Spring training is well underway, so what better time to start running through our annual team-by-team previews? We're running these in reverse order of the 2015 standings, and now the Milwaukee Brewers are up.
Previous: Athletics | Phillies | Reds | Braves
Through 81 games in 2014, the Brewers were 49-32 with a 5 1/2 game lead in the NL Central. They've gone 101-142 since, including a 68-94 record in 2015 to earn a fourth place finish in what is arguably baseball's toughest division. Recognizing the uphill battle ahead of them, the Brew Crew have started a massive rebuild, one that saw them trade Carlos Gomez, Mike Fiers, Aramis Ramirez, Jonathan Broxton, and Gerardo Parra at the trade deadline, and Francisco Rodriguez, Adam Lind, Jean Segura, and Khris Davis this offseason.
The result? A thin MLB roster but also one of the better farm systems in baseball. Both Baseball America and MLB.com recently ranked Milwaukee's system as the ninth best in the game. At this time last year Baseball America ranked their system as the 19th best in baseball. That's a nice jump. All those trades have given the club a strong talent base. The young players are coming. Fans figure to endure some growing pains at the MLB level first. Let's examine the 2016 Brewers...
The lineup
As always, the lineup is a fluid situation for every team. Here is merely a best guess at the Brewers projected starting nine:
1. 2B Scooter Gennett
2. C Jonathan Lucroy
3. LF Ryan Braun
4. 1B Chris Carter
5. 3B Aaron Hill
6. RF Domingo Santana
7. SS Jonathan Villar
8. CF Kirk Nieuwenhuis
Projected bench players Will Middlebrooks and Rymer Liriano could push for playing time at third base and in the outfield, respectively. Catcher Martin Maldonado, outfielder Ramon Flores, and Rule 5 Draft pick utility man Colin Walsh are all bench candidates. Carter and Hill are stopgap veterans who were acquired to fill roster spots until a better, younger option comes along. For what it's worth, FanGraphs projects that offense to score 4.12 runs per game in 2016, ninth most in the NL.
Gennett, Lucroy, and Braun are the only returning regulars from last season -- Santana played regularly after coming over in the Gomez/Fiers trade -- and they'll anchor the top of the team's lineup. Lucroy had an MVP caliber 2014 season and a down 2015 season, mostly due to a concussion and a broken toe, and he is only under contract through 2017. As painful as it may be, the Brewers are hoping Lucroy bounces back in a big way in 2016 so they can trade him for more prospects.
Villar and Nieuwenhuis are simply placeholders for top prospects Orlando Arcia and Brett Phillips. Arcia is an elite shortstop prospect who crushed Double A in 2015, so he could be with the big league team by midseason. Phillips came over in the Gomez/Fiers trade and had a monster 2015 season, which ended in Double A. He's another midseason call-up candidate, though he recently suffered an oblique strain in spring training (not because of his laugh), which may delay his arrival.
From a rebuilding standpoint, Santana is the most interesting player in Milwaukee's lineup. He hit .231/.345/.421 (108 OPS+) with six homers in 38 games after the trade, and as August Fagerstrom of FanGraphs recently pointed out, the projection systems compare him surprisingly well to George Springer statistically. Santana, Arcia, Phillips, and the generally untradeable (but still productive) Braun will be the focal points of the offense going forward.
The rotation
Even after all their trades -- they made nine trades this offseason and 14 since the trade deadline -- the Brewers have what appears to be a competent starting rotation.
1. RHP Wily Peralta
2. RHP Jimmy Nelson
3. RHP Taylor Jungmann
4. RHP Matt Garza
5. RHP Chase Anderson
The Brewers would love love love to unload Garza and the $25 million left on his contract through 2017. They'd probably trade him right now for minimal return as long as it meant shedding that money. Peralta, while not as expensive as Garza, is another trade candidate. Both guys are coming off down, injury-interrupted 2015 seasons.
