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The No. 3 seed Texas Tech Red Raiders will take on the No. 14 seed UNC Wilmington Seahawks on Thursday night in a West Region matchup of the 2025 NCAA Tournament. Texas Tech is 25-8 on the season and finished second in the Big 12 before losing to Arizona in the conference tournament. Meanwhile, UNC Wilmington won the CAA Tournament to earn its way into March Madness and is 27-7 on the season. This is the seventh March Madness appearance in the last nine years that the tournament has been held for the Red Raiders, while the Seahawks are making their seventh appearance since joining Division I in 1977.

Tipoff from INTRUST Bank Arena in Wichita, Kansas, is set for 10:10 p.m. ET. The Red Raiders are 15.5-point favorites in the latest Texas Tech vs. UNC Wilmington odds via SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points is 144.5. Before making any UNC Wilmington vs. Texas Tech picks, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every Division 1 college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters the 2025 NCAA Tournament on a 228-166 roll (+2025) on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to 2023. This model has also produced brackets that have beaten over 91% of CBS Sports entries in four of the last six tournaments and nailed 24 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds. Anyone following could have seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Texas Tech vs. UNC Wilmington and just locked in its March Madness predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the college basketball odds and lines for UNC Wilmington vs. Texas Tech:

  • Texas Tech vs. UNC Wilmington spread: Texas Tech -15.5
  • Texas Tech vs. UNC Wilmington over/under: 144.5 points 
  • Texas Tech vs. UNC Wilmington money line: Texas Tech -1587, UNC Wilmington +874
  • TT: 17-16 against the spread (ATS) this season 
  • UNCW: 20-12 ATS this season 
  • Texas Tech vs. UNC Wilmington picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why Texas Tech can cover

The Red Raiders are celebrating their 100th season of college basketball and are making their 20th all-time appearance in the NCAA Tournament. The 25 wins that Texas Tech has piled up in 2024-25 ties for the fourth-most in program history. Grant McCasland's squad is also tied for ninth in the country with 10 Quad 1 wins this season, which include an overtime victory in Houston on Feb. 1.

Texas Tech has made it to the Sweet 16 three times in the last decade and this year's squad is led by sophomore forward JT Toppin. The New Mexico transfer is averaging 18.1 points and 9.2 rebounds per game. The 2025 Big 12 Player of the Year has piled up 15 double-doubles on the season. The Red Raiders also went unbeaten against Quad 3 and Quad 4 teams (12-0) in 2024-25. See which team to pick here.

Why UNC Wilmington can cover 

UNC Wilmington's 27 wins are tied for the second-most in school history and the program won its conference tournament for just the seventh time. The CAA champions are led by senior guard Donovan Newby, who began his career at Milwaukee before spending the last three seasons with the Seahawks. Newby is averaging 14.6 points and 3.5 assists per game to lead the team in both categories.

Head coach Takayo Siddle has led the program to at least 20 wins in each of the last four seasons but he'll be making his first NCAA Tournament appearance since taking the reins in 2020. UNC Wilmington recorded its only March Madness win when Jerry Wainwright was the head coach in 2002. The Seahawks played one Big 12 opponent during the 2024-25 season, losing 84-66 at Kansas on Nov. 19. See which team to pick here.

How to make Texas Tech vs. UNC Wilmington picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 152 combined points. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that hits in well over 60% of simulations. You can only get the model's picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Texas Tech vs. UNC Wilmington, and which side of the spread hits in well over 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that has returned more than $2,000 on its top-rated college basketball picks, and find out.