In one very important way, the Houston Astros' 2024 season was a disappointment. That's because they didn't win the World Series, and their first-round exit at the paws and newly sharpened claws of the Detroit Tigers meant that their run of making it at least as far as the ALCS for seven straight years came to an end. Still, the Astros this season claimed their fourth straight AL West title, and after reaching an early-season low point by dropping to 12 games under .500 in May they were one of MLB's best teams. All that raises hopes and realistic expectations of another contending season in 2025.
To get there, though, general manager Dana Brown faces a crucial offseason, the main story of which will be whether franchise third baseman Alex Bregman re-ups or signs elsewhere as one of the most coveted free agents available. That's far from the only important consideration for this contemporary dynasty of a club. As such, a closer look at the Houston winter to come is in order, and we'll undertake that right now.
Key free agents
- 3B Alex Bregman
- SP Justin Verlander
- SP Yusei Kikuchi
- RP Héctor Neris
- RP Kendall Graveman
- OF Jason Heyward
- OF Ben Gamel
- RP Caleb Ferguson
The big one here, as noted above, is Bregman. The Astros lifer is a free agent, and on Houston's watch he's put up an impressive 39.6 WAR across parts of nine major-league seasons, all of course with Houston. Bregman, 30, is coming off a 2024 campaign in which he put up an OPS+ of 118 with 26 home runs in 145 games. He also claimed the Gold Glove at the hot corner. In the past, Houston has been willing to let some of their key free agents walk, but Bregman's free agency comes at a time when the organizational talent pipeline isn't as strong as it once was. If the Astros are going to continue contending and winning, then Bregman or a suitable proxy needs to be added to the fold for 2025. Bregman's surely headed for a contract that's comfortably into nine figures and maybe even approaching $200 million.
Elsewhere, Verlander and the deadline addition Kikuchi present decisions for the Astros. There is some internal rotation depth, especially given the emergence of Hunter Brown and the ongoing presence of ace Framber Valdez, so Houston isn't as desperate as most clubs when it comes to starting pitching. There's also Ronel Blanco, and Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. are in line to return from injury for 2025. Spencer Arrighetti is there for depth, and Cristian Javier could provide some second-half depth after he returns from his June Tommy John surgery. Maybe there's an argument for a veteran known quantity to be added to the rotation, but it's not presently an urgent need.
Biggest needs
As noted, it's third base. The Astros last season ranked 10th in the majors in runs scored per game and eighth in OPS. It was a good offense, and one that in 2025 figures to have a much healthier Kyle Tucker (he looked like an MVP candidate before suffering the shin injury that cost him so much of last season). Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez are back, and Yainer Diaz looks like a special hitter by catcher standards. Still, the likes of Bregman makes the top half of that lineup look much better, at least in the near- to mid-term. Right now, Shay Whitcomb is likely in line to be the Astros' primary third baseman, and that's not a situation they should allow to persist.
Houston may again have issues at first base, and that's perhaps a spot worth addressing this winter. Jon Singleton returns, but he's really best deployed as a lefty bench bat and occasional platooner at first. Veteran options abound, but the Astros haven't exactly had a golden touch of late when it comes to external solutions at first base. It's typically a somewhat easy role to fill, but the Astros haven't enjoyed above-average production from first base since 2021.
Possible fits
Owner Jim Crane insists there's room in the budget for outside additions "without going crazy," but it's unclear just how much room once you account for commitments already on the books and what figures to be a sizable chunk of arbitration raises. As such, the Astros barring more willingness from Crane may be priced out of the top of the market – a top of the market that may include Bregman. That said, we of course have to include Bregman, as a reunion with the team that first drafted him back in 2015 is very much a possibility. Onward.
3B Alex Bregman, free agent: He's been amply detailed above. Overall, his 2024 was below his established standards in terms of offensive production. However, Bregman found his accustomed level of power as the season went on. On the downside, you can find enough signs of decline in batted-ball quality to raise some eyebrows.
3B Nolan Arenado, Cardinals: If Bregman walks, then perhaps a deal for Arenado is a possibility. The Cardinals are seeking out potential trade partners for the veteran third baseman, and Arenado may be amenable to approving a trade to an established contender like Houston. He's still aces with the glove, but the bat may be in decline. That said, Arenado lives and dies with power to the pull side, and the Crawford Boxes could aid him on that front. Trading for him is complicated by a no-trade clause and layers of deferred money, but the remaining commitment isn't an onerous one.
3B Yoán Moncada, free agent: Moncada still hasn't turned 30, and not so long ago he had All-Star upside. Perhaps with an actual functioning organization – i.e., not the White Sox – he'll be able to find his way to better health and sustained production at the plate. He's a risk, but he's also an intriguing reclamation project who's probably available on the cheap.
1B Pete Alonso, free agent: It's not certain whether the Astros will be willing to commit nine figures to a first baseman, but Alonso would no doubt help the cause in the near-term. There's a risk of premature decline with Alonso – and there may already be signs of it – but his power is fully intact going into what will be his age-30 season.
1B Paul Goldschmidt, free agent: After their experience with José Abreu, the Astros are probably loath to commit to a first baseman of Goldschmidt's age. That said, if the market pushes him down to a one-year deal, which is quite possible, then it might be worth taking a risk on him. The strikeout rate continues to creep up, but Goldschmidt still hits the ball hard.
1B Christian Walker, free agent: The Astros might not be willing to pay the going rates on Walker, who turns 34 in March. However, he's been a steady power producer over the last three seasons, and Walker's also an asset defensively at first base.
LHP Yusei Kikuchi, free agent: If the Astros decide they do need additional rotation depth, then a Kikuchi reunion would make sense. On Houston's watch, Kikuchi after the deadline shifted to a slider-heavy approach, and strong results followed. This could be a mutually beneficial pairing if the Astros are willing to meet the ask.