Even Giannis Antetokounmpo's return from injury can't save the Bucks now
Milwaukee is outside both the Play-In tournament and the top lottery odds as things stand today
MILWAUKEE -- The Milwaukee Bucks are an average basketball team (at best) and not even two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo can change that fact. Monday night's 108-81 loss to the shorthanded Boston Celtics in Antetokounmpo's long-awaited return from a calf injury was the latest evidence.
The Celtics beat the Philadelphia 76ers in a hard-fought game late on Sunday night and didn't arrive in Milwaukee until 3 a.m. Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Neemias Queta were all ruled out. Everything was set up for the Bucks to re-energize their campaign as they began a crucial five-game home stand. Instead, they trailed by as many as 31 on Monday night en route to their third consecutive loss, all by at least 20 points.
What should have been a celebration of Antetokounmpo's return to the court instead served as another reminder that this has turned into a lost season for the Bucks, who may not even make the Play-In Tournament in the Eastern Conference and yet are not in line for a top lottery pick.
Now 26-34, the Bucks sit in 11th place in the Eastern Conference, 3 ½ games behind the Charlotte Hornets for the final play-in spot and four games behind the Atlanta Hawks for ninth place (+350 to make the tournament, per DraftKings). With 22 games remaining, there's still time for the Bucks to make a run, but Monday's result did not inspire confidence.
Antetokounmpo, who was on a minutes restriction, finished with 19 points and 11 rebounds on 7 of 18 from the field Monday in his first game action since Jan. 23, when he strained his right calf for the second time this season.
"Felt good, felt a little bit rusty, but obviously something new in my career being out for such a long time and not just one time, multiple times into a season," Antetokounmpo said after the game. "Definitely disrupt my rhythm, but at the end of the day, I just try to take it day by day, game by game. I'm happy that I'm back, I'm just happy that I'm on the court. ... Obviously did not play well tonight, but at the end of the day I'm just happy that I'm out there being able to help my teammates in any way that I can and just do what I love, which is play basketball."
Antetokounmpo hasn't been able to do that much this season. A groin strain and multiple calf strains have limited him to 30 appearances. He's already been eliminated from award contention and is guaranteed to play the fewest number of games in his career in what might be his final season in Milwaukee.
Trade rumors have been swirling since last summer, when Antetokounmpo reportedly told the Bucks that the New York Knicks were the one team he would play for outside of Milwaukee, prompting calls between the organizations. Antetokounmpo has maintained publicly that he has not, and will not, request a trade, but has also repeatedly stated his desire to compete for another championship before the end of his prime -- something that is not currently possible in Milwaukee.
So for now, he stays, albeit with a new look. Antetokounmpo admitted Monday that more than a decade of wear and tear on his body is starting to take a toll, teaching him to handle injuries differently than he did earlier in his career:
"I think, being in the NBA 13 years, I've been injured a lot. I've sprained my ankles, I've hyperextended my knee, my back has been hurting me, sprained my wrist. And I'm able to come back. Like, when the doctor tells me two, three, four weeks, I'm able to cut that time in half and come back... So I thought it'd be the same and I think that's sometimes not good because it's just like a false reality. It's not always going to be that case and I felt like this year was going to be the same thing. Like, OK, yeah, hurt my groin, had to be out three weeks, four weeks, came back in 10 days.
But I'm 31 years old, just gotta be smarter moving forward because things that I was able to do in the past, maybe I'm not able to do now. And I've just gotta be more methodical with my rehab, the way I take care of my body, the way that I play. But yeah, that's pretty much it. Moving forward I just gotta be smarter."
Antetokounmpo may have accepted a more cautious rehab, but he did not accept the idea of sitting out for the remainder of the season to allow the Bucks to tank for better lottery odds. He confirmed Monday that, despite some reports to the contrary, he was always planning to come back to try and lead the Bucks to the playoffs.
While admirable, Antetokounmpo's desire to compete at all costs -- and the Bucks' desire to keep him in Milwaukee -- led the organization down a dead end last summer. Jon Horst waived Damian Lillard and stretched his contract over the next five years, then used the cap space to sign Myles Turner, who has been playing less than Jericho Sims lately. Fighting their way into the playoffs via the Play-In Tournament rather than sinking into the lottery would only be a continuation of that path.
The Bucks do not control their own first-round pick until 2031, but they will receive the less favorable of their pick and the New Orleans Pelicans' pick (now owned by the Hawks) in this year's draft. Because the Pelicans have the sixth-worst record and are right in the mix for one of the three worst records, the Bucks will likely get to keep their pick after all.
When Antetokounmpo went down with his calf injury in late January ahead of the trade deadline, there was briefly a plausible scenario where the Bucks sank low enough in the standings that, with a little lottery luck, they would win up with a top-five pick. Though that is technically still possible, they will now be lucky to hold on to a top-10 selection.
The Bucks did not trade Antetokounmpo, and in fact went on a surprise 8-2 run without him in February, which Bobby Portis called "fool's gold, for real" on Monday. The hot streak did nothing but worsen their lottery standing. Now, the Play-In is within striking distance and the Greek Freak is back
As bad as things looked Monday, Antetokounmpo is going to single-handedly win the Bucks some games once he's off his minutes restriction and back to his best. They'll probably win a few more thanks to their hold on the sixth-easiest remaining schedule. For the Bucks' sake, they'll have to hope they're too far behind the Hornets and Hawks for it to matter.
For more than a decade, the Bucks and their star player have been in lock step. But right now, the only thing Antetokounmpo wants -- winning -- is the last thing the Bucks need.
