After an injury ruined 2014 season that saw them go 67-95, the Rangers bounced back in 2015, going 88-74 and winning the AL West title. They were eliminated by the Blue Jays in Game 5 of the ALDS on Wednesday in chaotic fashion. Let's look back at their season and ahead to 2016.
What went right: Many of the players who were injured last year had strong bounce-back seasons, including Prince Fielder and Shin-Soo Choo. Mitch Moreland, Robinson Chirinos and Rougned Odor all had good years despite some bumps in the road, and Rule 5 Draft pick Delino DeShields Jr. emerged as a legitimate starting center fielder. Keone Kela was a bullpen force.
The Rangers also had a very productive trade deadline, not only adding Cole Hamels but also relievers Sam Dyson and Jake Diekman, who were huge parts of their late-season surge to the division title. Texas had the third-best offense in baseball (4.64 runs per game) and their pitching was good enough (100 ERA+). The Rangers were a very well-rounded club that did nothing poorly and everything at least decently in 2015.
What went wrong: Injuries are unavoidable, of course, and the Rangers suffered a big one when Yu Darvish blew out his elbow in spring training and needed Tommy John surgery. Derek Holland and Martin Perez also missed big chunks of the season, forcing the team to rely on the likes of Wandy Rodriguez and Ross Detwiler at times. Holland, Perez and Darvish combined for 24 starts.
Elvis Andrus had another disappointing year (80 OPS+) and Josh Hamilton, who came over from the Angels earlier in the season, was both hurt (50 games) and unproductive (94 OPS+). Others like Leonys Martin and Tanner Scheppers were non-factors. The Rangers had to improvise at times this year and sometimes the replacements (Chi Chi Gonzalez, Spencer Patton, etc.) didn't provide much help.
Rangers MVP: Adrian Beltre, again. This is what, year four or five in a row now? He shook off a slow start to finish the season with a 110 OPS+ and a team-leading (by far) 5.8 WAR. Even at 36, Beltre is still a star-caliber producer.
Rangers LVP: Hamilton. He wasn't awful, but he wasn't healthy and he didn't give the team much of a lift either. Left field has been an issue for the Rangers the last few years and the hope was Hamilton would solve it. Didn't happen.
Pending free agents: Yovani Gallardo, Mike Napoli, Colby Lewis, Drew Stubbs, Will Venable, Kyle Blanks, Ross Ohlendorf
2016 payroll obligations: According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, the Rangers have approximately $120 million on the books next season. Moreland, Diekman, Martin, Chirinos and Shawn Tolleson are their only notable arbitration cases. The Rangers have had a payroll in the $145-million range the last two years, and assuming the postseason trip leads to a payroll increase, GM Jon Daniels will have some money to work with this winter.
Biggest offseason decision: The Rangers are pretty locked into their starting lineup, and the bullpen is in good shape with Kela, Tolleson, Diekman and Dyson, so I guess that means the rotation by default? Darvish is coming back at some point, plus they'll have Hamels for a full year, but losing Gallardo is a blow. (My guess is Lewis comes back.) Full seasons from Holland and Perez will help only if they don't repeat their 86 ERA+ and 95 ERA+, respectively. Another starter would be a big help.
2016 will be better if ... Darvish, Holland and Perez all rebound from their 2015 injuries and combine to give the Rangers 75-plus starts or so next year. Also, steps forward from young players like Odor and DeShields will help as well.
2016 will be worse if ... Injuries continue to plague the rotation and veteran position players like Fielder, Choo and Beltre begin to slow down. Fielder and Choo are not that old (31 and 32, respectively), but Fielder is already a full-time DH and Choo isn't much of a defender in the outfield.
Ridiculously premature 2016 prediction: The Rangers went 88-74 this year even though their run differential (plus-18) suggests they should have been closer to 83-79. They'll be a better team next year in terms of outscoring their opponents but will still only win 88-89 games. That'll be good enough to contend, both in the AL West and for a wild-card spot.
