Steve Kerr does not believe in unbalanced basketball. He had Kevin Durant, perhaps the greatest one-on-one scorer in history, and only isolated situationally. He has Stephen Curry, probably the best pick-and-roll player ever, and the Warriors ran the least amount of pick-and-rolls in the league last season. There are a lot of intricacies to the style of offense Kerr prefers, a hybrid of his Bulls and Spurs playing days, a system blessed by the freelancing guidance of true basketball geniuses.
Everyone moves. Everyone passes. Everyone is involved.
Still, systems are only as good as the players running them. The presence of Durant and Curry together afforded Kerr the luxury of not overtaxing either one. Obviously circumstances have changed, and the question is: Will Kerr bend his pretty rooted basketball philosophies and ride Curry harder than he'd like in the interest of maximizing this particular team's potential?
In many ways, that word, potential, is at the heart of Kerr's quandary. Even if Curry goes nuclear this season, how good can this Warriors team actually be? A playoff team? A top-four seed? You wonder, if the Warriors, in their most honest, internal heart of hearts, don't see themselves as true title contenders, will Kerr stop short of pegging the Curry pedal all the way to the floor?
There are a lot of layers to this question. One way Kerr likes to save Curry from having to make all the plays himself is to run him off the ball, which is fine. Curry is arguably the best off-ball player in the league. The problem is, the Warriors lost three high-IQ passers in Andre Iguodala, Durant and Shaun Livingston -- all of whom were uniquely programmed to see the court through Curry's eyes, to anticipate the spots to which he was moving, which enabled them to get him the ball in that split second of time that exists between Curry breaking free and multiple defenders rushing to his space.
Outside of Draymond Green, this Warriors team lacks that unspoken chemistry between Curry and his would-be assisters. D'Angelo Russell is more likely to visualize his own move once he has the ball than he is to feel where Curry is headed ahead of time. It's not a knock on Russell, or Glenn Robinson III, or Jordan Poole, or any other player trying to adapt to playing with Curry. Most players see the court through their own eyes. Only the truly great individual playmakers, and collective teams comprised of a lot of guys who've played together for years, can be expected to consistently anticipate rather than react.
Oftentimes with Curry, by the time you see him breaking free it's too late. He is the most hassled off-ball runner in history. There are always multiple defenders waiting to undercut screens or switch off ball, anything to keep the quickest-trigger shooter in the league from getting an even halfway clean look. If the Warriors don't have anyone outside of Green who can be depended upon to get Curry the ball when and where he needs it, then it becomes a much bigger problem to have Curry give up the ball in the first place.
This is where the pick-and-roll would, seemingly, come into play. It would only make sense to give Curry the ball at the top and run pick-and-roll over and over, and let everything trickle down from there. This is what the Blazers do with Damian Lillard. Even though it's more often spaced-out isolation, this is what the Rockets do with James Harden. They put the ball in the hands of their best player and let them go to work.
Will Kerr ramp up Curry's pick-and-rolls? Will he be willing to play him 35 minutes a night, and even 40 minutes on a lot of nights, if that's what it takes to win? Because in looking at this team, that might be the only realistic chance the Warriors have of staying afloat long enough for Klay Thompson to get back for a potential playoff run. The Warriors' defense might seriously be atrocious. They will most likely have to win most of their games by scoring a ton of points. They cannot do that without Curry getting a Lillard/Harden-like opportunity to single-handedly control games via a virtually uncapped usage rate.
It makes you wonder about Kerr's recent statement to NBA Sports Bay Area that Thompson is "unlikely" to play this season. This is undoubtedly, at least in part, a PR move. This is the Warriors eliminating the expectation for Thompson's return so he isn't pressured to come back early, and then if he does come back, it's a pleasant surprise. The Warriors know they should've done Kevin Durant a similar favor with the wording of his potential return in last year's Finals. By continually saying he was day to day, and that he could be back any time, there is no doubt it led to people wondering why the heck Durant wasn't playing, which may have led to his very clear premature return.
Still, you wonder if the Warriors are internally fine with Klay missing the entire season because they quietly don't believe they have a team that can compete for a title anyway.
There are some who have suggested, after five straight Finals runs that required playing ultra-intense basketball into late June, a truncated season wouldn't be the worst thing in the world for these Warriors -- specifically for Curry and Draymond Green, who aren't getting any younger. Lose in the first round, or even miss the playoffs entirely, and get a bit of rest before both of them likely head off to play in next summer's Olympics.
If that were true, it would then make even more sense for the Warriors to play it relatively safe with Curry, with the focus being on returning everyone healthy for a more realistic title run next season. That's a dicey game to play, effectively cashing in seasons without putting your best foot forward. The "Curry and Green aren't getting any younger" thing goes both ways. Green might have two or three prime years left. Curry might have four or five at most. Can you really just give one of those away?
Of course, the Warriors would never tell you that's what they're doing, and in a lot of ways, they're not going to do that. They're going to try to win every night, obviously. Regardless of what they say through the PR microphone, they know there's a chance Thompson returns for the playoffs, and they know if they're in the playoffs with Curry, Green and Thompson, they have a shot.
But how hard will they fight for that shot? Will Kerr bend his inclusive principles? He was willing to do it for Durant, who has isolation privileges any time he wanted them. Curry has proven he can carry a team without another star. He did it when the Warriors won a title in 2015. He did it again in 2016 when he was named the only unanimous MVP in league history and the Warriors won 73 games.
Yes, Thompson was around for both of those seasons, but the Warriors don't need 73 wins. They need 50, maybe a few less. They just need to get into the playoffs, and then take their chances from there. If Kerr is willing to ride Curry, they should have a good shot of doing that.
