The two-time defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers host the Milwaukee Brewers for Game 3 of the NLCS Wednesday evening in Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers are trailing the Brewers, 2-0, in the best-of-seven series, meaning the Dodgers need to win four of their next five games or their season is over. The champs are on the ropes, no doubt, as this is an uphill battle. In MLB playoff history, teams falling behind 2-0 are 16-79 in their series.
Given all we've heard so often all season that the Dodgers winning the World Series is so inevitable, it might seem weird to see them with such steep odds. And though I'm sticking with my prediction from the last six weeks (or more) that the Brewers will win the World Series, it would be beyond foolish to count the Dodgers out.
First off, they are going home -- and that's always good. The Brewers were seven games worse on the road in the regular season and went 1-1 in San Diego last round compared to their 4-0 playoff record in American Family Field. Plus, the Dodgers haven't been home since Oct. 4. It'll feel nice to have that familiarity.
Here are four more reasons the Dodgers can come back and win the NLCS.
1. Shohei Ohtani can't be worse
First things first, it's clear that Ohtani is hurt. He's been dealing with knee and biceps injuries since July and has struggled mightily at the plate since the middle of August. He's now 3 for 20 with seven strikeouts and zero extra-base hits in the playoffs and the Dodgers have thought about benching him -- but he will start as usual in Game 3.
He also continues to be insistent that he isn't hurt that badly and can soon figure things out at the plate. Who are we to doubt Shohei Freaking Ohtani?
If things do all-of-a-sudden click at the plate for the four-time MVP, it changes everything for this Dodgers lineup. Last postseason alone, he had three doubles, a triple, eight home runs, 14 RBI and 13 runs in 17 games with a 1.096 OPS. That's the type of stuff that elevates everyone else in a lineup. He had a three-homer game against the Brewers in Game 4 of the NLCS.
2. Home run power
In the playoffs, you're facing better competition, which usually means better pitching and defense and, as such, it becomes much more difficult to string together hits. This means there is increased importance on either small ball -- which is playing for one run a lot of the time -- or home runs. Obviously, though the Brewers gave the Dodgers some runs in the first two games, the pitching-and-defense thing applies to them. They are exceptional at run prevention.
The Dodgers can hit the ball out of the ballpark, though. They were tied for seventh with 204 home runs in the regular season and that's with Ohtani having been compromised for months, not to mention injury affecting Will Smith and a mostly lost season from Kyle Tucker. This is to say that the Dodgers are probably more powerful than their regular-season line indicates.
In their two home games in the playoffs, the Dodgers have five home runs.
3. The killer starting rotation
So many teams losing two games started by Tarik Skubal and Yoshinobu Yamamoto would be in desperation mode. The Dodgers return home and start two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell in Game 3. Last time Snell saw the Brewers in October, he was shutting them out for eight innings in NLCS Game 1 last year, striking out 10 and allowing just one hit. Now, he gave up five runs both times he pitched in the World Series and walked five in his previous outing this postseason, so he's not a sure thing, but he does have the ability to go into Ace Mode.
So does Tyler Glasnow, the Dodgers' Game 4 starter. Glasnow only gave up one run in 5 ⅔ innings against the Brewers in the NLCS last year. He has a 1.73 ERA in the playoffs since joining the Dodgers.
And then there's Skubal for Game 5 and Yamamoto for Game 6, should the Dodgers be able to force those games.
The Brewers should be favored to win the series right now, rather heavily, but if things change -- the second the Dodgers start winning, those odds tilt in their favor with this rotation.
4. They've been there and done that
Take note again of how the Brewers are worse on the road. Let's say the Dodgers do win three straight in Dodger Stadium before sending this thing back to Milwaukee with a 3-2 NLCS lead.
Now, all of a sudden, all the pressure is on the Brewers. The Dodgers are the two-time defending champs and many of their players have plenty of other experience with deep playoff runs. The Brewers, meanwhile, were swept by the Dodgers in the NLCS last season and the franchise has never won a World Series nor an NL pennant.
If this returns to Milwaukee with a 3-2 Dodgers lead, the nervous energy will be through the roof, even if it's open for Game 6. Even if the Brewers go home with a 3-2 lead, I believe the Dodgers will feel confident they are taking this series.
The Brewers have shown incredible resilience in the first two games of the series, punching back each time the Dodgers land one of their own. They'll need to keep that up in order to combat the Dodgers' championship mentality in order to close things out.
