After four straight AL Central titles, a run that included three trips to the ALCS and one to the World Series, the Detroit Tigers have now missed the playoffs two straight seasons. They did, however, improve by 12 wins in 2016 and were in contention into the last week of the season. Among the bright spots were the renaissance of ace Justin Verlander, a bounce-back for Victor Martinez, big years from Miguel Cabrera and Ian Kinsler, a big start for Jordan Zimmermann and a huge finish for Justin Upton. Oh, and Michael Fulmer emerging as the Rookie of the Year.
On the downside, Upton and Zimmermann on the whole weren’t good for the full season. Anibal Sanchez was awful and there were injury issues.
The vitals
- 2016 record: 86-75
- 2017 depth chart: click here
- 2017 schedule: click here
What needs to go right?
The back end of the rotation
Verlander and Fulmer shouldn’t be questions, but the bottom three carry huge question marks.
Zimmermann will be 31 this year. His arm carries a Tommy John surgery and about 1200 innings of wear on it. His ERA rose exactly a run from 2014 to 2015. He was the best pitcher in baseball last April, but the rest of the season he had a 6.84 ERA. He was also hampered by injuries, including to his neck. Maybe the injuries caused the downturn in production and he’ll be fine in 2017. Maybe not.
Sanchez led the AL in ERA in 2013. Starting that season, though, here’s how his ERA has gone, season by season: 2.57, 3.43, 4.99, 5.87. Despite only throwing 157 innings in 2015, he led the AL in home runs allowed at 29. Last year, he gave up 30 homers in 153 1/3 innings while giving up a career-worst 10.0 hits per nine innings.
Is there anything left in the tank? His velocity late last season was down three miles per hour from his prime, and that’s significant. We did see Verlander learn to pitch differently last season, though, and Sanchez is reportedly working on some tweaks to his delivery this spring (mlive.com).
And then there’s the young and talented lefty, Daniel Norris. Back and oblique issues have plagued him the past two seasons. He was held to just 69 1/3 innings last season. He did throw well when he got the chance, though, posting a 3.38 ERA and 71 strikeouts, though he could stand to walk fewer hitters (22).
If the Tigers get full seasons close to the top-end of reasonable expectations from these three, they’ll have a good rotation. And they already have a good offense. Well, mostly.
The bottom third of the offense
The top six in the batting order is top-shelf. Here’s what the expected bottom three in the order did last year, though:
Tyler Collins: .235/.305/.382, 86 OPS+
James McCann: .221/.272/.358, 70 OPS+
Jose Iglesias: .255/.306/.336, 76 OPS+
Now, those guys are all playing premium defensive positions and, as such, offense takes a back seat. Still, the offense looks basically non-existent and you would love to get at least some production from those spots to make it a more well-rounded batting order.
Just getting those three closer to, say, a collective 90 OPS+ would go a long way in making this offense one of baseball’s more formidable.
Health
It’s obvious for every team that it needs to avoid major injuries, but the Tigers have several players that are either pretty old, injury prone or both. We already covered Zimmermann and Norris. Victor Martinez’s knees have bothered him for years and helped create what looks like an inconsistent handful of up-and-down seasons. J.D. Martinez only played in 120 games last year while Nick Castellanos only saw action in 110. Ian Kinsler is going to be 35 this year, Verlander is 34 with a ton of mileage on his arm and closer Francisco Rodriguez is 35 with 920 career appearances.
Every team needs to stay healthy, but the Tigers in particular seem to have several pratfalls in this area.
Let’s say everyone stays on the field the whole year, though. It’s possible. If that’s the case, there’s a lot of talent here.
If things go wrong?
Big downside
I said several times this past offseason that no team was more variable than the Royals heading into 2017, but the Tigers are pretty close. You could paint a pretty rosy picture where the things mentioned above come together perfectly and the Tigers take the AL Central. There’s elite upside in the offense, good upside in the rotation and the back-end of the bullpen would be good enough to see all of it result in low-90s in wins.
Of course, man, there are a lot of areas where this thing could go south. What if Verlander’s huge bounce-back was only temporary? What if Fulmer’s rookie year was a fluke? We already discussed the downside in the back three. Age and injury concerns could make the offense sub-par, too. The downside is actually be low-70s in wins. It’s not outrageous. They only won 74 in 2015.
It might be even lower than that, too, because ...
Possible fire sale
Let’s say things go south very early and the Tigers realize in July they need a whole new direction. We already heard whispers over the winter they might start dealing some players. The most obvious name would be J.D. Martinez. He’s a free agent after the season.
But, there’s more. In fact, the team could be somewhat gutted if they wanted to.
Kinsler only has a club option for 2018. Victor Martinez is a free agent after 2018. So is Iglesias. K-Rod is a free agent after this season. All those guys could easily be moved, depending upon health/performance this coming season. If he somehow retains any value at all this season, Sanchez is a free agent after the year with a club option for next year, so maybe someone would take a shot at him as a rental.
If things get really crazy, it must be noted that Verlander is only signed through 2019 with a vesting option for 2020. If he’s having a great year and everything else has gone to crap, it’s not out of the question that a team would trade for him.
The only contracts that likely aren’t moveable are Cabrera, Upton and Zimmermann.
We can’t say they’ll deal anyone or everyone listed here, but the possibility looms. A bad first two months in Detroit and we start hearing a lot about the trade deadline. Keep an eye open early.
As is generally the case, the most extreme possibility in the positive and most extreme possibility in the negative aren’t very likely at all. We’ll probably see something in the middle. Given the state of the White Sox and Twins at this point, along with what I expect to be another step back from the Royals, I’ll say the Tigers again finish in second place and outside the playoffs. That then means hard decisions will need to be made in the offseason, because with such an old nucleus, not making the playoffs or tearing it down is just treading water.
Probable lineup
- Ian Kinsler, 2B
- Nick Castellanos, 3B
- Miguel Cabrera, 1B
- Victor Martinez, DH
- Justin Upton, LF
- J.D. Martinez, RF
- Tyler Collins, CF
- James McCann, C
- Jose Iglesias, SS
Probable rotation
- Justin Verlander (R)
- Michael Fulmer (R)
- Jordan Zimmermann (R)
- Daniel Norris (L)
- Anibal Sanchez (R)
ALT: Mike Pelfrey (R), Matt Boyd (L)
Sanchez can’t have a long leash here in front of Boyd, but he has the huge contract so that gives him a shot.
Probable bullpen
Closer: Francisco Rodriguez
Setup: Justin Wilson (L), Alex Wilson (R)
Lefty: Daniel Stumpf or Kyle Ryan
The rest: Bruce Rondon (R), Mark Lowe (R), Pelfrey/Boyd/Sanchez
SportsLine projection: 79-83, third place, AL Central