Washington Nationals 2018 season team preview: A monumental year for the Nats?

The Nationals could lose a lot of talent after 2018, including Bryce Harper

By R.J. Anderson

Mar 21, 2018 at 7:46 am ET • 4 min read

This is it for the Washington Nationals. This is, in all likelihood, the last ride for Bryce Harper, who is expected to get handsomely paid once the season ends. The Nationals, then, are facing down an ugly possibility -- the possibility they will have failed to win a postseason series during Harper's time in town.

But that's the worst-case scenario. There is reason for optimism. The Nationals have Harper, after all, and a new manager -- yes, again -- and a talented roster that should find itself once more trying to notch the first postseason series victory in franchise history.

Let's look beyond the Harper situation at what awaits.

The vitals

2017 record: 97-65 (plus-147 run differential)
2018 depth chart: Click here
2018 schedule: Click here
Fantasy preview: Click here

Another cake walk?

Last season, the Nationals won the National League East by 20 games. This year, the gap isn't expected to be as severe. The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies both improved this winter, leaving projection systems like PECOTA to peg the NL East as a three-team race -- albeit a three-team race where the Nationals are expected to finish seven games up on both.

Whether or not that ends up being accurate, the Nationals are again the favorites for good reason: they have the best and deepest roster among NL East clubs. They also have the chance to feast upon the Miami Marlins, which is a nifty little advantage relative to other NL heavyweights as it relates to claiming home-field advantage throughout the postseason.

The other expiring deals

As with Harper, general manager Mike Rizzo will have his contract expire at season's end. Unlike with Harper, Rizzo has stated he's confident a new deal get done before then. It should: Rizzo is one of the better general managers in baseball.

The results speak for themselves. The Nationals haven't had a losing season since 2011 (when they went 80-81), and have made the postseason in four of the last six years. They've won 95 or more games four times during that stretch, and have four division crowns to show for it.

Postseason success has evaded this club time and again, but Rizzo has shown an aptitude for building rosters. He's made smart free-agent signings and trades, and has one of the deepest front offices in the game, with multiple past and future GM types on the payroll. The Nationals probably couldn't do better at GM -- Brian Cashman, Theo Epstein, and Andrew Friedman are entrenched in their positions for a reason -- but they could absolutely do worse. And they probably will, should they decide to walk away from Rizzo as they did with Dusty Baker.

Joining Harper and Rizzo in expiring contract limbo are Daniel Murphy, Gio Gonzalez, Matt Wieters, and Ryan Madson, among other veteran types. Not quite a Kansas City Royals-like exodus, but you can see why this year is so important for the Nationals. If they don't strike an extension here or there, they could stand to lose two players who may receive MVP votes, as well as a quality mid-rotation starter and reliable setup man.

Bryce Harper might not be the only National moving on after the season. USATSI

Moves to come

For the most part, the Nationals are loaded. There are two positions to keep an eye on as the season progresses, since those two figure to be the ones Rizzo addresses by the deadline.

The first is behind the plate. Wieters failed to bounce back last season, and at this point there's no reason to settle for Miguel Montero as the most-days starter. The Nationals have been tied to Marlins backstop J.T. Realmuto all winter long, suggesting he's the favorite to eventually take over behind the dish. But who knows, maybe the Nats end up finding their solution elsewhere -- perhaps a reunion with Wilson Ramos could be in order? Or maybe the Nationals would remain in the division and go after Tyler Flowers? Whatever the case, a Wieters renaissance is probably the only thing keeping Rizzo from adding a new backstop.

In addition to needing another catcher, the Nationals could be in the market for a fifth starter. A.J. Cole used to be a top prospect, but has scuffled in his big-league looks (career 4.52 ERA, 4.81 FIP) to the point where Edwin Jackson is considered legitimate competition. Woof. Barring injury, the Nationals' fifth starter is basically guaranteed to never see a postseason start. As such, it's at least possible the Nationals exhaust their internal options before going outside the organization. If that happens, expect to see Erick Fedde and Austin Voth get cracks.

The injury bug

The thing about the Nationals is they always seem to have an injury or six pop up as they're heading into the postseason. Everyone remembers Stephen Strasburg's issues last NLDS, just as sure as they remember Adam Eaton tearing his knee in the early going, and Ramos shredding his before the 2016 postseason. There are times where this team seems cursed.

It gets said about every team -- if this group can stay healthy … -- but it applies doubly to the Nationals: if this group can stay healthy, they have a real shot at representing the NL in the World Series. They have a star-studded lineup and rotation, they have enough breadth and depth in their bullpen, and they have the ability to add more -- be it internally, with the likes of Victor Robles -- or externally. The only thing the Nats need to get over the hump is a little luck.