When they Milwaukee Bucks traded, in essence, Jrue Holiday for Damian Lillard, they made a bet that the offensive upgrade of Lillard would outweigh the defensive loss of Holiday. It hasn't been that simple for an array of reasons, but fundamentally, Lillard just hasn't been great enough for the majority of his Milwaukee campaign to make that bet pay off.
For the most part, it's been a different story in Year 2, but that has been lost in the fact that the Bucks still haven't found any sort of consistent stride as a team.
Perhaps that's starting to change. Milwaukee has won 11 of its last 14, including a 114-109 victory over the Magic on Tuesday in the NBA Cup quarterfinals, and is now 13-11 after a miserable 2-8 start.
Lillard scored 11 of Milwaukee's final 13 points and finished with 28 and nine assists in the win Tuesday. That included a game-tying stepback 3-pointer with under a minute to play, and what proved to be the winning drive and finish with just over 30 seconds left.
Lillard has to be the Bucks' guy in late-game situations
These are the types of clutch sequences and shots that were seemingly routine for Lillard in Portland, but he hasn't been able to recapture his late-game magic on a consistent basic in Milwaukee. So far this year he's made just three of his 14 3-pointers in clutch situations. His 42.3 effective field-goal percentage on all clutch shots this season, via Inpredictable (which defines a clutch shot as having an elevated impact on a game's outcome), is a paltry number. Stephen Curry is at 70.3%, for the other end of the guard spectrum.
The Bucks need late-game Lillard for the simple fact that the best they can hope for in terms of contending with upper-echelon teams -- if there is actually even any hope of this -- is to play them close and win in the end. Giannis Antetokounmpo is in the middle of a monster season, but he has to dominate in the offensive cracks -- transition, mismatches, offensive boards, etc.
In terms of giving the ball to a player and relying on him to score on, or at least break down, a set defense, Lillard has to be the guy.
Khris Middleton was that guy when Milwaukee won its championship, and he's just getting back from injury. If he can find his groove as a third option whose importance elevates late in games and notably in the playoffs when half-court individual scoring becomes so vital, the Bucks might actually be able to flip the narrative on this Lillard trade, which has been an unmitigated bust so far if we're being honest.
The optimist would say the Lillard/Giannis/Middleton trio dominated its minutes last season (plus-16.3 per 100, per Cleaning the Glass) before Giannis and Lillard got hurt in the playoffs. But that's disingenuous to suggest the Bucks would have been a contending team last season were it not for some rotten luck. They wouldn't have been. And they haven't been this year, either, this nice little stretch of wins against mediocre opponents notwithstanding.
Wins are wins and there's no denying the panic around this Bucks team has quieted of late. But in terms of honestly projecting contention, the hard fact is just three of Milwaukee's 13 wins this season have come against winning teams. The Magic were one of those wins on Tuesday, and they were without their two best players and Jonathan Isaac.
So settle down on the "Bucks are back!" talk. Back where? They haven't been any good with since Lillard arrived in the first place.
Lillard still learning how to play with Giannis
Again, it's hard to say how good the Bucks can be long term when Lillard, over time, has struggled to find his game. He was in a clearer situation in Portland, where he never had to question whether he was shooting too much or from too far or anything else. Now he's trying to be the best player situationally as Giannis carries that torch the rest of the time. That's a dance he's still learning, but it's coming together.
Over his last eight games, Lillard is averaging better than 27 points and seven assists on 49/45/93 shooting splits. That 45% from 3 is the key. Throw out the first five games of the season, and Lillard is connecting on better than 40% of this 3s on over nine attempts per game.
With Giannis playing the way he is playing, Milwaukee can do something with that Lillard, particularly if Middleton hits his stride at some point.
But it has to be consistent. We saw plenty of stretches last season where Lillard got it going, but it never really stuck. He's definitely got it going right now. Let's see if it sticks this time around.