Reggie Miller is one of the greatest shooters in the history of the NBA. He is a member of the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame as well as the prestigious NBA 75th Anniversary Team.
But a skilled oddsmaker he is not.
During Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals between the Spurs and Thunder, Miller told the television audience, "Whomever wins this series, I've seen enough from the Knicks. The Knicks are going to be favored in the Finals to win it all. I'm just telling you right now."
The hot take drew an immediate reaction from broadcast partner Jamal Crawford. "Hey, let me look at your cup," he joked, suggesting Miller had been impaired from an adult beverage.
And to no one's surprise, Miller was wrong. For the 2026 NBA Finals, which begin on Wednesday in San Antonio, the Spurs are -190 favorites at FanDuel to win the NBA title. The Knicks are +160 underdogs to lift the Larry O'Brien Trophy.
In the NBA Finals MVP futures betting market, 7-foot-4 San Antonio megastar Victor Wembanyama is the -175 favorite to win the award, with New York's pint-sized lane prober Jalen Brunson as the +210 second choice.
But SportsLine expert Larry Hartstein, who is 100-69 in his last 169 NBA picks for a +1751 profit for $100 bettors, sees better value in other NBA Finals markets. Here are his three best NBA betting plays for the upcoming seven-game series, including two that would pay plus-money.
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Over 5.5 Games (-170) and Spurs win series 4-3 (+380)
Hartstein is expecting an extended series, much like we've seen this decade. Five of the last seven Finals have gone at least six games.
In addition, both teams were elite this season at home. San Antonio went 32-8 at home (the second-best home record in the league), while New York was 30-10 at Madison Square Garden (fourth). Each team won on its home court against the other this season, while the Knicks beat the Spurs in Las Vegas in the NBA Cup Final. If the home team just holds serve to begin the series, then six or seven games are more than reasonable.
In the end, Hartstein likes San Antonio to win in seven.
"Yes, the Eastern Conference is weaker, but the Knicks are formidable," he says. "They've won 11 straight playoff games by nearly 24 points per game. They have the most clutch player in the series, Brunson, and they've got a secondary offensive creator in Karl-Anthony Towns who can take some pressure off of Brunson. That's a luxury the Thunder didn't have due to injuries. Ultimately, I like the Spurs to pull this out in seven, thanks to Wembanyama, superior depth and homecourt advantage."
Julian Champagnie to lead series in 3-pointers (+290)
Hartstein is eyeing the hot hand in this player prop. After starting the Western Conference Finals 6-of-31 (19.4%) from beyond the 3-point arc, Champagnie went 12-of-24 (50.0%) over the last three games of the series to help the Spurs knock off the reigning champion Thunder.
Hartstein prefers Champagnie over Devin Vassell, who's also +290. While both averaged a little more than six 3-point attempts per game in the regular season, Champagnie is almost strictly a spot-up shooter while Vassell has more versatility and is likely to draw a tougher defender.
"In the regular season, he erupted for a franchise-record 11 3-pointers in a 134-132 home win over the Knicks," Hartstein says. "Many believe the Knicks will put Brunson on Champagnie. If so, Champagnie should be able to exploit one of New York's weakest defenders."
