Chris Sale of the Braves and Tarik Skubal of the Tigers were both named first-time Cy Young Award winners on Wednesday night. They are both power lefties who led the charge for playoff teams, but where the two diverge is much more interesting. Before the season, Sale looked washed up, a last-ditch effort from the Braves to squeeze out whatever talent was still left in the 35-year-old veteran. Skubal was a promising up-and-comer who probably needed another year post-surgery before truly contending for the Cy Young while his Tigers too seemed a year away.
And here they are, two stud southpaws polishing their trophies after stellar work in 2024.
Sale finally breaks through
After five seasons, the easy and obvious bet was that Chris Sale would retire as one of the great close-but-no-cigar Cy Young candidates. It had been enough time that this win -- which once looked like a foregone conclusion -- had become a total longshot.
A phenom from the start, Sale was a first-round pick in 2010 and debuted later that season, making 21 appearances in relief. He headed into the next season as a top-20 prospect. He was one of the better relievers in baseball in 2011, then the White Sox correctly decided to move him into the rotation.
Sale kicked off a seven-year run where he made the All-Star team every single time and his average season was 14-8 with a 2.91 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 240 strikeouts in 198 innings, along with 5.6 WAR. His finishes in Cy Young voting, respectively: 6th, 5th, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 2nd and 4th. That was through his age-29 season, culminating with the 2018 Red Sox World Series championship.
One of the few things missing from his resume was that elusive Cy Young and he was so close. Surely one day he'd break through and win it, he and I and you said.
Instead, he took a big step back in 2019, missing out on the All-Star Game and failing to get a single Cy Young vote. Then he needed Tommy John surgery. He only returned to make nine starts in 2021. Injuries continued to plague him, as he made only two starts in 2022 and 20 in 2023, pitching to a 4.30 ERA.
The Braves traded for Sale for his age-35 season. He hadn't put together a good, full season since 2018. And he went out and had one of the best seasons of his career.
Back in 2010, a Cy Young seemed a decent bet. Maybe not inevitable, but the pure talent was there. Fourteen years later, he finally got there.
Skubal's insane run after injury
Like Sale, when Skubal was younger, few would have argued a statement like, "he's going to win a Cy Young someday." He was considered one of the top pitching prospects in baseball in 2020 and 2021. It's just that, given his major injury, if Sale's Cy Young came late, Skubal's came probably a year early.
On Aug. 17, 2022, Skubal underwent flexor tendon surgery in his pitching elbow. He had a 4.15 ERA in 299 career MLB innings, which was good for a tidy 100 ERA+ (that is, he was exactly league average).
Skubal, who celebrated his 28th birthday on Wednesday, made it back in 2023 and looked amazing down the stretch. In 15 starts, he was 7-3 with a 2.80 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 102 strikeouts against only 14 walks in 80 ⅓ innings. Skubal was coming off major elbow surgery and barely managed 80 innings. Given that he threw 117 ⅔ in 2022 and a career high 149 ⅓ in 2021, any Cy Young predictions would likely have been for 2025.
Sure, it was expected that Skubal would be good in 2024, but what kind of workload would be permitted by the Tigers, especially since it was possible they wouldn't contend? What if they traded him at the deadline?
Instead, Skubal worked 192 innings and the Tigers kept him. He went 18-4 with a 2.39 ERA (170 ERA+), 0.92 WHIP and 228 strikeouts against only 35 walks. He led all pitchers in strikeouts and WAR, with 6.3, while pacing the AL in wins and ERA.
I would say Skubal is now in line to win multiple Cy Youngs, but we know -- thanks to pre-2024 Chris Sale -- just how hard it is to win this award.
What we have today is two winners, one who rose to the top after a five-year hiatus of contention and one who arrived a year ahead of schedule. And neither is done just yet.