This was supposed to be the year the Baltimore Orioles emerged as the American League's dominant force and became a World Series contender, if not the favorite. Instead, the O's went from 101 wins last season to 91 wins this season, and went two-and-out in the Wild Card Series. They were unceremoniously swept by the Kansas City Royals at home this week.
Of course, the Orioles are an excellent team, one with an enviable base of young talent and a new ownership group, led by David Rubenstein, that at least opens up the possibility of increased spending. The previous owner, the Angelos family, had little interest in investing in the on-field product. The O's won 101 games in 2023 yet opened 2024 with baseball's fifth-lowest payroll.
No doubt, Baltimore was hit hard by injuries. Kyle Bradish, last year's fourth-place finisher in the Cy Young voting, hurt his elbow in January and unsuccessfully tried to avoid Tommy John surgery. He went under the knife in June and will miss much of 2025. Grayson Rodriguez suffered what proved to be a season-ending lat strain on July 31. It's his second significant lat strain in three years.
Furthermore, John Means had continued elbow trouble following his April 2022 Tommy John surgery and needed a second Tommy John this June. Bradish, Rodriguez, and Means entered 2024 as Baltimore's Nos. 2-4 starters and they combined for 32 starts -- 20 by Rodriguez and none after July 31. Also, Adley Rutschman. He took a foul tip to the right hand on June 27 ...
... and simply was not the same afterward. Rutschman took a .297/.350/.470 batting line into that game, then hit .194/.281/.295 the rest of the year. Tests and X-rays came back negative and Rutschman insisted he was healthy, but the foul tip and sudden decline in production seems to be more than a coincidence. Regardless, what's done is done, and the Orioles are done for 2024.
The focus now shifts to 2025 and how this team that is 0-5 the last two postseasons (and 0-10 in their last 10 playoff games dating back to 2014) can get over the hump and contend for a World Series. An ownership that is more willing to spend will help, especially with Rutschman eligible for arbitration for the first time and rental ace Corbin Burnes about to enter free agency.
More than anything though, it seems the front office and GM Mike Elias need a philosophy shift away from building for the future and toward winning right now. There are times the O's seem more focused on having the best farm system than the best major league team. Maybe that's an unfair statement, but that's what it looks like at times. A lack of urgency is the primary optic.
The Burnes trade was a no-brainer and very successful. The Zach Eflin trade at the deadline worked out well too even though he missed some time with a shoulder issue. The rest of the O's deadline was too cute by half though. Trevor Rogers is talented but a project. He was brought in to stabilize the back of the rotation and did no such thing, instead winding up in Triple-A.
Efforts to reinforce the bullpen were, frankly, disastrous. The Orioles signed only one major-league free agent last offseason: Craig Kimbrel. He had a nice run to start the year, but, for the sixth straight season, Kimbrel was demoted out of high leverage work by the middle of the summer. Baltimore designated him for assignment in September. That was their lone free-agent signing.
At the deadline, the too cute by half approach led the O's to the most combustible parts of the Philadelphia Phillies bullpen -- Seranthony Domínguez and Gregory Soto -- and those moves appeared to have as much to do with team control in 2025 than what the pitchers could do in 2024. Domínguez was fine after the trade, but that's all. Fine. Soto pitched poorly and fell down the trust depth chart.
In a vacuum, you could argue that the Domínguez, Kimbrel, Rogers and Soto moves made sense at the time, but, at best, none of them moved the needle significantly, and in reality all but Domínguez actively made the Orioles worse. Burnes was great, so too was Eflin. The rest of the team's pitching decisions left a lot of be desired. Too much focus on the future, not enough on now.
It only gets harder to win the World Series with each passing year. Players get older and more expensive, they unexpectedly decline, a promising future gets derailed. We all thought the Chicago Cubs were a budding dynasty after 2016, right? Or at least well-positioned to contend for more titles. Instead, they slipped quickly and failed to make the postseason as soon as 2019.
I'm not sure any team in baseball is set up for long-term contention better than the O's. Their position-player core is so good. Now it's on Elias & Co. to get those hitters the pitching help they need, which will require better decision-making and also more decisiveness. They don't want today's window to close because the front office is stuck worrying about tomorrow.
