There's no better way for a pitcher to leave a lasting impression on the final day of the season than to throw a no-hitter, and that's what Henderson Alvarez did on Sunday. The Marlins' sinkerballer raised his offseason Fantasy profile with his no-no against the Tigers, but is there really any reason to target him in mixed leagues for 2014?
The key to Alvarez's future value is whether he can become even a decent strikeout pitcher. Though Alvarez posted a respectable 3.59 ERA this season, and his 5.0 K/9 ratio was better than last year's 3.8, he was still one of the majors' most contact-prone pitchers.
Since 2000, a few pitchers -- from Ben Sheets to Justin Verlander -- have blossomed into strikeout pitchers after posting a low strikeout rate in a season prior to reaching the age of 24. The record is not so good for young pitchers with back-to-back years of K/9 ratios below 6.0. But as the recent history of Trevor Cahill shows, there is a precedent for that kind of anemic strikeout production (K/9 below 5.5 in '09 and '10) to lead to a close-to-average K/9 rate later in one's career (K/9 above 6.2 in '11, '12 and '13).
Cahill has been a solid deeper mixed league option the last three seasons, and with better control, Alvarez could surpass his Diamondbacks counterpart in WHIP and ERA. A rich man's Cahill -- that's the upside Alvarez presents going into next season.