The Toronto Blue Jays have been bounced from the playoffs after falling to the Royals in the ALCS. Given that they entered the postseason as the favorites to win the World Series (per Vegas odds), this is a disappointing finish. Overall, though, it was the first trip to the postseason for the ballclub since 1993. They broke the longest playoff drought in the majors, saddling the Mariners (2001) with the dubious distinction.
Let's take a look both back and forward with the Jays.
What went right in 2015: They had the best run differential in baseball, won 93 games and broke the aforementioned playoff drought. In and of itself, that's a wildly successful season.
On an individual level, the offseason trade for Josh Donaldson was an overwhelming success, as he will likely win the AL MVP. He was joined by Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion to create one of the best power-hitting threesomes in an individual season in baseball history (they were the fourth team ever with three players with at least 39 home runs each).
This helped the Blue Jays to lead the majors in home runs and runs scored. They would also lead the league in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, doubles, walks and more.
Before injury, rookie second baseman Devon Travis was great. The Russell Martin signing was huge, as was the pickup on the cheap of Chris Colabello (.321/.367/.520). The Troy Tulowitzki addition helped greatly on defense and the Ben Revere pickup got them a nice table-setter.
Speaking of which, grabbing David Price in front of the trade deadline was a monster deal. Marco Estrada had a very good year, finishing fifth in the AL in ERA. Marcus Stroman was excellent once he returned and the back-end of the bullpen came together once rookie sensation Roberto Osuna took over as closer.
The Blue Jays were the best team in baseball after the All-Star break, thanks to going gangbusters in August with a 21-6 record.
What went wrong in 2015: Not a ton, but they did have some issues.
Namely, they went 15-28 in one-run games, which is just brutal for a first-place team. And can you believe they were 23-30 through the first end of a doubleheader on June 1?
Marcus Stroman's torn ACL in the spring hurt the rotation in the early-going. Drew Hutchison (despite a very misleading W-L record) was real bad (5.57 ERA), Aaron Sanchez was unable to stick in the rotation and veterans Mark Buehrle and R.A. Dickey were mostly mediocre.
The bullpen was awful through the first two months, too.
It must be said that Tulowitzki didn't perform well offensively after the blockbuster deal.
Blue Jays MVP: Donaldson, though Bautista, Encarnacion and Price deserve mention as well.
Blue Jays LVP: The offense in the ALCS. It helped carry them through much of the season, but mostly disappeared in the Jays' four losses to the Royals.
Pending free agents: Bautista ($14 million) and Encarnacion ($10 million) have club options that will certainly be picked up. Dickey's $12-million club option is an interesting decision. Maicer Izturis has a $3-million club option as well. The straight up free agents: David Price, Marco Estrada, Mark Buehrle, Dioner Navarro, Cliff Pennington and LaTroy Hawkins.
2016 payroll commitments: Factoring in Bautista and Encarnacion's club options, the existing salaries, arbitration raises and pre-arb salaries, the Blue Jays look to be in just a touch under $100 million. They opened this season with a payroll of roughly $116 million, but they did add several big contracts.
Given that the only commitments past 2016 are to Martin and Tulowitzki, the Jays can probably afford to be active in free agency. Keep in mind Toronto is a large market, ownership (Rogers) has very deep pockets and the fans haven't been this excited about the team in two decades.
Biggest offseason decision: How to round out the rotation. Buehrle is set to retire while Price and Estrada are free agents. Dickey's club option is probably too expensive, considering his age and production.
So, right now, the rotation for next season is Stroman, Hutchison and ... Sanchez?
The bet is they sign at least two free agents. They'll have to pony up handsomely to keep Price, but the hunch is they try.
Even if they miss on Price, there are a lot of options at starting pitcher in free agency.
Zack Greinke's the other big-time ace. The next step down has Johnny Cueto and Jordan Zimmermann, trickling down to Scott Kazmir and Jeff Samardzija.
Some of the lesser names that could be attractive in the right deal (which varies by name): Brett Anderson, Doug Fister, Ian Kennedy, Yovani Gallardo and Mike Leake.
And, of course, there's the chance they bring Estrada back to see if he can repeat his underrated 2015 season.
They probably need two of the above names and then would count on better efforts from Hutchison and Sanchez with a full season of Stroman.
2016 will be better if ... They round out a good rotation in free agency and learn how to win one-run games.
2016 will be worse if ... They don't land good starting pitching in free agency. That's about it. It's hard to see the offense not being awesome unless there are multiple major injuries.
Ridiculously premature 2016 prediction: They will once again have the best offense in baseball, but the pitching doesn't come together as well as it did this season. They contend all year but miss the playoffs, barely.
