Eliminated Teams >>> Looking at what's ahead for 2016
At 60-82, the Cincinnati Reds aren't making the playoffs. That's not really a statement that would surprise anyone who has been paying attention all season, but they were recently mathematically eliminated from contention, so it's time to look both backward and forward.
What went right in 2015: Remember the All-Star Game in Cincinnati? That seems ages ago, but Cincy was the host to the Midsummer Classic this season and the event was spectacular. The new format for the Home Run Derby breathed new life into the event and it was Reds' third baseman Todd Frazier who stole the show. Aroldis Chapman pitched a spotless ninth in the actual All-Star Game, again giving the home fans a thrill.
Unfortunately, that stuff didn't really matter for the regular season Reds. On that front, we saw Joey Votto is still capable of being and MVP-caliber performer. Frazier has 74 extra-base hits. Billy Hamilton has 56 steals while only having been caught eight times, which is a huge improvement over last season. Eugenio Suarez looks great, too.
Chapman is still himself and J.J. Hoover is having a great season in front of him.
On the rotation, the Reds have found that Raisel Iglesias has big upside and there's reason to believe in Anthony DeSclafani. We've seen some flashes from Michael Lorenzen and other youngsters, too.
What went wrong in 2015: The injury-related fiasco with Devin Mesoraco led to an embarrassing tirade misguidedly directed toward local media by manager Bryan Price. And a 4-0 start still wasn't enough to prevent the Reds from being eight games under .500 and 15 1/2 out in the Central by the aforementioned All-Star break.
Thus, the Reds went into sell mode and said goodbye to ace Johnny Cueto along with starting pitcher Mike Leake and left fielder Marlon Byrd.
Of course, they didn't go all out and sell Chapman or Jay Bruce, which seems questionable, given the state of the franchise and the division surrounding it.
Also, it's worth mentioning that Billy Hamilton still can't steal first base. His speed could be an unbelievable weapon if he could get on base at better than a .274 clip. As things stand, it's only an occasional weapon.
Finally, Homer Bailey's injury needs to be mentioned along with Mesoraco's. Those hurt.
Reds MVP: Votto is hitting .315/.459/.555 with 31 doubles and 27 homers. This isn't even close. Sadly, some Reds fans would still argue this point because of Votto's contract.
Reds LVP: I'm going with Price. I don't think the Reds would have contended even with a great manager, but his tirade screams "I'm in over my head" and it was early enough in the season to affect the locker room psyche.
Pending free agents: Sean Marshall (remember him?), Manny Parra and Brayan Pena. Skip Schumaker has a club option while Burke Badenhop has a mutual option.
2016 payroll commitments: There are $78 million worth of guaranteed committments with arbitration and pre-arbitration salaries pushing the payroll to an estimated $110 million.
Biggest offseason decision: See that payroll? Yeah, that's probably not acceptable to ownership, given what we've been hearing the past several years. That means the biggest decision(s) will be which guys to sell off. Chapman and Bruce are obvious candidates. Votto probably can't be dealt due to his salary. How about Brandon Phillips? He's still vastly overpaid with $27 million over two seasons left, so the Reds would have to eat most of that. Still, they could shed some of that while using Suarez and Zack Cozart up the middle.
I do think Price needs to be fired, but I don't consider that the biggest decision. The roster makeup is much more important. Given the excellent manner in which the Cubs, Pirates and Cardinals are set up to continue their success, the Reds need to continue their overhaul as they look to build for the future.
2016 will be better if ... Bailey and Mesoraco avoid injury while Bruce returns to pre-2014 form, Votto does what's doing and the youngsters in the rotation come together.
2016 will be worse if ... GM Walt Jocketty sits on his hands in the offseason and just leaves the team as is. They'll get worse before they get better, so he needs to be proactive in looking beyond 2016 and into 2017. They can't do a massive rebuild like the Cubs or Astros did due to the Votto contract -- and you don't wanna completely waste the rest of his prime anyway -- but a rebuild-on-the-fly should continue.
Ridiculously premature 2016 prediction: We'll be doing this same article in early- to mid-September again.
