Though they were essentially eliminated from contention when they lost 12 of 14 through Sept. 12, the Pirates hung around on the periphery of the NL wild-card race until earlier this week. And now, after winning 94, 88 and 98 games, respectively, in the past three seasons -- all playoff seasons -- the Pirates have a chance to finish below .500.
When this happens, we sometimes have the tendency to wonder if the run is over. Is the proverbial window closed when it comes this Pirates nucleus contending? For me, I don't believe it is. Not even close.
Obviously there's work to be done in the offseason by general manager Neal Huntington and the rest of his front office, but the foundation of a championship-caliber ballclub is still strong.
First off, for next season, the Pirates could definitely use some bounce-back seasons, most notably from Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole.
From 2012-15, McCutchen hit .313/.404/.523. This year, he sits at .256/.336/.433. He's 29 years old, so he shouldn't be in an age-related decline just yet. The best guess is that once his career ends, we'll look back at the 2016 season as an outlier. He's just better than this and sometimes the easiest way to break out is to turn the calendar.
With Cole, triceps and elbow injuries limited him to 21 starts, but even when he took the hill he wasn't the same guy as in 2015. His ERA jumped from 2.60 to 3.88, his WHIP from 1.09 to 1.44. Still, he finished fourth in NL Cy Young voting in 2015 and he's only 26. The strikeout rate falling is a bit concerning, but let's keep in mind the arm issues. Peripheral indicators like FIP (3.32) and BABIP (.345) suggest Cole was pitching better than his ERA says, though.
Basically, it's not folly to count on Cole and Cutch being All-Star-caliber players in 2017.
They shouldn't be alone, either. Starling Marte is a legitimate star and he'll be 28 next season. Gregory Polanco joins McCutchen and Marte to form an outfield capable of being the best in baseball.
The nucleus doesn't stop there. A full and healthy season from Jung Ho Kang would help. Veterans Francisco Cervelli, David Freese, John Jaso and Josh Harrison are under contract. Quality bullpen arms Tony Watson (closer), Antonio Bastardo and Felipe Rivero will be back. If Rivero could get his walks under control, he could be dominant and he's only 24. So there's obviously room for improvement with experience.
Speaking of which, the Pirates' ability to return to contention doesn't rest only with McCutchen and Cole bouncing back. They'll also need some of their youngsters to grow at the big-league level.
Josh Bell is 24 and can play first or the outfield. He's shown flashes of great talent through just 142 plate appearances, hitting .286/.387/.429 with three homers. How about this one? An opposite field shot off Jake Arrieta:
Perhaps most impressive with Bell, given his age, experience level and the climate of baseball today is that he's walked (21) more often than he's struck out (16).
Utility man Adam Frazier could really develop into a useful player as well. Through 63 games as a rookie, he's hitting .298 with a .355 on-base percentage. It doesn't seem fluky, either, as he was a career .299 /.363/.370 hitter in the minors.
Maybe top prospect Austin Meadows (a center fielder) is ready to contribute at some point, but he only managed to hit .214 in Triple-A this season. He's only 21, so don't count out a mid- or late-season contribution to the Pirates in 2017.
They shouldn't ignore the chance for possible upgrades in the offseason, but I firmly believe a McCutchen, Marte, Polanco, Bell, Harrison, Kang, Frazier, Cervelli position-player nucleus is enough to contend, at least in the wild-card mix.
On the mound, rookie Jameson Taillon has shown enough to believe the prospect hype was legit. We haven't gotten to see as much of Tyler Glasnow, but the upside is evident.
With just the names already listed, you don't have to squint too hard to see a contender here, especially on the position player side. Cole, Taillon and Glasnow could be part of a very good rotation, too, but the other two spots need to be addressed.
Perhaps they find a way to fill the spots admirably from within. Drew Hutchison is still only 26 and a full year with pitching guru Ray Searage could do the trick. Rookie Chad Kuhl has had eight quality starts in 13 overall starts.
They could also go outside the organization, such as bringing Ivan Nova back via free agency (he's been great for the Pirates in 10 starts since coming over via trade) or trading for a mid-level arm. Even if they think the rotation will be Cole, Taillon, Glasnow, Kuhl, Hutchison to open the season, more depth is needed. They should no longer be trusting Jeff Locke to hold down a rotation spot and injuries happen.
To reiterate, there's work to be done. By no means should Huntington be sitting back this offseason believing that the Cole/McCutchen bonce-backs along with the younger players improving means another playoff berth in 2017. Improvements need to be made, but wholesale changes do not. This is still a club with a very strong foundation for success in 2017.
