Major League Baseball's offseason is underway, and that means everyone is thinking about the future. In most cities, that means next season; in some, though, it means the bigger picture, the next three to five years. You're either selling wins or you're selling hope, the old saying goes. We here at CBS Sports like to provide as much hope as we can around this time of the winter by evaluating each team's farm system.
Of course, that doesn't mean every team has an equally good farm system -- some, as you'll find out throughout this process, are lacking in that respect. It does mean, nevertheless, that CBS Sports will be spending the next couple of months examining the top three prospects in each organization. We define "prospects" as retaining their rookie eligibility for the 2024 season, so if a young player is missing that's likely why.
These lists and evaluations are formed following conversations with scouts, analysts, and player development types. There's also firsthand evaluation and bias thrown into the mix. Keep in mind that player evaluation is a hard task, and it's fine if you disagree with the rankings. These are opinions, and they have no real bearing on the future. You can check out our winter top 25 list by clicking here.
With that in mind, let's get to it by dissecting the Chicago Cubs.
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF (22 years old)
- Top 25 ranking: No. 16
- The short version: Brilliant defensive outfielder with some offensive upside.
- MLB ETA: Debuted in 2023
Crow-Armstrong, acquired from the Mets at the 2021 deadline for Javier Báez, is one of the game's best young defensive outfielders. He moves well and throws well, and he should be in contention for a Gold Glove Award beginning in 2024. That much is certain. What's less sure is how Crow-Armstrong will perform offensively. He's learned to lift the ball with greater frequency as a pro, but he's paid rent on it in the form of a rising strikeout rate. It's probably reasonable to think of Crow-Armstrong's outlook as being something akin to Harrison Bader's days with the Cardinals. There are worse fates.
2. Cade Horton, RHP (22 years old)
- Top 25 ranking: No. 18
- The short version: Risky pick has and should continue to pay dividends.
- MLB ETA: Spring 2024
Horton finished his career at Oklahoma so strongly that the Cubs overlooked his seasonal 4.86 ERA and selected him seventh overall in 2022. He validated their choice in his first taste of pro ball, striking out 33% of the batters he faced across three levels, including a six-game stretch in Double-A. Horton has three pitches (a fastball and two breaking balls) that grade out as above-average or better. He throws enough strikes to comfortably project him as a starter, too. The one consideration that could prevent him from being part of Chicago's big-league rotation for most of next season is workload. The Cubs limited him to 88 innings (or about four per appearance) in 2023. The Dodgers took a similarly conservative approach with Bobby Miller before unleashing him last season. Perhaps the Cubs will follow suit. If so, Horton has a chance to give the middle of their rotation an early season boost.
3. Matt Shaw, INF (22 years old)
- The short version: Well-rounded infielder who should reach the majors this year.
- MLB ETA: Summer 2024
Shaw, the 13th pick in last summer's draft, batted .357/.400/.618 in his first 38 professional games, including a 15-game stint at Double-A to close out the season. Coming out of Boston College, scouts were torn on whether or not he should begin his career at shortstop -- with the detractors citing his below-average arm as a reason he won't stick there. The Cubs have continued to cross-train him at both middle-infield spots, as well as at third base. His collection of otherwise average or better tools, including an above-average stick, should nevertheless land him on the big-league roster this summer.
