We're closing in on the end of the 2026 regular season in Major League Baseball and some of the individual awards are pretty settled. National League Rookie of the Year, for example, has felt like it was one guy's award to lose for a few weeks. Some news on Wednesday, however, might crack the door open a little bit for a late surge.
The Cardinals have activated second baseman JJ Wetherholt from the injured list, more than two weeks after he went down with right wrist tendinitis.
So, with a week and a half left of the regular season, let's look at the top four ROY candidates. All odds are from DraftKings.
Sal Stewart, Reds, -2500
The case here is simple: power. Stewart has 31 home runs and 107 RBI. In the case of the RBI, he's just four off the MLB lead and only two rookies in history have ever led the majors in RBI (Ted Williams in 1939 and Walt Dropo in 1950). Stewart is already the 14th rookie to record at least 30 homers and 100 RBI.
This is the type of stuff that a few decades ago would've guaranteed a Rookie of the Year award for anyone and it might well do it now. After all, just look at the odds.
In the era of advanced metrics, however, we cannot discount the chance that someone else supplants Stewart. He only has 2.2 WAR, as his value is solely tied to the power metrics. He's hitting .266/.335/.470 (122 OPS+) with negative defensive value. He does have 15 stolen bases, but, again, the argument here is pretty much all power.
Is that enough? The odds say so right now.
Nolan McLean, Mets, +1200
The right-hander is 11-9 with a 3.24 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 184 strikeouts in 166 ⅔ innings this season, good for 2.6 WAR. It's a decent case, but not an overwhelming one. He's scheduled for two more starts, so there's only so much more positive damage he could do. Unless he does something like throw two shutouts -- which would be a monster upset given that the Mets have settled into having him go around six innings a start -- McLean is likely ticketed for second or third place here.
JJ Wetherholt, Cardinals, +3500
In his 130 games, Wetherholt has hit .242/.343/.370 (106 OPS+) with 14 doubles, 17 home runs, 48 RBI, 88 runs and 14 stolen bases. Thanks to his on-base chops, baserunning and especially his excellent defense, Wetherholt is the WAR leader here at 4.7, which carries some weight with voters these days. I'm not sure it's enough to overcome Stewart's home run and RBI totals, but there's certainly enough here to justify Wetherholt's inclusion in the discussion.
Probably the most fascinating aspect of this race here is the fight between WAR and an old-school stat like RBI. There's a narrative bouncing around these days that voters care too much about WAR and make it the "be-all, end-all" stat, but that isn't even remotely true. If it were, Wetherholt would be the overwhelming favorite here. Instead, Stewart seems likely to win with his home run and RBI totals carrying him.
Carson Benge, Mets, +7500
In 145 games, Benge is hitting .272/.336/.416 (111 OPS+) with 19 doubles, three triples, 18 home runs, 58 RBI, 78 runs and 22 steals with 3.5 WAR. It's been a very good rookie season that is worthy of seeing some love in voting, even if it's just a smattering of third-place votes.
