NBA Cup semifinals expert picks, odds: Victor Wembanyama returns, OKC advances, Knicks survive Paolo Banchero

Welcome to Vegas! For the third time in as many seasons, the NBA Cup is shifting to Sin City for its dramatic conclusion, and the league couldn't have asked for a more compelling group of finalists. The defending champion (June variety, not Cup variety) Oklahoma City Thunder, the league's brightest young star in Victor Wembanyama, the Eastern Conference favorite New York Knicks, and the Orlando Magic, who are now 14-6 since their 1-4 start.

The players on our four finalists have all earned at least six figures, but there's still quite a bit of money on the line. Semifinals losers will pocket $102,994 per player, while the loser of the championship game doubles that figure for $205,988. The winner of the whole tournament walks away with $514,971 per player, but be honest, you're more interested in how you can make money off of this thing than the players. Fortunately, we've got you covered. Below are our best bets for both semifinal matchups on Saturday.

Orlando Magic vs. New York Knicks

The Magic have developed a bit of a reputation for playing through injuries lately, but which injuries are essential here? The Magic turned their season around with Paolo Banchero sidelined, but since his rookie year, they are 31-27 without him in the lineup. Now Banchero is back, but just like last season, Franz Wagner got hurt soon after. That's a tougher injury for the Magic to stomach. Orlando is 13-22 without Wagner in the lineup in that same span. This season, Magic lineups featuring Banchero but no Wagner have been outscored by 5.7 points per 100 possessions, so the safe pick here is the Knicks, especially now that OG Anunoby is back in the fold. The Pick: Knicks -5.5

I'm leaning under for a few reasons. There's the fact that this is a big game in an unusual environment that tips at a weird time (2:30 local), and that could lead to shooting struggles as players deal with the disturbance to their routine. We have a relatively slow Knicks team on one end of the floor and a Magic team that will be playing hard on the other, seeking some measure of revenge after Wagner got hurt against New York. And then there's the matter of history. Every NBA Cup game in Vegas that did not involve Tyrese Haliburton went under this total. Granted, that's only four games, so take it with a grain of salt, but as we saw last postseason, Haliburton is immune to pressure. Everyone else seems to play a bit tight under the bright lights, so altogether, I have a slight under lean. The Pick: Under 224.5

I'm working a theory here: Paolo Banchero has averaged 22.8 shots per game in the playoffs in his career. Is this a playoff game? No. But he tends to be at his most shot-happy in big games, and by regular-season standards, this one qualifies, especially with Wagner out. So I'm going to take Banchero's over on the basis of volume. He'll put up a lot of shots and hit enough to hit the over. The Pick: Banchero Over 22.5 Points

San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

If you just want to know who's going to win the game? You should pick the Thunder because they've only lost once. Picking them to lose a game is irresponsible. Picking their opponent to cover? A bit more plausible. The Thunder are only 14-11 against the spread. In fairness, that's mostly because their spreads are typically massive, but that's the case here. The Spurs are 10.5-point underdogs. Well, they've only lost three games by double digits all season, and they've never lost by more than 13. The Spurs don't really get blown out. Their three-headed guard monster of De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper is as good an answer to Oklahoma City's ball-pressure as there is in the NBA. The Spurs are a pretty low-turnover team, and they draw a fair number of fouls, both of which are useful against the Thunder. Plus, Victor Wembanyama is expected back. That's a nice little cherry on top here. The Pick: Spurs +10.5

The Thunder rank just 15th in pace for the season... but fourth since Jalen Williams returned to the lineup. Their lowest-scoring game since then, their blowout quarterfinal win over the Suns, totaled 227 points, just half a point under this game's total. They've blown by it in their five other games in that span. The Thunder have a historic defense, but if both teams are flying up and down the floor, the points can rack up pretty quickly, even if they aren't coming all that efficiently. These are two of the NBA's most athletic groups, so I'm expecting a more offensive game. The Pick: Over 227.5

There's going to be an instinct to go under on Wembanyama's lines for fear of a minutes limit. Counterpoint: he averaged over 30 minutes in games in which he returned from an absence last season. Obviously, he's never returned from an absence this long before, but the Spurs have tended to allow him most of his usual workload in return games before. Plus, Wembanyama absolutely relishes big moments, and he's had so few of them in the NBA. Think of opening night or the Paris trip last year. He's going to want to put on a show, especially against Chet Holmgren. I'm expecting fireworks. The Pick: Wembanyama Over 17.5 Points