Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Paul Skenes faced the Chicago Cubs for the third time in his young career on Wednesday afternoon (GameTracker). Skenes had what amounted to a modest outing by his lofty standards. He surrendered three runs (two earned) on five hits and a walk over five innings of work. Skenes struck out six of the 21 batters he faced, and saw his seasonal ERA increase from 2.16 to 2.23.
Possibly as notable as Skenes' performance was what the start represented: the first time in his brief big-league career that he's encountered an opponent for the third time, as well as the first time he hasn't improved on his subsequent performance versus that team. Take a look at how Skenes had previously fared in repeat matchups, as judged by Bill James' Game Score metric. (You can read more about that here, but it's essentially a formula that uses box-score inputs to gauge start quality. Scores range from 0-100, but almost all fall within the 40-70 range.)
| Opponent | First meeting | Second meeting | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
Cubs | 43 | 82 | 39 |
62 | 76 | 14 | |
50 | 51 | 1 | |
71 | 75 | 4 |
Skenes' Game Score against the Cubs on Wednesday was 52, according to ESPN.
Past statistical research suggests that pitchers tend to have the advantage whenever they first encounter a batter. It stands to reason that effect is true whenever a pitcher first encounters an entire lineup. That effect decays with repeated exposure as hitters get more information about the pitcher and his repertoire. Skenes, then, was seemingly overdue for a start like Wednesday's, when he didn't show an improvement over his most recent effort against a club.
Nevertheless, it's clear that Skenes has staying power. He entered Wednesday having amassed a 2.16 ERA (192 ERA+) and a 5.20 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his first 17 starts. He's attempting to become the first player in Major League Baseball history to start the All-Star Game and win both the Rookie of the Year and Cy Young Awards in his first season after being drafted. (Fernando Valenzuela did all of that, but he wasn't drafted and he had previous big-league experience heading into his banner season.)
Skenes' next start is slated to take place on Tuesday. His opponent? None other than these same Cubs.
