Earlier this season, I wrote that the Braves shouldn't fire obvious lame-duck manager Fredi Gonzalez because it wouldn't really accomplish anything. I stand by that. He's playing the few prospect-type players they have every day and otherwise has a stale roster that isn't equipped to win. The fact that he got fired Tuesday doesn't really accomplish anything, outside maybe some PR to please the few disgruntled fans who are still paying attention this season.
That doesn't mean I think he's a great manager who should never have been fired, however. In fact, I count at least three other specific dates where it made a lot more sense to fire Gonzalez than right now. Let's take a stroll down memory lane.
1. Oct. 8, 2013
Gonzalez was coming off a season in which his Braves went 96-66 and won the NL East by 10 games. You can't fire a guy coming off that, right? Well, we need to look at the context. The Nationals completely tanked that season and the rest of the NL East was terrible. In and of itself, Gonzalez couldn't help that. His team merely took advantage.
Still, egregious playoff mishaps can lead to change for the better. Just ask the 2003-04 Boston Red Sox. This wasn't exactly Game 7 of the ALCS for an at-the-time tortured franchise, but it was still pretty bad:
David Carpenter had a very good season in 2013, but he's not Craig Kimbrel. Kimbrel was arguably the most dominant closer on the face of the Earth at the time, and he was left helplessly watching the defining moment of the Braves season:
Had the Braves won this game, they still might have lost the series. A win would've only tied the series, 2-2. The Braves were set to play that game at home, however, where they were 56-25 during the regular season, compared to 40-41 on the road. They would have also survived Clayton Kershaw, who worked on short rest in Game 4. Sure, they were set to face Zack Greinke, but they beat him in Game 2 at home.
Holding Kimbrel back for the flawed logic of "what if he can't finish two innings?" is a mentality tied to a stat (the vaunted save) that has long needed to be changed. If Kimbrel can't finish two, then you go to Carpenter. But don't do it backward and lose with your best watching from the bullpen. Not with the season on the line. If you lose, you lose with your best.
I'd have fired Gonzalez for this, but not just because of one mistake. Instead, it would be due to wanting to hire a manager who isn't so rigid as to think he has to "save" his closer to ensure he gets the last out of the game. That shouldn't be the mindset in a do-or-die game and it could have -- you never know! -- cost them a World Series championship.
2. Sept. 22, 2014
If Gonzalez were given another chance, the 2014 season should have sealed his fate. Coming off the 96 wins and his playoff debacle, his Braves led the NL East for most of April and May. They were tied for first as late as July 20. After a win on July 28, they were 10 games over .500 and holding the top NL wild card spot.
They then lost eight straight.
Things temporarily got back on track, as they won seven of eight soon thereafter and inched to within 1.5 games of a wild card spot, but they would go an awful 11-22 the rest of the way. Going back to July 28, the Braves went 21-35 after that point in the season. Only Arizona was worse among all 30 MLB teams.
That is unacceptable under the circumstances.
The Braves were eliminated from playoff contention on Sunday, Sept. 21. Firing Gonzalez the following morning would have been fine timing.
3. Oct. 5, 2015
The Braves went through a rebuilding season in 2015 and finished 67-95. If Gonzalez wasn't in the plans to be the manager of the future and Braves don't mind firing him on Tuesday, why didn't they just do it the day after last season and start the process anew in 2016 with a new manager? They haven't yet promoted many of the youngsters, but there are a few (Mallex Smith and several pitchers).
The timing is just a bit of a head-scratcher. The Braves had to know they were going to be terrible this season. If they didn't like Gonzalez, why did they start the season with him? It's weird, that's all.
Still, plenty of Braves fans are likely happy right now. Gonzalez should have already been gone and I count at least three specific dates going back to the Kimbrel incident in L.A.
