By any measure, the 2016 season was a smashing success for the Cleveland Indians. Did it have a disappointing ending? Yes, of course. Losing Game 7 of the World Series stings. But winning 94 games during the regular season and pushing the best team in baseball to extra innings in Game 7 of the World Series is a heck of an accomplishment, especially with your best player (Michael Brantley) and two of your three best starters (Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar) injured.
The Indians are no longer a trendy World Series pick. They’re not even an underdog anymore, despite their relatively small payroll. The Indians are the preseason AL Central favorites and a legitimate World Series contenders, and they acted like one in the offseason by signing Edwin Encarnacion to the largest free-agent contract in franchise history. They’ll also have full seasons of Andrew Miller and the underrated Brandon Guyer in 2017.
At the same time, the Indians do have a clearly defined window for contention. They are a small-payroll team -- their $117.6 million payroll in 2016 was a franchise record -- and several core players will be eligible for free agency in the coming years. Carlos Santana hits free agency after 2017. Miller, Brantley and Lonnie Chisenhall after ‘18. Carrasco and Cody Allen will be free agents after ‘19. The time to win with this group is right now.
Fortunately, Cleveland is loaded and there are more than a few reasons to believe their current roster is better than the one that played in the World Series. Let’s break down the upcoming season for the Indians, shall we?
The vitals
- 2016 season record: 94-67
- 2017 depth chart: Click here.
- 2017 schedule: Click here.
How much will they get from Michael Brantley?
It’s easy to forget how good Brantley is at the plate. In 2014 and ‘15, the 29-year-old hit .319/.382/.494 (139 OPS+) with 90 doubles, 35 home runs and more walks (112) than strikeouts (107). Oh, and he stole 38 bases in 40 attempts. Brantley was, without question, one of the best hitters in baseball those two seasons. Few are this well-rounded offensively.
A pair of shoulder surgeries limited Brantley to 11 mostly ineffective games last season, and he was not part of their postseason roster. He is rehabbing from the second shoulder procedure right now and while he is behind the team’s other position players, Brantley has been playing in simulated games this spring.
Michael Brantley is taking part in another sim game today, with Cody Allen and Bryan Shaw pitching.
— Jordan Bastian (@MLBastian) March 13, 2017
Needless to say, the Indians are going to be cautious with Brantley following last year’s setback. Still, they have to be encouraged by how his spring is going so far. He’s swinging and facing live pitching, and his shoulder is holding up well. So far, so good. Getting Brantley back is going to be an enormous addition to the lineup. Speaking of ...
This might be the best offense in the AL.
Brantley’s ability to rebound from shoulder surgery is going to play a big role here. One, is he healthy? And two, if he is healthy, how quickly can he regain his 2014-15 form? It’s not uncommon for players to need some time to get back up to speed following shoulder surgery.
Fortunately, the Indians are so loaded that they’re going to score a ton of runs even if Brantley is something less than his 2014-15 self. Encarnacion steps in to replace Mike Napoli, who had a fine 2016 season but is no Encarnacion, and otherwise everything else remains the same. Here is manager Terry Francona’s go-to lineup during the 2016 postseason:
- DH Carlos Santana
- 2B Jason Kipnis
- SS Francisco Lindor
- 1B Mike Napoli
- 3B Jose Ramirez
- RF Lonnie Chisenhall
- LF Brandon Guyer
- CF Tyler Naquin
- C Roberto Perez
Swap out Napoli for Encarnacion and that’s the current lineup, with Brantley still on the mend. Once healthy, Brantley figures to factor into the 3-4-5 spots somewhere. That lineup averaged 4.83 runs per game in 2016, behind only the Red Sox (5.42) among AL teams. And, according to FanGraphs, the 2017 Indians project to average 4.86 runs per game, trailing only the Astros (4.96) and Red Sox (4.91) among junior circuit ballclubs.
Keep in mind youngsters like Lindor, Ramirez and Naquin all have room to grow offensively. Santana and Kipnis are both smack in the prime of their careers with no concern about age-related decline. How does Brantley rebound from surgery? How does Encarnacion adjust to his new ballclub and ballpark? Those are the only questions facing this dynamite lineup, and, frankly, I’m not too worried about the latter at all. This team is going to score and score a lot.
Andrew Miller, true relief ace.
Francona rewrote the book on modern bullpen usage last postseason. He used Miller in what he deemed the most important moments of the game regardless of inning, often extending him for multiple innings. Allen threw multiple innings on the regular as well. Setup man Bryan Shaw was the third man in this arrangement.
That won’t happen during the 2017 regular season. You can push relievers like that in the postseason, when every game means so much, but doing it across the 162-game regular season is a recipe for burnout. Use Miller like that during the season and he’ll be out of gas by June. Same with Allen and Shaw. It’s a marathon, not a sprint.