Nelson and Jungmann are bonafide rotation building blocks going forward, and I'm a bigger Anderson fan than most, so the Brewers have some nice pieces in their rotation. Ideally Nelson and Jungmann will one day settle in as the team's No. 3 and 4 starters rather than their No. 2 and 3. As much as I like those guys (Anderson too), they aren't projected to be frontline starters on championship caliber teams. They're more solid mid-rotation pieces.
As for depth, the Brewers brought back veteran southpaw Chris Capuano, who will be the guy who soaks up innings so the prospects aren't overworked. Prospects Jorge Lopez, Zach Davies, and Josh Hader are all expected to open the season at Triple A and could arrive in Milwaukee at some point in 2016. Both Lopez (No. 57) and Hader (No. 61) were ranked as top 100 prospects by MLB.com recently. The Brewers have some very impressive arms coming.
The bullpen
As is the case with all bullpens, especially bullpens on rebuilding teams, this picture is subject to change during the season. Reliever success can be fleeting, so don't be surprised if the Brewers look to move one or two of these guys during the summer before things fall apart.
Closer: RHP Jeremy Jeffress
Setup: LHP Will Smith, RHP Corey Knebel
Middle: RHP Michael Blazek, RHP Tyler Thornburg, RHP Zach Jones
Long: LHP Sean Nolin
Either Jeffress or Smith could end up the closer with the other setting up, and I wouldn't rule Knebel out of the ninth inning mix either. Manager Craig Counsell recently said he may opt for a co-closers system, with Jeffress facing the toughing righties in the eighth or ninth inning while Smith gets the tough lefties. From Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:
"It's open," Counsell said. "To me, that's not even a job, necessarily, right now. Someone's going to pitch the last three outs. It might define itself as the season goes.
"I see it like Jeremy Jeffress and Will Smith have pitched big innings, leverage innings for us and they will continue to do so. They will be asked to get the toughest outs of the game.
"We have to take advantage of the fact that Will's left-handed and J.J.'s right-handed and we will continue to take advantage of that. I think that's the right thing to do, because it helps us win games."
Jeffress, Smith, Knebel, and Blazek all had very strong 2015 seasons -- the foursome combined for a 2.73 ERA with 263 strikeouts in 237 1/3 innings -- so Counsell has a very strong back-end of the bullpen heading into 2016. Whenever the Brewers have a lead, they have the relievers to hold it.
Jones is a Rule 5 Draft pick, meaning he has to stick on the 25-man roster all season or be passed through waivers and offered back to his former team (Twins) before he can be sent to the minors. Nolin is out of options, so he has to pass through waivers to go to the minors as well. Those roster situations bode well for their chances to make the team.
Among the bullpen depth pieces are Capuano, Hiram Burgos, Yhonathan Barrios, David Goforth, Junior Guerra, Tyler Cravy, Cesar Jimenez, and Blaine Boyer. Given the general volatility of relievers and fluidity of bullpens, all those guys figure to get a chance at some point in 2016.
The outlook
As expected, our SportsLine projection system does not love the 2016 Brewers, pegging them for a 73-89 record. Considering they play in a very tough division -- the Cubs, Cardinals, and Pirates could all legitimately win 93+ games this year -- and are in the middle of a rebuild, 73 wins isn't too bad.
I don't expect the Brewers to contend in 2016 and you shouldn't either, but they do have a chance to sneak up on some teams this year. They won't be a pushover rebuilding club like the 2011-13 Astros, the 2013-15 Phillies, and the 2015 Braves. They have some offensive thump, some interesting young arms in the rotation, and a bullpen that will protect leads and keep deficits from getting out of hand.
The Brewers may not be a contender, but they have some young talent both in the big leagues and close to the show in the minors, plus trade chips like Lucroy, Garza, and Peralta give them a chance to add even more young talent through trades. Milwaukee is clearly on the right track and they may be ready to contend sooner than everyone thinks.
Coming Saturday: The Colorado Rockies.
