The New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals will begin their best-of-five American League Division Series Saturday night. The winner of this series will advance to the league championship round, where they'll take on either the Cleveland Guardians or Detroit Tigers for the rights to both the AL pennant and a spot in the World Series.
There's much to look forward to, but resist the urge to get too mesmerized by the horizon because this Yankees-Royals series promises to be an entertaining one. At a minimum, it's guaranteed to feature the AL's two most productive players this season. Yankees slugger Aaron Judge is no stranger to the mainstream. He fell just a few home runs short of launching 60 for the second time in three tries, and he's likely to be rewarded soon with his second Most Valuable Player Award victory.
On the other side of the field is Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. Although Witt is a second-generation player and a former top draft pick and prospect, this is his first opportunity to hang his star on the national stage. If you know nothing else about him, you probably know that he's blessed with a dynamic skill set: he posted a 171 OPS+ during the regular season while notching his second career 30-30 effort.
It's the second part of that accomplishment, the 30 stolen bases, that we wanted to focus on today. We could delve into Witt's power, but let's face it: that sort of thing is self-evident. Conversely, the running game is often overlooked until it plays a role in the outcome -- then, with the benefit of hindsight, it looms as large as any home run.
With that in mind, here are three things worth knowing about Witt's stolen-base capacity and the Yankees' chances of slowing him down.
1. About Witt's base-stealing acumen
It's fair to describe Witt as an accomplished thief. He swiped 110 bases in his first three big-league seasons, the second-most in the majors over that time. (The only player with more steals? Atlanta Braves outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr., who last season alone stacked up 73 of those bad boys.) Witt's efficiency has waned year-to-year, but he's succeeded on an acceptable 76% of his career attempts to date.
Dedicated readers might remember that when we logged all of Shohei Ohtani's stolen-base attempts late in the season, we found that he had stolen 31 of his first 51 bases without drawing either a throw or a tag attempt -- our shorthand way of judging decision-making since catchers and infielders are likely to attempt one or the other if there's even a glimmer of hope. So we did the same for Witt, who stole 18 of his 31 bases without a throw or tag attempt, making him comparable to Ohtani on a rate basis.
This video depicts the quintessential Witt stolen base. You can see him grow more aggressive by the second, increasing his lead and then angling his body where it's clear he has eyes on taking the base. Witt deploys a drop step, bringing his lead foot into negative space as his first move. Once he manipulates his form, turning his shoulder and hips, he's off to the races -- all before the pitcher has brought the ball forward.
There were some noticeable differences between Witt and Ohtani. Witt was more likely to get the green light in concert with another baserunner, either in a trail-runner situation where he took an empty base or in true double-steal fashion. Witt was also, we must note, far more prone to being thrown out by both the pitcher and the catcher.
On the season, Witt drew 105 pickoff throws, according to TruMedia's database. He was cut down on just on seven occasions. He was far more likely to be picked off or thrown out after the pitcher had exhausted their disengagements. Indeed, he stole just one base all year when he had seemingly the baserunner's ultimate advantage.
2. About Yankees' baserunning prevention
Of course, Witt isn't the only actor who matters in this equation. The Yankees' battery -- and particularly the pitching part of the equation -- will have a say in his ability to swipe bags throughout the series.
During the regular season, the Yankees surrendered 122 stolen bases -- or roughly the league-average number. New York did have a few pitchers who were more susceptible to the stolen base than their peers. Marcus Stroman, Carlos Rodón, and Gerrit Cole combined to cough up 61 steals on 72 attempts (that's an 84.7% success rate).
The Yankees also ranked in the top half of the league in pitcher pickoff attempts, with Stroman leading the way at 61. The Yankees successfully nabbed 13 runners this season, though injured lefty Nestor Cortes was responsible for four of them.
Something we noticed from watching a smattering of Yankees pickoff attempts is that many of them appeared to be called for by the day's backstop -- usually by flexing their mitt in a way they didn't whenever a pitcher was actually about to be delivered. If you want to impress your friends, just say "pickoff" whenever you see the catcher make a similar movement to the one on display here.
3. What to expect this series
So, how is this matchup likely to play out? If history is any indication, the Yankees might be able to place a stop sign in front of Witt. They held him to zero steals on one attempt over the course of seven regular-season meetings.
Mind you, Witt didn't lack opportunities to steal a bag versus New York. He had 24 separate plate appearances during which he was on base and the next station was unoccupied. The Yankees were, nevertheless, able to keep him tethered to the bag in part because of a heavy diet of pickoff attempts. New York's pitchers threw over on nine occasions.
For reference, that was tied for the third most by any team against Witt this season -- that's a statistic that tends to correlate with games played, so it's notable that the Yankees finished with as many or more attempts as two of Witt's AL Central foes.
It's perhaps notable that the Yankees were willing to throw over multiple times against Witt, exhausting their engagements on three separate occasions.
Clearly, that approach worked well for them during the regular season. Will it prove as effective in October? A trip to the League Championship Series may hang in the balance.
