is basically looking into a mirror at itself from last year in this matchup. South Florida enters with 25 wins after winning just 13 games last year. Last March, Louisville had 27 wins after eight victories the year before, with new coaches at each school leading to significant improvements. Pat Kelsey now enters Year 2 at Louisville, and the Cardinals are 23-10 this season. Bryan Hodgson has South Florida entering March Madness at 25-8, in what could be a one-and-done situation for him at the school, with rumors linking him to Syracuse and Providence. Hodgson says he remains focused on finishing this season strong, though, as South Florida seeks its first NCAA Tournament win since 2012. Louisville's last March Madness win came in 2017. You can only see the model's 2026 NCAA bracket picks here.
How to make 2026 NCAA bracket predictions
Who wins every tournament-defining matchup? And which teams will make surprising runs through the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model's track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you'll want to see which stunners it's calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.
So what's the optimal NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket? And which NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which double-digit seeds you can back with confidence, all from the model that called all four Final Four teams in 2025.
















