Why Mets' Clay Holmes gamble may pay off: Three reasons to think ex-closer could make it as a starter

The New York Mets have reportedly agreed to a three-year pact worth $38 million with veteran right-hander Clay Holmes. The 31-year-old Holmes had spent the previous three-plus seasons with the crosstown Yankees, with whom he compiled a 2.69 ERA (155 ERA+) and a 3.45 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 220 appearances.

Initial reports indicate that Holmes, who CBS Sports ranked as the No. 23 free agent entering the winter, will be deployed by the Mets as a starter -- a role he hasn't occupied since initially breaking into the majors during the 2018 season. 

You might wonder just what the Mets see in Holmes to convert him back to starting, as well as why they're willing to commit to an experiment so early in a winter that could see them lose each of their three leading innings compilers from last season.

Below, we've highlighted three reasons why the Mets' gamble with Holmes makes sense.

1. Good innate traits

Let's begin with a thought experiment. What, exactly, tends to separate starting pitchers from relievers? There are few obvious differences in skill set. Starters often have more quality pitches, allowing them to turn over a lineup more than once and often more than twice; they tend to have better control; and they have better durability -- in terms of being able to work deeper into games and being able to avoid the shelf. 

How does Holmes fare in those categories? Well, in our estimation.

Holmes relies heavily on three pitches: a mid-to-upper 90s sinker, an upper-80s slider, and a low-80s sweeper. His arsenal is more horizontally based than most pitchers nowadays who tend to rely more on verticality; the sinker and the sweeper veer in opposite directions, with the slider serving as something of a bridge offering between the two extremes. Each of the three grades well according to the pitch quality models: Baseball Prospectus' StuffPro metric, which incorporates variables like velocity and movement, has them each checking in as above-average pitches.

Of course, a lot of starting pitchers have a changeup as part of their arsenals. Holmes notably does not. It hasn't prevented him from being effective against left-handed batters. He's held them to a .705 OPS for his career, with each of the last three seasons checking in below that mark. 

Holmes' stuff plays up because he also has above-average control. He's thrown at least 64% of his pitches for strikes three years in a row, and he's reliably walked around three batters or fewer per nine innings throughout his big-league career. 

As for the durability aspect, Holmes hasn't required a stint on the injured list since 2022, and that was because of back spasms. His last IL trip precipitated by arm trouble came back in 2020 (though he did undergo Tommy John surgery in 2014).

To summarize: Holmes is a pitcher with three good offerings; above-average control; and no recent history of arm trouble. If you had no further knowledge of how he had been used, you might assume that he was already starting games. 

2. Recent precedent

Bear in mind, the Mets aren't going out on a limb by betting on a reliever making an effective transition to the rotation. Last season saw a few pitchers make that exact move -- in the process providing some precedent for the Mets to take comfort in. 

Jordan Hicks with the San Francisco Giants and Reynaldo López with the Atlanta Braves both pulled off the trick. Although neither appeared to be a slam-dunk conversion, both turned in above-average seasons. López even made the All-Star Game and received downballot Cy Young Award consideration for his efforts. 

The 2024 campaign also saw continued success for Seth Lugo, Michael King, Ronel Blanco, and Bowden Francis, among others -- all pitchers once used primarily out of the bullpen. Clearly teams looking for a starter can do worse than including relievers in their searches. There are various reasons for that development, including reduced workload expectations and philosophical shifts in pitching strategy. 

Whatever the exact cause, the Mets have reason to be confident it's a trend they can tap into with Holmes.. 

3. Good risk-reward proposition

The beauty of the Holmes deal is that it contains less risk than it appears at face value. If he fails to make the transition back to starting in an acceptable way, he can simply return to the bullpen and easily salvage both his season and his contract.

Indeed, Holmes' average annual value ($12.67 million) puts him in line with those received over the last year by relievers like Craig Kimbrel, David Robertson, and Robert Stephenson. In other words, the Mets are paying Holmes for what he has been in recent years -- a high-leverage reliever -- and not what they hope he can become over the next three seasons -- a quality starter.

So, while this deal will likely be described as high-risk given the uncertainty that comes with asking a player to take on a new role, it also appears to be high-reward. After all, have you seen the starting pitching market this winter?

Add all of the above together, and you can see why the Mets are willing to entertain Holmes as a starting pitcher, even if it feels like an outlandish development.