The 2024-25 offseason has been highlighted by the free agency of a generational talent in Juan Soto, who has signed a 15-year deal for $765 million with the Mets. We've also in the process of our annual discussion of the Hall of Fame, with ballots due by the end of 2024 and the 2025 class set to be revealed in late January. Efficient as we are, why not just combine the two and talk about just how generational Mr. Soto is?
Sure, I'll do it. Let's get to it.
Soto has already logged seven big-league seasons and he's only 26 years old. His birthday is in October, though, so 2024 counted as his age-25 season.
The rate stats
Soto is now over 4,000 plate appearances. He's hit .285/.421/.532, good for a .953 OPS, 160 OPS+ and 158 wRC+. The league batting average has been between .243 and .252 annually since he debuted while the league average OPS has been between .708 and .758.
We could look in a lot of different places, but the bottom line is Soto has been one of the best hitters in baseball pretty much since the time he debuted. The rate stats paint the picture of someone who is more than 50% more productive than even the average player.
Since Soto's debut, he ranks 29th in batting average, first in on-base percentage (leading by 14 points), fifth in slugging percentage (behind Aaron Judge, Mike Trout, Yordan Alvarez and Shohei Ohtani), fourth in OPS and fourth in wRC+ and OPS+.
Basically, Soto has been a top-five offensive producer in his first seven seasons and he's only just hitting what's likely his prime.
He's absolutely on a Hall of Fame track here.
The counting stats
Keep in mind, again, that Soto is only through his age-25 season. He already has accumulated 934 hits, 179 doubles, 201 home runs, 592 RBI and 655 runs. He's also walked 769 times and has 36.4 WAR.
Just to get some idea of the pace, let's use Miguel Cabrera. Miggy debuted at age 20, but didn't have to deal with a shortened COVID season early like Soto did. He racked up 11,796 career plate appearances, lasting into his age-40 season. Soto is signed with the Mets now through his age-40 season, so we've got a decent comp here. Let's say Soto gets to 11,500 plate appearances in his career. This puts him on the following paces:
- 2,627 hits
- 504 doubles
- 565 home runs
- 1,665 RBI
- 1,842 runs
- 2,163 walks
The walks total would be third all-time behind Barry Bonds and Rickey Henderson. The other numbers are all eye-popping and absolutely Hall-worthy.
He's also on pace here for more than 100 WAR. The only right fielders to have ever gotten to triple digits are Babe Ruth, Henry Aaron, Stan Musial, Mel Ott and Frank Robinson.
Obviously, players sometimes burst onto the scene and are amazing from the get-go and then fade away quicker than expected -- or at least look like one of the best players ever and then settle into merely all-time great status. Unfortunately, we saw it with Ken Griffey Jr. and are probably seeing it with Mike Trout. Just keep in mind all of this above isn't to say Soto is definitely going to be one of the greatest players we've ever seen, on par with Ott and Robinson. It is to say he's on pace to get there, though, with a very firm foundation of elite-level play.
The hardware
Let's get this one out of the way: a player does not need to win an MVP to be a Hall of Famer. The Hall has a decent number of members who never won one. Mariano Rivera got 100% of the vote and never won. Derek Jeter at 99.7% was also sans MVP. If you want an outfielder, how about Tony Gwynn? He got 97.6% of the vote and never won an MVP. He topped out with a third-place finish.
Soto finished second in 2021, fifth in 2020, sixth last season and third in 2024. He's already a four-time All-Star with a batting title, five Silver Sluggers and a World Series champion who has been part of two pennant winners. He's already been to the LCS with three different franchises and has a career .927 playoff OPS with 11 homers in 43 playoff games.
Historical comparisons
This won't be exhaustive, since we already made some historical comparisons above, but let's look at where Soto is through his age-25 season compared to some of the previous high-level performers at such a young age.
- He's 17th all-time in WAR through age 25, trailing 12 Hall of Famers, Mike Trout, A-Rod, Albert Pujols and Andruw Jones. Some of the players behind Soto? Joe DiMaggio, Ted Williams, Musial, Bonds, Willie Mays and that probably says enough.
- Soto is one of nine players to reach 200 homers through his age-25 season. The others? A-Rod, Jimmie Foxx, Eddie Mathews, Ott, Mickey Mantle, Robinson, Pujols and Trout.
- He ranks 16th in RBI through age 25.
- He is 11th in runs through age 25.
- The only other players with at least 575 runs and RBI through age 25 are Ott, Mantle, A-Rod, George Davis, Ty Cobb, Foxx, Pujols, DiMaggio, Aaron, Mathews and Al Kaline.
- The only players with at least 3,000 plate appearances through their age-25 season and an OBP of over .420 are John McGraw, Joe Kelley, Foxx, Mantle, Arky Vaughan and Soto. McGraw and Kelley both played in the 1800s, when the game was significantly different for hitters.
- Soto has already been on base 1,719 times. The only players to get on base more times through age 25 were Ott, Cobb and Mantle.
- He has 395 career extra-base hits, good for 19th all-time through age 25.
To reiterate, it's entirely possible Juan Soto will stumble. We've seen it before. But if you zero in on the type of company he's keeping on these lists, all of these players had some level of staying power. You won't find even a Darryl Strawberry type (who, by the way, finished with 1,000 RBI and more 300 home runs and ranks 44th in WAR among right fielders -- hardly a bust). The closest thing to a collapse would be Andruw Jones and he still might make the Hall of Fame.
Baseball Reference runs a statistical analysis to find the most similar players in careers and also by age. Through age 25, Soto's most similar comparisons are Bryce Harper, Frank Robinson, Ken Griffey Jr. and Mike Trout.
That'll play just fine with his monster contract.
And though he's already played five seasons with the Nationals -- and won the World Series -- things now point toward him wearing a Mets cap when he's enshrined in Cooperstown.
