Eliminated Teams >>> Looking at what's ahead for 2016
The Houston Astros lost a combined 416 games over the past four seasons coming into 2015, so even if the franchise appeared to be on the upswing because of good young players and an apparently bright front office, getting to the playoffs this season was seen as unlikely. And yet, the Astros started out strong behind a legit ace pitcher, a deep bullpen and a defense with a solid profile. They regressed, to be sure, but weathered a late-season storm that included them tumbling out of first place in the AL West while still remaining in the playoff field, albeit short of the World Series.
Now that the Astros have been eliminated, let's take a look back at an amazing 2015, and a look forward to a promising 2016.
What went right in 2015: It all went right, in a way, because the Astros made the playoffs -- even if it was just for a game. Few saw it coming, though general manager Jeff Luhnow was optimistic-sounding in the offseason. Everyone's optimistic in the offseason, of course. So, basically, nobody saw coming that the Astros would improve by 16 wins -- and 35 wins over two seasons -- and make the playoff field so quickly after three straight 100-loss seasons.
What about the details?
• The Astros were proved right to take Carlos Correa with the first overall pick in 2012. At age 20, he batted .279 with 22 homers, 14 stolen bases and an .857 OPS. He probably should win the AL Rookie of the Year, though Francisco Lindor of Cleveland will get a lot of votes.
• Good for manager A.J. Hinch, who organized them into a winner.
•Dallas Keuchel pitched better than pretty much everyone else in the American League, and Collin McHugh continued his remarkable career arc with a great second half that helped the Astros reach the playoffs for the first time in 10 years. Lance McCullers looks like another strong draft pick-turned-rotation mainstay.
• The bullpen was a big reason the team was so good in the first half. The Astros have done a good job of piecing together a core of strong relievers, bringing in pricey free agents (Luke Gregerson and Pat Neshek) and picking up castoffs (Will Harris, Josh Fields, Tony Sipp, Chad Qualls).
•Evan Gattis hit 11 triples, and he weighs, like, 260 pounds.
•Mike Fiers threw a no-hitter:
What went wrong in 2015: The Astros were as many as seven games ahead in the AL West, and were 14 over .500 before a regression that almost kept them out of the playoffs. No matter the outcome against the Yankees on Tuesday night, it put them in a position of needing to survive a one-and-done wild-card game, when it appeared they were heading for a division title. Division titles are much more marketable to fans and free agents. It was a missed opportunity, even if no one expected them to be here.
Several players hit below expectations/projections, notably Gattis and Chris Carter, who were counted on to do a lot of the heavy lifting. They weren't bad on the whole, per se (although they started out bad), but the Astros would have won the AL West had both not started out so weakly.
Jed Lowrie and George Springer sustained injuries that held them back, but are OK now and should be key players in 2016 and forward (particularly Springer).
Astros MVP: With a 2.48 ERA in a league-leading 232 innings, that's a pretty good indicator of value for Keuchel, who was among the three best pitchers in the AL, along with David Price and Chris Sale. The Cy Young race probably will come down to Price and Keuchel because Sale's ERA is too high. Keuchel probably will win it because Price already has one.
Astros LVP: This is a difficult assignment. Catcher Jason Castro hit .211 with a .648 OPS that translates into a 77 OPS+ (77!), but he was among the top pitch-framers in the league. How much value is there in pitch framing? There's some, certainly.
It's a similar problem with Jake Marisnick, who batted .236 (bad) with 24 stolen bases (good) and a .665 OPS (bad), but with lots of runs saved on defense. He's a great fielder.
A third choice is, stay with me, Carter. Carter had 24 homers and 57 walks (good), but it only metered out to a 100 OPS+. Average. And "average" for first-baseman/designated-hitter types actually is below average. You want those guys to be more valuable than average. Carter also hit six homers and had a 1.222 OPS in September/October, so it's likely the Astros would not be in the playoffs without him. Although, if he had hit anything like that earlier in the season, maybe they would have won the AL West.
Pending free agents: Left-hander Scott Kazmir figures to make a break for it, but he might be affordable given the plethora of pitchers available. Colby Rasmus typically posts low batting averages, but he hits for power, and was a plus defender in right field. Oliver Perez, Sipp and Joe Thatcher are left-handed, and frequently get the job done, relatively speaking.
2016 payroll commitments: After having an opening-day payroll of $74.5 million, the Astros have allotted $34.2 million for seven players for next season. Outfielder Carlos Gomez ($9 million), pitcher Scott Feldman ($8 million), infielder Lowrie ($7.5 million) and relievers Neshek ($6.5 million) and Gregerson ($6.25 million) are the priciest players. Note: Jose Altuve is locked in at $3.668 million for next season, which is one of the biggest values this side of Paul Goldschmidt.
Ten players are due salary arbitration, with Keuchel, along with sluggers Gattis and Carter and relievers Harris and Fields, among the most notable. Castro is headed into his third arbitration and Luis Valbuena his fourth, so they might be non-tender candidates (though Castro's pitch-framing skills might make him too valuable to let go just for a few bucks).
Biggest offseason decision: It would seem to be Kazmir, though he didn't pitch particularly well for them over 13 starts. So, the decision probably shifts to which other free-agent type(s) the Astros bring in. They figure to make a big splash somewhere.
2016 will be better if ... Carlos Gomez gets/stays healthy in center field, Correa continues to develop into one of the best young players in the league at shortstop, Springer stays on the field for 150 games, and the farm system continues sending contributors (and it is said to be loaded).
2016 will be worse if ... Altuve doesn't show up for spring training. Seriously, the Astros have crossed the rubicon from mere possibility to contender.
Ridiculously premature 2016 prediction: Correa will become the fifth member of the 40-40 club.