Eliminated Teams >>> Looking at what's ahead for 2016
At least when the Giants do the every-other-year thing they reward their fans with World Series titles. The Nationals twice in the past four seasons had the best record in the NL and were bounced from the NLDS. They followed up the 2012 effort with a disappointing season and missed the playoffs. They have now followed up the 2014 effort with an even-more-disappointing 2015 season.
Let's take a look back and then see how general manager Mike Rizzo might piece this back together for 2016.
What went right in 2015: Yunel Escobar put up the best offensive season of his career, Denard Span was good when he could stay on the field while rookies Joe Ross and Michael Taylor showed good signs at times.
Overall, perhaps amazingly, the Nationals rank third in the NL in runs.
Max Scherzer and Drew Storen were awesome for roughly half the season while Stephen Strasburg closed it strong. Jordan Zimmermann was good, albeit not great.
Oh, and Bryce Harper is having one of the best offensive seasons in recent memory.
What went wrong in 2015: I'll try to be brief, because the list is real long.
Scherzer and Storen fell apart down the stretch.
Strasburg was terrible before an injury. Doug Fister was bad enough early to be removed from the rotation. Gio Gonzalez was mostly just mediocre.
Injuries certainly hurt, with Span, Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon and several pitchers affected.
Rendon wasn't nearly as good as he was last year when he did play.
Ian Desmond was brutal for most of the season.
Matt Williams doesn't seem like a great manager, continually making poor lineup and bullpen decisions, though he's far from alone here.
Finally, it really does seem like Rizzo deciding to trade for Jonathan Papelbon messed with the chemistry of a first-place team. Storen fell apart pretty quickly afterward and the Nationals turned a three-game lead into a five-game deficit within three weeks (though we have to credit the Mets, too, for getting real hot). It could be a coincidence, sure, but it also might not be that this all happened around that trade.
Nationals MVP: Please. Harper's the NL MVP.
Nationals LVP: The Papelbon trade. Everything was fine and if they needed to trade, maybe some depth for a banged-up outfield would have done the trick. Or a reliever that wouldn't insist on closing and taking over for a perfectly acceptable closer who is well-regarded in the locker room. No, I don't think chemistry should totally be discounted here.
Pending free agents: OF Denard Span, SP Jordan Zimmermann, SS Ian Desmond, SP Doug Fister, OF Nate McLouth ($6.5M club option), RP Matt Thornton, RP Casey Janssen ($7M mutual option), OF Reed Johnson, 2B Dan Uggla
2016 payroll commitments: After having a payroll north of $175 million this season, the Nationals are down to just $94.4 million in committments for next season. The arbitration raises should take them over $130 million, but there's still room to play here, assuming they don't want to (Desmond, Fister, etc.) or can't (Zimmermann) re-up with any outgoing free agents.
Biggest offseason decision: How to spend the money.
Sure, Rizzo needs to decide whether or not to fire Matt Williams, but the roster still needs some care. First off, I really think they should just trade Storen. He's been jerked around so much and had plenty of negative moments with the franchise. Let him free.
As for the rest ...
The rotation could be: Scherzer, Strasburg, Gonzalez, Joe Ross and Tanner Roark with a few backup type options (such as youngster A.J. Cole) internally. Basically, they can leave the rotation.
It also wouldn't be ridiculous to think that -- going around the diamond -- Wilson Ramos, Zimmerman, Rendon, Trea Turner, Escobar, Werth, Taylor, Harper is enough to be a winning lineup.
So do the Nationals spend big to upgrade the bullpen in front of Papelbon? Do they try to upgrade somewhere like catcher (Matt Wieters is a free agent and familiar with the area) or left field (Yoenis Cespedes, Justin Upton or Alex Gordon, who has a player option he might not accept)? Maybe a very good fourth outfielder who can start in center in case Taylor can't produce well on an everyday basis throughout the season? Gerardo Parra fits the bill and he's a free agent, much like all the above names.
Do they even think about seeing what Scott Boras would accept for a Bryce Harper extension?
(I'll pause for laughter.)
2016 will be better if ... The youngsters they are ready to lean on can adjust well to the majors and the veterans like Scherzer, Strasburg and Rendon return to previous form. It really shouldn't be too difficult to return to the playoffs.
2016 will be worse if ... Rizzo completely botches the offseason.
Ridiculously premature 2016 prediction: Bryce Harper wins his second straight MVP. Oh, and Stephen Strasburg puts it all together just in time for free agency.
