If you've followed the NBA for even a modicum of time, you've surely heard any number of pundits and fans alike talking about a particular player taking "the leap." It means different things for different players. For some, it's a leap bad to serviceable, or from serviceable to good, or from good to great, or, finally, from a star to superstar.
It's signals more than just natural improvement. It's a leap. And the 10 players below feel poised to take it in the 2024-25 season.
Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
Does this even need to be explained? Wembanyama is poised to be the league's best defender and one of the 10-15 best players overall in his second season. If that isn't a leap, what is?
Go look at the success he and the Spurs had with Tre Jones as his point guard. Nothing special. Just highly functional stuff. Getting Wemby the ball at the right spot at the right time. Do that, and he's going to do his thing. Who did the Spurs sign this summer? Chris Paul. Even at nearly 40 years old, point guard play isn't going to get much more functional than Paul.
For Wemby, Defensive Player of the Year and even All-NBA feel like near certainties. MVP votes are not out of the question. The Spurs are slow playing this and giving him room to explore his vast skill ranges, but his feel for the game is obvious. He knows how to play. He's not doing stuff just to do it. His passing has gone to another level already, and this season he should start moving closer to understanding his particular shot spots and how best to reach them. He'll probably be in for another massive leap in year three. But year two is going to be quite a show.
Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder
Already one of the best defenders in the league, Holmgren's leap, if it happens, will come on the offensive end -- where he can become a higher-volume 3-point shooter (his 4.3 attempts per game could justifiably jump to six or even seven) and someone who creates more for himself rather than existing almost entirely as a roller and spacer.
It remains to be seen how much OKC positions him to do the latter. Obviously Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is going to control things and Jalen Williams carries a lot of creative weight, but he Thunder move. The ball pops. They cut. By virtue of the activity Holmgren will find himself in more and more leveraged situations, and attacking those with his handle and ability to get to his own shot could turn him into a 20 PPG guy in relatively short order.
Brandon Miller, Charlotte Hornets
A lot of people laughed at the Hornets for taking Miller with the second pick in 2023 over Scoot Henderson (I was one of them). If their respective rookie seasons are any indication of what's to come, Charlotte will be having the last laugh as Miller was superb in his first NBA campaign at 17 PPG on 37% 3-point shooting. It wasn't the most efficient shooting season, and that's where Miller makes the leap in year two.
Miller is a natural midrange scorer, but he is also a capable high-flying finisher if he takes the step of playing through contact, and he can stretch some of those long twos back beyond the arc. Last season, Miller took just under seven 3s per game; this season he could, and probably should, be taking closer to 10 triples on a nightly basis. A slight shift in the shot diet and Miller is going to be an easy 20 PPG guy. He might hit that number this season on what feels like an inevitable progression toward being the best player on the team.
Scoot Henderson, Portland Trail Blazers
Shaedon Sharpe is probably the guy in Portland who looks, on paper, more poised for a traditional leap into greater prominence as a 20 PPG scorer, but Henderson, by virtue of how underwhelming his rookie season was, has so much room for improvement that even a few steps forward is going to feel like a leap.
Henderson is a good bet to take more than a few steps. First, he shot 82% from the free-throw line, which suggests his shooting in general should be able to at least sustain, if not improve upon, the 35% clip that he registered from 3-point land after the All-Star break last season. Over his final seven games he put up over 19 points and nine assists on 42% 3-point shooting.
Small sample, yes, but Henderson's raw ability is unquestionable and now that we've seen some basis of skill development, from leveled-up passing to pull-up jumpers and range shooting, Henderson feels ripe for potentially the biggest second-year leap of anyone on this list.
Jalen Johnson, Atlanta Hawks
Johnson has already broken out, averaging 16 points, eight boards and almost four assists last season. Now comes the leap into, dare I say, fringe All-Star territory? He has that kind of ability, and he won't be lacking for opportunity. The Hawks love him, and rightfully so. Reports have indicated he was their only untouchable player this summer.
Atlanta's wing chart is saturated but Johnson is penciled in at the four. He's going to become a pretty regular 20-point scorer, if not a nightly one. Paired with Trae Young, he has all the makings of what John Collins was becoming before his developing 3-point shot disappeared and his place in the Atlanta offense followed. He can jump out of the gym and shoot from deep. He can really pass, too. He's the kind of long, athletic defender everyone covets. Johnson just needs to stay healthy. If he does, his stock is going to soar.
