Two games into the World Series, Aaron Judge is the weakest link on the New York Yankees. The presumptive AL MVP is coming off a monster regular season, one that was even better than his 62-homer effort in 2022, but after two Fall Classic games, Judge is 1 for 9 with six strikeouts, and his at-bats have largely been noncompetitive.
"It's just about getting in a good position," Yankees manager Aaron Boone said about Judge after Game 2 Saturday. "When you get into that good -- and everyone's different in how they do it -- you get in that strong position, that load where then the swing decisions follow that. I think he's kind of working through that. Once that happens, it happens like that."
Judge saw 21 pitches in his four at-bats in Game 2, took 11 swings, and missed on seven. Only seven of those 21 pitchers were fastballs. The Los Angeles Dodgers have buried Judge with spin -- sliders, curveballs, and sweepers -- and he seems to have fallen completely out of his approach, the approach that allowed him to post a .322/.458/.701 line during the regular season.
Judge's sixth-inning at-bat against Dodgers righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto tells you all you need to know. He took two pitches off the plate to get ahead in the count 2-0, then took a middle-middle fastball (!), fouled away a curveball, and swung through a splitter in off the plate for strike three. Here is the pitch sequence:
That is a hitter who is caught in between. Judge is so focused on spin -- understandably, given how much he's seen in these last two games -- that he took a 2-0 fastball down the middle. He's also flying open with his front hip. His timing is out of whack, hence all the swings and misses and foul balls. Judge is neither recognizing pitches nor timing them up properly.
"It always can be a little bit of a mechanical thing when guys go through a little funk," Boone said. "When they're just easily getting into their move and firing, then that's when you make your best swing decisions."
During the regular season, Judge swung at only 18.5% of pitches outside the zone, the second-lowest chase rate in baseball behind teammate Juan Soto. That number is up to 28.1% in the postseason, which is higher than the league average. His swinging strike rate has almost doubled from 12.9% during the regular season (league average) to 22.8% in the postseason (astronomical).
Through 11 postseason games, Judge is hitting .150/.280/.325 with a 38.0% strikeout rate. During the regular season, he struck out in 24.2% of his plate appearances, which is a tick more than league average and impressive for a hitter with this much power. As big as he is and as long as his swing is, Judge doesn't swing and miss excessively, at least not during the regular season.
Five times in two World Series games, Judge has batted with runners on base. These are situations where one swing -- not even a home run, a single would do -- changes the game and the series outlook for the Yankees:
| Game | Inning | Score | Base/out situation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 | 0-0 | Runner on first, one out | Strikeout |
1 | 6 | 1-0 Dodgers | Runner on first, no outs | Strikeout |
1 | 9 | 2-2 | Runners on first and second, two outs | Pop up to short |
2 | 1 | 0-0 | Runner at second, one out | Strikeout |
2 | 9 | 4-1 Dodgers | Runner at first, no outs | Strikeout |
In the ninth inning of Game 1, the Dodgers intentionally walked Soto to put two runners on base for Judge, something that would have seemed insane during the regular season but is reasonable now. Soto is on an October rampage (.350/.460/.700) and Judge is currently a postseason liability. Given the choice, of course you pitch to Judge over Soto right now.
Point is, those are five at-bats spread across two games in which Judge had a chance to make an impact -- again, not even with a home run, a single or a measly little walk would have sufficed -- and didn't. Four strikeouts and a pop up to shortstop, which is as close to an automatic out as a ball in play gets. Through two games, Judge's World Series win probability is a wretched minus-0.28.
This is very simple: either Judge hits and the Yankees have a chance to come back to win the World Series, or he doesn't and the Yankees don't. If Judge doesn't hit, the jig is up. The Yankees are not good enough to beat the Dodgers otherwise. Judge has time to flip the script but it needs to happen soon. As in Game 3. If not, the Yankees are likely done.
"That's ultimately what hitting is about, it's getting in the best position to make a good swing decision but also be in a strong position to get a good swing off," Boone said Saturday. "Everyone's different in how they do that, and I think he's working through that a little bit right now."
