Why Chase Utley might be the biggest name to watch on this year's Baseball Hall of Fame ballot

As discussed over the last few weeks, this is a relatively weak Hall of Fame ballot and it gets significantly more crowded over the next handful of voting cycles. The weaker ballots, generally, present opportunities for borderline Hall of Fame candidates to make some good headway and get closer to induction.

Allow me to present borderline candidate Chase Utley. 

Utley has only been on the ballot twice so far, getting 28.8% of the vote his first try and 39.8% last year. How Utley fares in these next two voting cycles will likely end up going a long way in deciding if he's ever inducted into Cooperstown. 

Let's look at the case of fellow power-hitting second baseman Jeff Kent. He stagnated between 14% and 18.1% of the vote for each of his first six voting cycles. It was a really crowded ballot then. He finally started to rise late, getting up to 46.5% of the vote in 2023. Alas, it was too late (at least until the Contemporary Era Committee voted him in). Kent's timing was bad. Is Utley's better?

Utley is already nearly at 40% with the opportunity to rise above 50% this time around. To get to 50% of the vote in the third year of voting bodes very well for a candidate's chances of induction, historically, though there are always exceptions. Plus, names like Buster Posey, Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto and Zack Greinke in the next several ballots stand to overshadow Utley.

That's why watching Utley is probably the most fascinating case this year. Can he get up well above 50%, even closing in on 60%? If so, he'll probably get in, eventually. What if he flounders, though, and either loses support (incredibly doubtful) or only bleeds slightly into the 40s? That might make for an uphill climb. 

As noted, Utley is a borderline candidate. Mileage will vary per voter, fan, non-voting media and player alike. 

Utley finished his career a .275/.358/.465 (117 OPS+) hitter with 1,885 hits, 411 doubles, 58 triples, 259 home runs, 1,025 RBI, 1,103 runs, 154 steals and 64.6 WAR in parts of 16 seasons. The six-time All-Star won two pennants and a World Series across 16 seasons, parts of 13 with the Phillies and parts of four with the Dodgers. The rate stats are there, but the counting stats show a short prime, which is directly correlated to being a late bloomer -- he wasn't a regular at age 26 -- and a quick decline from his very high peak. 

There's room in the Hall of Fame for peak candidates, of course. Ryne Sandberg was "only" awesome for six or seven seasons. Utley had an absurd five-year peak during which his average season was .301/.388/.535, 135 OPS+, 39 doubles, 29 homers, 101 RBI, 111 runs and 7.9 WAR. Again, that was the average season for a second baseman over the course of five years. He was All Star-caliber the following season too, only held back by an injury.

There are currently 21 Hall of Fame second basemen, thanks to the selection of Jeff Kent. Utley sits 15th in WAR all-time among second basemen, but there's a big clump of players there. He's only 4.1 WAR from 10th (Robinson Cano) and is right on the heels of Sandberg, Roberto Alomar and Craig Biggio. 

Remember, though, Utley didn't compile. He's a peak candidate. The JAWS system loops in a player's prime (best seven seasons) with career WAR and Utley sits 12th there among second basemen, ahead of Alomar, Biggio and a good number of other Hall of Famers like Bobby Doerr, Nellie Fox, Tony Lazzeri and Johnny Evers. Utley is, again, right on the heels of Sandberg. And he's above the average Hall of Fame second baseman.

Does all of this necessarily mean Utley should be a Hall of Famer? Nah. I'm a yes for Utley as long as he's on the ballot due to that ridiculous five-year span combined with quality longevity, but there's enough shortfall in the counting stats to reasonably conclude that the Hall of Fame is fine without Utley. 

More than 60% of the voting body fell into the latter area last time around. Where things look after this vote will go a long way in determining his eventual fate regarding the Hall of Fame.