Game 1 of the 2024 World Series between the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers was perhaps the greatest Fall Classic opener of all. The instantly memorable moments were numerous, and none was more memorable than Freddie Freeman's walk-off grand slam in the 10th inning -- the first walk-off grand slam in World Series history. It was a thunderous moment, one made more unlikely by Freeman's ongoing ankle problems but also one probably made more likely by Yankee manager Aaron Boone's curious pitching decision in that decisive 10th inning.
The Dodgers' 6-3 triumph in Game 1 brings us to Saturday's Game 2. Obviously, this early in the series there's no such thing as a must-win contest, but the stakes are quite high in the second game of the series. If the Dodgers win and go up 2-0, then history suggests they have an 82% chance of winning the entire series. In the history of best-of-seven postseason series in Major League Baseball, 61 teams have gone up 2-0 after opening the series at home, and of those 50 went on to win the series in question. On the other side of things, if the Yankees prevail in Game 2 and even the slate at 1-1, then the World Series in essence becomes a best-of-five series with the Yankees holding home-field advantage (they'll host Games 3, 4, and 5).
As for the Game 2 specifics, lefty Carlos Rodón goes for the visiting Yankees, and he'll oppose right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto of the Dodgers. First pitch is scheduled for 8:08 p.m. ET. To further set the scene for Game 2, let's have a look at each team's leading question going into Saturday's critical contest.
Yankees: Will Aaron Judge find his vintage form?
The Yankee cloutsman and the heavy favorite to win the AL MVP award for the second time in his career, Judge in these playoffs has been far from his usual self. In Game 1, he went 1 for 5 with some strange swing decisions, and now for the entire 2024 playoffs he's slashing .167/.304/.361 with two home runs in 37 at-bats. Those rate-based numbers are drastically shy of his regular-season outputs and his career norms.
The sample size is tiny, yes, but the Yankees need more from him if they're going to win this series. Giancarlo Stanton has compensated exceptionally well for Judge's ill-timed slump, but the Yankees can't rely on that to continue. If what's going on is anything beyond sample-driven randomness, then it's probably found within Judge's eroding plate discipline. During the regular season, Judge swung at pitches 42% of the time overall and chased pitches outside the strike zone 18.5% of the time. During the 2024 postseason, however, Judge has swung at pitches more than half the time overall, and he's chased pitches outside the zone 27.5% of the time. At the same time, his whiff rate has spiked, and Judge in the playoffs is swinging at strikes less often than he did during the regular season despite a much higher overall swing rate.
Maybe he's pressing, as the default explanation usually goes, or maybe his capacity to track the ball and recognize pitches has taken leave at just the wrong time. Or, again, maybe it's just the sample size talking. Whatever the underlying cause, one has to believe the Yankees need a run of vintage Judge production if they're going to win this series.
Dodgers: Will Yamamoto give them what they need?
The 26-year-old Yamamoto, whom the Dodgers signed to a $325 million free-agent pact last winter, delivered when healthy during the regular season. He missed almost two full months with a strained rotator cuff, but around that injury Yamamoto pitched to a 3.00 ERA and 2.61 FIP in 18 starts and 90 innings. In three playoff starts, however, he has an ERA of 5.11 and an FIP of 4.71. He's also averaged barely four innings per start in this postseason, and he hasn't pitched into the sixth inning since early June.
Yamamoto looked stronger in his last start in NLCS Game 4 against the Mets, at least from an underlying command-and-control standpoint, but the reality is that he hasn't been a stabilizer for some time. Down to three healthy starting pitchers, the Dodgers could use some effectiveness and length from Yamamoto in Game 2, but he hasn't provided both at the same time in a long time. During the regular season, the Yankee offense was significantly more effective against right-handers, of which Yamamoto is one, than they were against lefties. Given that and Yamamoto's recent prevailing trends, the moundsman may be in for a challenge on Saturday.