The multiple innings thing won’t happen often, if it all. The usage patterns will remain, however. Francona has already confirmed Allen will remain the closer, freeing up Miller for what I call the “moment of truth.” Two on with one out in the seventh inning? Go to Miller. Bases empty in the eighth with a middle of the order due up? Go to Miller. So on and so forth.
Francona has proven to be a master bullpen manager, and giving him a weapon like Miller means the Indians are going to have arguably the most dominant reliever in the game on the mound in every crucial situation. Rather than limit Miller to, say, the eighth inning as a setup man, using him as a flexible relief ace could net the club a few extra wins.
Is there going to be a World Series hangover effect?
For Corey Kluber, specifically. The injuries to Carrasco and Salazar meant the Indians had to lean heavily on their ace in October, so much so that he made three starts on short rest, including his final two starts of the World Series. By Game 7 against the Cubs, it seemed the 2014 AL Cy Young award winner had hit a wall, understandably.
All told Kluber threw a career-high 249 1/3 innings last season, and he also had the shortest offseason of his career. It’s fair to wonder whether that huge workload will carry over and have some sort of effect this year. It has happened plenty of times before. That World Series hangover is a very real thing, and some guys deal with it better than others.
There’s good news for the Indians though. Kluber is the only member of the rotation who endured such a huge workload. Carrasco and Salazar were hurt at the end of the season and if there’s a silver lining to their injuries, it’s that they’re not coming off big workloads. Trevor Bauer and Josh Tomlin, Cleveland’s two other primary starters in the postseason, threw 203 2/3 and 191 2/3 innings last year. That’s a lot, but not an insane amount.
Furthermore, the Indians have some rotation depth, even with Cody Anderson recently going down with an elbow sprain. Mike Clevinger is a top rotation prospect who got a taste of the show last season. Ryan Merritt showed his mettle during his gutty ALCS Game 5 start. Carlos Frias, Adam Plutko and Shawn Morimando serve as further depth. Cleveland has some options should injury strike again.
It’s fair to wonder whether Kluber will feel any sort of lingering effect from last year. He threw not only a ton of innings, but a ton of high-pressure innings. The Indians have enough depth to bring Kluber along slowly if they feel it’s necessary, whether that means pushing a start back a few days or pulling him from a start a little earlier than usual. I think this is something worth watching but not panicking about.
Probable lineup
The best-case scenario for the Indians is a healthy Brantley and a healthy Yan Gomes. If that plays out, Francona’s lineup could look something like this:
- DH Carlos Santana
- 2B Jason Kipnis
- SS Francisco Lindor
- 1B Edwin Encarnacion
- LF Michael Brantley
- 3B Jose Ramirez
- RF Lonnie Chisenhall
- C Yan Gomes
- CF Tyler Naquin
Bench: C Roberto Perez, UTIL Michael Martinez, OF Brandon Guyer, OF Austin Jackson
Yeah, that lineup is ridiculous. There are some bench spots still up for grabs -- Jackson is coming back from knee surgery and Martinez is not on the 40-man roster, for example -- with Abraham Almonte, Erik Gonzalez and Chris Colabello among those vying for roster spots, but the starters are fairly set.
Probable rotation
Carrasco and Salazar are both healthy now, and while Francona has yet to reveal his Opening Day starter, his rotation figures to line up like so:
- RHP Corey Kluber
- RHP Carlos Carrasco
- RHP Danny Salazar
- RHP Trevor Bauer
- RHP Josh Tomlin
Clevinger is the No. 6 starter for the time being and he’ll inevitably make starts at some point. Don’t get mad at me, Indians fans. No team gets through a season using only five starters these days. That’s baseball.
Probable bullpen
Not only did the Indians get a sweet deal on Encarnacion, they also got lefty Boone Logan on a nice two-year contract late in the offseason. Logan held lefties to a .142/.222/.255 batting line with a 33.6 percent strikeout rate in 2016. Logan and Miller will not be fun for AL Central lefties like Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Alex Gordon, Brandon Moss, Joe Mauer and Max Kepler. Here is Francona’s projected relief crew:
- Closer: RHP Cody Allen
- Setup: LHP Andrew Miller, RHP Bryan Shaw
- Middle: LHP Boone Logan, RHP Dan Otero, RHP Zach McAllister
- Long: LHP Hoby Milner
Milner is a Rule 5 Draft pick from the Phillies, meaning he either has to remain on Cleveland’s active 25-man roster all season, or be offered back to Philadelphia. He had a 2.49 ERA with 76 strikeouts in 65 relief innings between Double-A and Triple-A in 2016.
Don’t sleep on Otero. He was excellent last year and is a very nice fourth piece behind Allen, Miller, and Shaw. All the rotation depth pieces (Clevinger, Frias, Anderson, Merritt, Morimando) could factor into the bullpen picture, and others like Nick Goody, Shawn Armstrong, Kyle Crockett and Perci Garner are around as depth.
SportsLine projection: 91-71 (first place in AL Central)
