So Josh Smith is a free agent on December 22nd, and that's just not something any of us were expecting. The Pistons bailed on the Smoove experiment Monday, waiving the veteran forward and ditching all the money ($26 million) owed to him just to get him off their roster. It's a stunning development, not only for the amount of money Tom Gores had to spend on what was basically a big "whoops," but because it shows the career arc of a player that had the skill-set and potential to be a top-10 guy five years ago, and how it's hit the toilet.
But here's the reality. Josh Smith is 6-9, 225 lbs. He's 29 years of age, and can play small or power forward. He's capable of being a beast defensively, a gifted passer, an excellent post scorer, and has the worst on-court basketball habits you can possibly imagine. He just doesn't make sound decisions, is supremely high usage, and has never committed himself to what teams need him to do.
Come and get him!
But the market for Smith is already active. USA Today, ESPN, and Yahoo Sports all report that the Rockets, Kings, Heat, and Mavericks are at the top of the early list of suitors to acquire Smith's services. Let's take a look at his options.
HOUSTON ROCKETS: FAMILIAR COMPANY AND A CURIOIUS FIT
The Rockets reportedly believe they are the front-runners for Smith, based on their ability to offer the bi-annual exception for one or two years, for $2.077 million per season. The Rockets have the most to offer Smith. In Houston, he plays with his old friend Dwight Howard, who he played with during high school, contends for a title, he gets the most money of any team interested, and he gets a starting spot at power forward.
The other teams would either need him to come off the bench (Dallas), play for a non-contender (Kings), or make less money (Mavericks and Heat). Houston is reportedly hot to trot for him, but it's a little bit of a curious fit.
Houston would obviously play him at the power forward spot next to Trevor Ariza (3) and Dwight Howard (5). They've gotten good production at the four from Donatas Motiejunas and Tarik Black, but with Terrence Jones out indefinitely with a scary nerve injury, they would welcome a veteran defender at four. Smith can guard 3's exceptionally well and is a great post defender. So what's the problem?
Well, for one, the Rockets have Motiejunas, Jones, Black, and Joey Dorsey on roster. You can trim some of that easily, no problem. But Motiejunas has played so well, do you just move him to the five and take away his ability to stretch the floor, one of his best assets? Do you swing a trade? This has been mentioned by Rockets fans, that Houston will look to trade those power forwards and some combination of picks for Goran Dragic to make a home-run move.
But those are conceptual, and the reality could be a logjam. Beyond that, this still doesn't address the elephant in the room. What does Houston preach? No mid-range jumpers and lots of attacks at the rim and 3-point shooting.
Let's go take a look at Josh Smith's shot charts, shall we?
First off, here's his shot distribution. This isn't how he shoots, just where from:
28 percent of his shots come from the mid-range. Less than 10 percent of his shots from three. The over-50-percent from the paint would fit, but you have to either get rid of everything outside of the paint, or get him to shoot better than his... wait for it... 24.3 PERCENT FROM 3-POINT RANGE. The Rockets can do that, in wide-open systems of comfortable, confident shooters, average shooters turn into good ones. But that's an awfully big risk with a guy whose fans literally boo when he rises to take a jumper. Here's a look at his heat map, via NBA Savant, and I hesitate to use the term "heat" here.
It's hard to see against the background, but all that dark blue around the edges? That's bad.
But look, if they can convince Smith to play as a true offensive four, if he doesn't take up a huge usage amount, if he does work in the pick and roll with James Harden, he could fit. Smith has been a bad defender in Detroit, but he was a good one in Atlanta. This fit isn't terrible... it's just weird.
DALLAS MAVERICKS: WHY
It's perplexing that the Mavericks have elected to join the Smoove race. They have Chandler Parsons on a max deal at the 3, who is a much better offensive small forward. They have Dirk Nowitzki at the four, who you may have heard is pretty good. They need a backup four, and a backup five. So you want to add Josh Smith as a bench component? A high-usage guy with Monta Ellis and Dirk Nowitzki usually on the floor?
