If you'd been told, back when the current round of free agency began a week after the World Series ended, that Justin Upton and Yoenis Cespedes would still be on the market in mid-January, then you probably would've ... Well, I suppose not much would really change for you in the existential sense, but you'd probably be a bit surprised. Yes, that's it: It's surprising that Upton and Cespedes are still unemployed at this late hour.
Each, of course, provides plenty of right-handed power. In Upton's case, he's also a skilled base-runner, and at 28 he's young as free agents go. Cespedes, meantime, has a plus glove, so long as he's playing an outfield corner, and since he was traded mid-season he doesn't cost the team that signs him a compensatory/punitive draft pick. We're talking about premium free agents here. For whatever reasons -- meaning, mostly, that the market hasn't risen to meet the player's expecations -- Upton and Cespedes, despite having needle-moving potential in the near-term, are still out there.
All of that gives rise to the matter of which contender or potential contender is most in need of a corner outfield upgrade in 2016 and beyond (no, Cespedes is not a center fielder, which is why I don't include the incumbent Mets among the teams who need him). There's a great deal of structural parity in baseball right now (e.g., booming local television revenues, 10-team playoff field), so in that sense the bar for contention has never been lower. So keep that in mind as we name-check some good fits for Upton or Cespedes ...
ANGELS
Sure, maybe the Angels have a budget (they're close to the luxury tax threshhold for 2016), but the competitive reality is that they have on their roster the most valuable commodity in all of baseball in Mike Trout. There's no finer starting point than Trout, but he's not going to be an 8-, 9-, 10-win player until the end of days. That's why it's incument upon owner Arte Moreno and GM Billy Eppler to surround Trout with a playoff-grade supporting cast. That hasn't happened.
Presently, the Angels are slated to open the season with the likes of Daniel Nava, Todd Cunningham, and C.J. Cron getting significant playing time among the outfield corners, first base, and DH. Obviously, that's a sub-optimal state of affairs, especially for a team that in 2015 ranked 14th in the AL in OPS and 12th in runs scored. Signing Upton or Cespedes could provide the Angels with a difference-making upgrade. That's especially the case in what figures to be a very compressed AL West race this upcoming season.
WHITE SOX
This winter, GM Rick Hahn, in trading for Brett Lawrie and Todd Frazier, has directly addressed two of the most glaring weaknesses on his roster -- second base and third base. Based on that alone, the White Sox should enjoy a step forward in 2016. However, they still have a hole at short, and they're poised to open the season with the outfield corners being manned by Melky Cabrera, who showed signs of deep decline last year, and Avisail Garcia, who's yet to live up to expectations at the highest level. Needless to say, one of these two free agents would provide an improvement over the status quo (especially considering what a good environment U.S. Cellular Field is for power hitters).
On the other hand, maybe the White Sox would rather bank on positive regression from Cabrera (a reasonable possibility), skills-growth from Garcia (also reasonable), and instead focus their resources on finding a shortstop. Ideally, though, they'd fill both holes.
CARDINALS
The Cardinals, in terms of underlying indicators, aren't working from a 100-win baseline moving forward, and they've already lost Jason Heyward and John Lackey to the rival Cubs. They're still a good team, but their unspectacular offense could use a free agent jolt. Matt Holliday turns 35 this month and is coming off an injury-compromised 2015. Randal Grichuk hasn't proved he's able to stay healthy over the course of a full major-league season. Stephen Piscotty's power performance may not be sustainable. Signing, say, Upton would allow the Cardinals to platoon Piscotty with Matt Adams at first base or, in a less likely turn of events, shift Holliday to first in an effort to ease the strain on his legs. Mostly, though, signing one half of this available duo would add power to an offense than in 2015 ranked 11th in the NL in home runs.
ORIOLES
I'm not bullish on the O's as certifiable contenders in 2016. They're coming off a .500 season, and they've already lost Wei-Yin Chen and Gerardo Parra to free agency. As well, Chris Davis may wind up elsewhere and take all that left-handed power with him. That said, the Orioles under Buck Showalter have made a habit of defying expectations, so they're not to be wholly dismissed. To the end of actually contending, Baltimore would do well to add an impact corner bat. Right now, they'll try to sort out left-right-DH with some mix of Nolan Reimold, Jimmy Paredes, L.J. Hoes, and Hyun-soo Kim. That's not ideal (and that's to say nothing of the prospect of every-day duty for Mark Trumbo at first base). Again, I don't think that signing Upton or Cespedes makes the O's contenders, but right now they're faced with basement-level production from a number of bat-first positions.
TIGERS
The Tigers are more than fine in right with J.D. Martinez, but right now Tyler Collins figures to be their primary left fielder. The Marcel projection system tabs Collins in 2016 for a line of .264/.319/.425, while the average left fielder last season batted .256/.321/.416. As such, it's reasonable to expect average-ish production from Collins, at least by positional standards. Average has value, of course, so the Tigers aren't as acutely desperate as, say, the Angels. However, there's no doubt that Cespedes or Upton would provide them with more certainty and, very likely, more overall value. Given the low buy-in for contention right now, every upgrade matters.
As noted, Upton or Cespedes would be a good fit for any of these teams, and signing one or the other would be a measurable step toward playoff contention. However, once you consider the degree of need and realistic designs on the playoffs, it's the Angels who should be working the hardest to land one of these sluggers.
