The Mariners have already improved upon last season by seven wins and are likely to build on that here during the final week. They are going to end up in the mid-to-high 80s in wins. For most teams, this would be cause for celebration and future optimism. Instead, the organization is in a bit of a crossroads situation.
We've already discussed the Mariners having the longest playoff drought in baseball. It goes back to 2001. That season, the Mariners won 116 games and failed to make the World Series. It was their fourth playoff berth in a seven-season span. Three times they made the ALCS, but failed to win more than two games in any of those series.
As it would turn out, that was -- to this point -- the golden era of Mariners baseball. Prior to that, they had zero playoff appearances and they haven't had one since.
Knowing that, it brings a bit more urgency to the situation than, say, the Phillies missing the playoffs this season. Also differing here with the Mariners from lots of other teams that missed the postseason is that there aren't many reasons for optimism with the current group.
A sampling of some of the core players and their situation:
- Robinson Cano is still a good-to-great hitter, but he served a PED suspension this season and is heading toward his age-36 season in 2019. His 10-year, $240 million contract runs through 2023, meaning he's likely not tradeable absent the Mariners eating a lot of money.
- Nelson Cruz is also still a good-to-great hitter, but he's hitting free agency after this season and heads toward his age-38 season.
- Kyle Seager is headed for his age-31 season. His OPS+ has gone from 133 to 109 to 86 in the last three years, respectively. His seven-year, $100 million deal runs through 2021. Given what happened to Mike Moustakas in free agency last year and the likelihood that Moustakas joins Josh Donaldson in free agency this coming offseason, there will be zero trade market for Seager.
- Dee Gordon is supposed to be a table-setter and has a .291 on-base percentage. He's going to be 31 years old next season.
- There's a $12 million option on Denard Span, but he's just not that good a player and he'll be 35 next year.
- This is the first time in Wade LeBlanc's career that he's been a full-time and productive starting pitcher. He'll be 34 next year.
- Felix Hernandez is cooked. Sad, but true.
- Mike Leake is just a league-average starter and will be 31 next year.
Here are the core pieces (with next year's age in parentheses) that have good to great value:
- Mitch Haniger (28)
- Jean Segura (29)
- James Paxton (30)
- Edwin Diaz (25)
It's possible to think starter Marco Gonzales and some other relievers have value, too, such as James Pazos.
Still, this isn't a pretty picture. It's most certainly not the look of a team that missed the playoffs but has a bright future like many believe the Rays do. This is an old roster. What about a youth movement? Well, there's bad news there.
Heading into this season, the Mariners had either one of the worst or the single-worst farm system in all of baseball, according to multiple outlets. They didn't deal anyone to replenish it -- in fact, they traded away some guys -- this season while top prospect Kyle Lewis has hit .244/.306/.405 between High-A and Double-A this season.
Basically, we're looking at an old roster that is likely to be much worse next season and not that much in the pipeline coming to help. Without drastic changes, the payroll is already looking like it's in the $180-million range for as far out as 2020 and it's just a touch over $180 million this season. Simply, it doesn't look like they'll be going on a spending spree any time soon.
There aren't any easy answers here. The smartest option seems like it would be to just tear it down and trade all the veterans. The problem there is two-fold. First off, telling this tortured fan base it has to sit through four years of awful baseball on the heels of winning something like 87 games is bad business. Secondly, there really isn't that much to sell that would stock up the farm system.
Still, I think general manager Jerry Dipoto should bite the bullet this coming offseason and trade Haniger, Segura, Paxton, Diaz, Gonzales and Pazos and only concentrate on getting back as many prospects and as much international pool slot money as he can. It wouldn't hurt to see if they could get anything back for the likes of Mike Zunino, Ryon Healy, Guillermo Heredia, etc., either.
Veterans like Cano, Seager and Hernandez would then just need to play out the string while the club attempts to stock the farm as much as it can these next few seasons, with eyes on hopefully building a strong foundation for the early 2020s. Then, once those contracts are all off the books, the Mariners could be a player in free agency to build around their emerging prospects.
Yes, it'll be a long and slow rebuild. Dealing with the Astros and A's in the AL West now, there just doesn't seem like a better option for the Mariners.