Smith and Rondo go way, way back, but the fit here just makes zero sense. They have very little money to offer him, and adding him would bury one of their best defensive players in Al-Farouq Aminu. He's not big enough to play backup five behind Tyson Chandler, their biggest need. This screams of "not wanting to let Houston one-up them," but in the Mavericks' case, it's like keeping a nuke with unstable plutonium from the other guys. It's just as likely to go off in your hands.
MIAMI HEAT: THE REASONABLE OPTION
This probably has the best fit. The Heat like to play smallball lineups with Chris Bosh (who's injured right now anyway), and Smith can play at the four. He'll primarily get short-range jumpers and post attacks in their system, which works to his advantage. They don't play four-out much, and with Wade and Bosh, there's an established hierarchy. He helps them as a veteran backup three behind Luol Deng (although fans will lament Shawne Williams and James Ennis getting less time).
Pat Riley is notorious for correcting careers like this, Erik Spoelstra can handle Smith's ego and keep him happy, and Smith will have a great chance of making the playoffs in an easier Eastern Conference. This makes a decent amount of sense, and might be the best fit for his particular talents.
THE SACRAMENTO KINGS: SURE WHY NOT
The Kings just fired their coach for not wanting to play a ball-movement, up-tempo offense, so of course they're interested in Josh Smith.
This, I feel pretty comfortable saying, would be a disaster. Yes, it would open the door for the Kings to trade Jason Thompson and Derrick Williams for positional and depth upgrades elsewhere. Yes, with the right attitude, Smith's defense would do great things next to DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Guy. Yes, it is an upgrade in star power relative to what the Kings currently have, a commodity they value at a high level. Name value strikes a chord with Kings ownership more than with other teams.
But you want Ty Corbin to coach a team with Josh Smith and Rudy Gay? Gay's played well, he really has, but you're just inviting trouble. There are not enough possessions to go around, and Corbin is not the guy to put that puzzle together, to make those ingredients into a meal, to build a house out of that dreck. That's a recipe for dysfunction, chaos, and failure.
So, no, I don't think that's a tremendous plot.
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS: WISE CHOICE
The Clippers have no extra money to offer Smith. They would have to make room on roster for him. He'd have to play small forward instead of power forward, which encourages his worst instincts. And he's not a shooter, so spacing becomes complicated.
Yet, this might be the best potential option. The Clippers' biggest weakness is at the three. Matt Barnes is having a great year, but routinely, teams that have bested the Clippers have funneled the ball to him, and watched as he couldn't make them pay. He shot 32 percent from three in the playoffs last year. He's a good defender, not a great one, and is only good for catch-and-shoot opportunites or a few open drives.
"But wait," you might ask, "Smith's a worse shooter than Barnes. How does that work?" The Clippers have enough offense; they were the best team in points per possession last season. They have J.J. Redick and Jamal Crawford. They need a player who gives them better defense and can create in more mismatch situations. Smith is that player. Throw in his ability to play back-up four minutes (replacing Glen Davis) and to create a super-athletic smallball lineup with Blake Griffin, and you have a lot of what the Clippers could use.
It frees up the Clippers to package Crawford and Barnes for other upgrades, it gives Doc Rivers a veteran he'll feel he can trust, and another athlete to run the break. For all of Smith's drawbacks, the Clippers' locker room may be the strongest to be able to handle it. Plus, we finally get to see what it would have been like if the Hawks had had Josh Smith and Chris Paul.
THE OTHERS
A few teams that I think would do well to take a look at Smoove:
The Spurs: They rehabilitate players like no other. Smith's basketball IQ is what Boris Diaw's conditioning was when he joined the Spurs. In a system of accountability that demands precision and understanding your role, Smith could thrive, like so many other players. Pop handled Stephen Jackson for as long as any coach outside of Nelly. He can handle Smoove.
The Thunder: I know it sounds crazy, but if Smith's willing to take a bench role, why not join OKC? He can play in big lineups at the three with KD and take the biggest wing defensive challenge, and at the four with Serge Ibaka in small ball lineups. He'd be a definite wing bench upgrade, which is what OKC needs.
The Pelicans: Literally anyone is an upgrade for them at small forward.
