Cubs president Jed Hoyer in 2021 watched his team fall from first place to nine games out in just two weeks and then made the decision to rip the Band-Aid off. It was a sell-off leading into a rebuild that he and owner Tom Ricketts swore wouldn't be as extreme as the last rebuild.
And it hasn't been. The Cubs went 71-91 in 2021 and then 74-88 in 2022 before returning to contention. That's much better than the bottoming out that saw 101 losses in 2012. Of course, the last rebuild led to three straight NLCS, three NL Central titles and a World Series. Right now, the Cubs are owners of back-to-back 83-win seasons and the 2024 version was a moderate disappointment.
Is the build toward something bigger still on or are the Cubs stagnating? There sure doesn't seem to be much urgency here.
Let's take a look.
Key free agents
- RP Drew Smyly
- SP Kyle Hendricks (already signed with LAA)
- C Yan Gomes
- C Christian Bethancourt
- RP Yency Almonte
- RP Jorge López
As can be seen, the Cubs really aren't losing much here in free agency. Smyly provided the most value last season as a lefty reliever who could get a little length while López was great in his stint. It was brief, though, and relievers are volatile by nature.
Biggest needs
As can be surmised from the above free agents section, the Cubs can basically return with their 2024 team intact. Every single position-player starter is under contract, including Cody Bellinger, who exercised his player option. That means Miguel Amaya at catcher, Michael Busch at first, Nico Hoerner at second, Dansby Swanson at short, Isaac Paredes at third and the outfield/DH spots going to Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong (CF), Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki.
Under normal circumstances, continuity like this from a team with a winning record would be a positive, but they were only 83-79. They ranked 12th in runs, 17th in average, 10th in on-base percentage and 17th in slugging percentage. No one hit more than 25 homers. They were 21st in baseball in home runs as a team. This simply isn't good enough.
The problem is this is a collection of either average or pretty good players with no stars. Some of them -- Bellinger, Suzuki, Happ -- are capable of playing like stars at times, but not at a superstar level for a full season.
The rotation could be set as well with Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, Javier Assad and Ben Brown. It's a good rotation. The Cubs ranked sixth in rotation ERA last season, but they were only 12th in innings from starting pitchers. While Imanaga and Steele can pitch like frontline starters at times, the rotation is similar to the offense in that it's just a group of average or good players instead of having any stars or superstars. To put it simply, they lack a true ace.
When I say they need stars, it's not about fame and celebrity. No, I'm saying they need star production from elite talent. As an example, Swanson led the team in WAR this past season at 4.0. The 2016 World Series champion Cubs had Kris Bryant winning MVP with 7.3 WAR, flanked by Anthony Rizzo, a superstar with 5.8 WAR, two Cy Young candidates (Jon Lester 5.5 and Kyle Hendricks 5.2) and 2015 Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta (4.5).
Boil it down and the biggest need is pretty simple: The Cubs need players who can put up superstar production, not just a collection of 3-4 WAR players. They need needle-movers.
Possible fits
The slow-play approach remains the status quo here for Hoyer. Multiple reports have painted the general perspective that the Cubs plan to stay the course and trust their internal strategy from the last few years. The front office still firmly believes in the long-term vision. More specifically, the Cubs are not expected to be bidding on the major free agents, including Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes.
This flies in the face of what I believe is the biggest team need with the star production. If they just landed Soto and Burnes alone with the rest of the roster as is -- which, to be very clear, would be an incredibly tall order -- they'd be the NL Central favorites and a threat to win the World Series. Monetary efficiency and a conservative build remain the plan.
Instead, they'll either trade from the big-league roster or the deep farm system in order to find upgrades. Think about the deal for Paredes to get an idea of what kinds of moves Hoyer seems willing to make this offseason. We should also keep in mind that, with said deep farm system, any big-league starter sticking around means a prospect is blocked and could be traded. Among the prospects that could be on the move would be outfielders Owen Caissie, Kevin Alcantara and Alexander Canario (though he's technically not a prospect anymore).
Knowing all this, in looking for possible fits, we're limited to guessing which players would be available in trade and maybe mid-tier free agents. First, though, we should point out if the Cubs are going to improve the big-league roster by trading from it, we have to figure out which players might be traded. The most logical trade candidates would probably be Hoerner (one year and $12 million left before free agency), Happ (two years, $40 million) and Taillon (two years, $36 million).
Much like building a winning roster without stars in a mega-market, this will be difficult.
Max Fried - It's very likely that Fried is priced out of where the Cubs want to go this offseason, given all the reporting we've seen about them not wanting to spend big. He'd be a great fit and wouldn't cost any trade capital, though.
Mariners SP - The Mariners missed the playoffs despite a stellar rotation, as their offense was bad. Are they willing to deal Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryan Woo or Bryce Miller? Any of those would make a fine addition to the Cubs' rotation, at least in theory. And we know Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto isn't shy about trading.
Nathan Eovaldi - We've seen it all from the man heading to his age-35 season, everything from the top-five Cy Young finish to the playoff ace pedigree to the injury woes and inconsistency. The sweet spot between all that could mean a good deal in free agency.
Walker Buehler - He was terrible in the regular season, his first year back from Tommy John surgery. By the World Series, though, Buehler looked like his old self. With only two full seasons under his belt, he definitely doesn't seem 30 years old, but that's what he'll be next year. Maybe a one-year deal to show he's all the way back? The Cubs had success with a similar setup on Bellinger.
Roki Sasaki - Finally headed to MLB after the Chiba Lotte Marines announced plans to post him, the Japanese ace with a career 2.02 ERA will garner plenty of interest and the Cubs will likely be among the heaviest bidders. He seems separate from the whole "not bidding on top free agents" thing, too, given his age and relatively low cost. Or, at least, he should be.
Anthony Santander - As noted above, the Cubs desperately need to add more power. You might've missed it last season with all the Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani hype, but Santander hit 44 homers. He's now a free agent.
Brent Rooker - Under A's team control through 2027, it's possible Rooker is made available via trade given his monster 2024 season and age (he's now 30). He hit 39 homers with 112 RBI and a .562 slugging percentage last season. He'd find Wrigley Field a lot more hitter friendly than Oakland Coliseum, too, unless the wind blows in all year again.
Eugenio Suárez - He had a 116 OPS+ with 30 homers last season. In the second half, Suárez hit .307 with a .602 slugging and 20 homers in 65 games. Such a move would require Paredes to either be traded or shifted to second with a Hoerner trade.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - Hey, I've gotta throw some huge names in here, right? The word is that it remains unlikely the Blue Jays would trade Guerrero, as they hope to re-sign him long term. He is only under team control for one more year, however, and the clock is ticking. If the Blue Jays do make him available, the Cubs should put themselves in the front of the line. They have the prospect currency to make the deal necessary and the financial wherewithal to extend him after a trade. He'd be the middle-of-the-order star the Cubs are sorely missing.
Rafael Devers - File this one under "pipe dream." It would totally work for this roster and also isn't happening.