The coming-of-age San Antonio Spurs versus the historically hot New York Knicks. The intimidating length of the sports world's newest megastar, the 7-foot-4 Victor Wembanyama, against the dizzying mid-range mastery of the 6-foot-2 Jalen Brunson. A franchise built to win multiple NBA titles over the next decade versus one looking to win now.
The 2026 NBA Finals between the Spurs and Knicks is shaping up to be a riveting clash when the best-of-seven series tips off on Wednesday at the Frost Bank Center. San Antonio, which is loaded with young players and future assets, can begin what could be a long reign atop the NBA. Meanwhile, New York is famously trying to end a 52-season drought since the franchise's last NBA title in 1973.
The Spurs are -198 favorites at FanDuel to lift the Larry O'Brien Trophy while the Knicks are +166 underdogs. Accordingly, Wembanyama is a -180 favorite to win Finals MVP, with Brunson the +210 second choice.
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But the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and enters the 2026 NBA Finals on a sizzling 26-10 roll (72%) on top-rated NBA spread betting picks this season, is not siding with the favorites in the finals. Instead, the model is riding with the team it has loved all postseason.
Knicks +172 to win NBA Finals
- NBA finals implied odds: 35.8%; Model odds: 45.2%
Before the playoffs, the SportsLine Projection Model saw value in New York winning the NBA title at +2500. Before the Eastern Conference semifinals, the model again was high on the Knicks lifting the trophy at +900. And before the Eastern Conference finals, the model was all-in on Brunson and friends to get a parade through the Canyon of Heroes at +550.
Now that New York is in the Finals, the model is sticking with the Knicks. And why not? They're on an all-time heater. They enter the series having won 11 straight games and are one of just five teams in league history to win 11 in a row in a single postseason. Moreover, their +262 point differential over those 11 games is the largest point differential over any 11-game span by any team in NBA history.
The model gives New York a 45.2% chance of beating San Antonio, which is greater than the implied odds of 35.8%.
There is one caveat, however. The 45.2% number is dependent on Knicks big man Mitchell Robinson, who is expected to play in Game 1 with a cast on his right hand to protect a broken pinkie finger, being at least 70% healthy and able to play at least 15 minutes per game. If he cannot play at all, the model gives New York just a 36.1% chance to beat the Spurs, which is essentially a wash with the current implied odds.
Knicks +1200 to win series in five games
- Implied odds: 7.7%; Model odds: 10.5%
As far as the exact result of the series, the model says the most likely outcome is Spurs in seven games, which occurs in 18.3% of simulations. The second most likely in Knicks in six, which occurs 16.7% of the time. However, neither San Antonio in seven (+310) nor New York in six (+500) offers value at those prices.
| Winner | Games | Price | Implied odds | Model odds | Value |
| Knicks | 5 | +1200 | 7.7% | 10.5% | 2.8% |
| Knicks | 4 | +2000 | 4.8% | 5.6% | 0.8% |
| Knicks | 6 | +500 | 16.7% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Knicks | 7 | +700 | 12.5% | 12.4% | -0.1% |
| Spurs | 6 | +500 | 16.7% | 14.1% | -2.6% |
| Spurs | 5 | +380 | 20.8% | 15.7% | -5.1% |
| Spurs | 4 | +700 | 12.5% | 6.7% | -5.8% |
| Spurs | 7 | +310 | 24.4% | 18.3% | -6.1% |
The only prop play on the series that the model sees value in is Knicks in five (+1200). The model gives that result a 10.5% chance, which is greater than the implied odds of 7.7%.
