In a season and a half with Dwight Howard lacing up his sneakers alongside James Harden, the Houston Rockets have been an evolving team. They went from being an offensive juggernaut that chucked a seemingly countless 3-pointers and struggled defensively to a middle-of-the-road offensive team that chucks a lot of 3s and is one of the NBA's best defensive teams. The transformation made them look more ready for a postseason run, but still on a bit of shaky ground with an offense that doesn't look impressive anymore.
The news Howard's knee injury will keep him out for the next month also has them on shaky ground. The reason they've gone from the 12th-best defense (which was fine) to third-best defense is Howard's presence. When he's been healthy, he's looked a lot like the center who won three straight Defensive Player of the Year awards with the Orlando Magic. He's anchored a defense that switched out Chandler Parsons for Trevor Ariza and has received a much better effort from Harden.
The Rockets endured an 11-game stretch earlier when that same knee kept him out. They went 8-3 against a relatively easy schedule. Six of those 11 games were against playoff teams from both conferences. They won games against the Mavericks, Grizzlies, Bucks, and Suns while losing to the Clippers and Warriors. If he's out till the end of the month, he'll miss at least another 10 games if he's out for the entire month of February.
The schedule is much tougher this time around, although they'll get the All-Star break to get a breather for a week. The Rockets will face eight current playoff teams during this stretch with their only reprieve coming against the Wolves and Nets during the month of February. So how will they survive this stretch of basketball without falling too far from their 5-seed standing in the West?
Their roster is a bit different this time around than when they were dealing with Dwight's absence in November and December. The Rockets have added Corey Brewer and Josh Smith in this time, and Terrence Jones has returned from his nerve inflammation. This gives them more depth and versatility for this next stretch of basketball.
The way they survived last time was getting a solid 20 minutes a night from Tarik Black (now on the Lakers) and the emergence of Donatas Motiejunas. The third year Lithuanian big man was highly effective on both ends of the floor during that 11-game stretch. He averaged 14.3 points on 56.2 percent from the field and 7.1 rebounds in 31.3 minutes with Howard out. The Rockets kept their defensive rating under 100 points per 100 possessions, no matter if it was Motiejunas, Black, or Joey Dorsey as the big man on the floor.
During that stretch of games, the Rockets were still the seventh best defense in the NBA. When Terrence Jones has been on the court, the Rockets have kept their defensive intensity. They give up just 93.4 points per 100 with him on the floor. Put Josh Smith on the floor and the defense is still good, giving up 99.3 points per 100. And they've been good all season long with Motiejunas on the floor with a 98.6 defensive rating.
The key will be cobbling together those defensive performances without Howard, which they've done before but not against such fierce competition. The four-game stretch of a home game against the Blazers then two road games against the Suns and Clippers before the All-Star break and then a game in Dallas could make or break their playoff seeding. They're probably not in danger of falling out of the playoffs because they have a 7.5-game lead over the ninth place Pelicans.
Their record against .500 or better teams this year is just 10-12 while they've feasted against losing teams with a record of 23-3. They won't have that luxury in February though with their schedule. If Smith truly is a resurrected two-way talent and Motiejunas and Jones can be those brimming interior presences, the Rockets can ride Harden's offensive capabilities to being quite competitive.
Having Harden in those end-of-game situations puts you at ease a little bit, but this Rockets team was already struggling to defend in clutch situations (28th) with Howard on the floor. Without him on the floor, they'll need a total team effort and the role players stepping up to provide plenty of resistance to allow Harden to win them games.
They're not doomed by any means but this injury and absence couldn't have happened at a tougher time in their schedule.