Jonathan Kuminga, Golden State Warriors
Not enough people realize how good Kuminga already is because he never feels like he's good enough for the Warriors to be passing up big-name trades in order to keep him. There's a reason they are set on him. Kuminga averaged 16 PPG last season, and with limitless athleticism and ideal positional size his ceiling feels pretty damn high.
He's a better shooter than his 32% 3-point clip last season suggests; he just needs to be confident and in rhythm, and this year there likely won't be any messing with his minutes. As one of only guys who offer an athletic advantage for the Warriors, he needs to make a leap if the Warriors intend on being a playoff team. My bet is close to 20 PPG on increasing efficiency and defensive impact more in line with his physical and athletic profile.
Brandin Podziemski, Golden State Warriors
Podziemski shot better than 38% from 3 last season on just over four attempts per game. He has said the Warriors want him to at least double that volume this year to 8-10 3s per game.
On that alone, Podz, who was a first-team All-Rookie player last year and might well be the biggest reason Lauri Markkanen isn't a Warrior (Golden State basically refused to give him up in a trade this summer), is poised to leap from nine points per game to potentially 15-plus with a much more featured role and the freedom to fire away in the absence of Klay Thompson.
Where will Podziemski find all these extra 3s? He's already noted shots he had last season that he simply passed up, but he can also dial up his own creation. Albeit in small samples, Podziemski made 42.5% of his off-the-dribble 3-pointers last season, per Synergy, while converting 41% of his pull-up 3s and an eye-popping 56.5% of his step-backs according to NBA shot-tracking data.
Jabari Smith Jr., Houston Rockets
The Rockets have a small army of leap candidates. Amen Thompson feels like an Andre Iguodala in the making. Cam Whitmore feels like a young Corey Maggette. Jalen Green has the goods to become an All-Star. Alperen Sengun is already awesome, and like Green, he's also only entering his fourth season. But Smith, who is Houston's most well-rounded player, is the guy to really watch.
Smith is already quite good, but you have to look a bit deeper in the cracks of the game to fully appreciate his value, as opposed to a guy like Jalen Green, whose scoring and shot creation pops but may lack some substance. Smith is pure substance, on both ends, and the shooting efficiency improved dramatically (40% to 45% overall and 30% to 36% from 3) from year one to two.
Smith's growing confidence stands out. He's looking for his shot more often, and aggressively pursuing his spots as a self-creator. A jump from 13 to 17ish PPG feels plenty doable, and given all the things that Smith does defensively, that's starting to flirt with best-player-on-the-team status.
Keyonte George, Utah Jazz
George can clearly score, though the efficiency needs to ratchet up considerably, but the Jazz clearly want him to be the point guard of the future and thus need to see development in his decision making and stewardship of the offense. The opportunity is there for him to take a big leap this season.
His talent suggests he'll take advantage. What would constitute a leap? On paper, let's get that shooting percentage up from below 40 to the mid 40s, and the 3-point clip to at least league average. If he can do that, given his creativity, tough-shot-making ability and burst, 16-18 PPG, up from 13, is reasonable.
But it's beyond raw numbers. To me, George clearly has it. Even as a score-first guy, it's easy to see him parlaying that scoring threat into opportunities for teammates on a consistent basis, and before long his being the guy that is controlling more of the court than anyone else. When he's clicking, which he was in plenty of stretches las a rookie, he has that kind of gravitas with the ball in his hands. I would expect an impressive sophomore campaign from George.
Andrew Nembhard, Indiana Pacers
Nembhard's breakout officially started in the playoffs, where shot 48% from 3 and was Indiana's best player against Boston in the conference finals, registering 56 points and 19 assists over the final two games of the series.
Those hard numbers aren't going to become the norm, but Nembhard, who went from 18 minutes a game in November to consistently near 30 by the end of the regular season, is about to land on a lot more radars this season when he should be good for close to 30 minutes a night on average, double-digit scoring and plus 3-point shooting to go with his typical ball-pressure defense.
Like young Goran Dragic, Immanuel Quickley and early Fred VanVleet, Nembhard could be the next backup point guard we start talking about as potentially worthy of his own team.