NBA Playoff Picture: Magic numbers and scenarios for April 4

With 12 days until the NBA playoffs, we're seeing real separation, and some tough races. The Cavs and Raptors will be the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in the East, with the Warriors and Spurs on top in the West. 

The most compelling race with major stakes is in the East with the Celtics, Heat, Hawks and Hornets. Those four spots could finish in any order, as could Detroit, Indiana and Chicago for the 7-8-9 spots. (So long, Wizards!) 

The West is pretty much down to whether Portland will jump Memphis, how far the Grizzlies will fall and who winds up out from Dallas, Houston and Utah. It shifts day by day, game by game and every time a team gains an advantage, they let up. 

Most of these races will come down to the wire. 

Your big takeaways from Sunday: 

•Boston started the weekend in sixth and finished fourth.

•The Rockets' win over the Thunder helped them immensely for setting up a late move to get back in a playoff spot. 

•Charlotte dropped from third to sixth after losing to the Cavs.

•The Grizzlies are still a trash can rolling down a hill. On fire. 

•The Celtics clinched a playoff spot.

Couple of reminders: 1. Magic numbers refer to the number of wins by a team and losses by the team beneath the spot they are competing for in order to clinch a spot. 2. We don't factor future matchups that necessitate a loss between the two teams (see our week one update for more). 3. Division titles no longer secure you a top-four seed, but they do secure a tiebreaker after head-to-head season series. So if teams tie 1-1 or 2-2, and one team won its division and the other did not, then the division winner gets the tiebreaker. 

The data you'll find is based on the SportsLine model forecast. All data is as of Saturday afternoon. 

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Notable Tuesday games: Bucks at Cavs, Hornets at Raptors

The Cavaliers clinched a playoff spot and home court through the second round. Their magic number for the No. 1 seed is three following their win over the Hornets. 

A slight Raptors dip created a slight spread in their advantage; the Cavs lead Toronto by three in the loss column. That's likely enough for them to hold off the Raptors. The Raptors have started resting players, conceding the 1-spot. 

It's still probably going to take until the end of next week at the earliest for them to clinch, which means they won't be able to completely shut down the starters for more than really a week.  

As for a matchup schedule, you have to like their chances vs. an inexperienced Detroit team. The Bulls are probably the toughest likely first-round opponent, but then, losing to LeBron in the playoffs is a spring tradition for Chicago and Jimmy Butler's knee is torn to shreds. Indiana lacks the firepower to be able to hang with Cleveland.

Second-round matchups are where it gets interesting. If the Heat were to secure the No. 4 seed, it might honestly not be bad at all for the Cavs to get the No. 2 seed and avoid them until a potential conference finals matchup. I'm not suggesting they need to avoid the Heat, but if the Heat wind up with the No. 3 seed and the Cavs in the No. 2 spot, that's the worst possible set of outcomes, even if Cleveland will be heavily favored. 

SportsLine's confidence in them keps wavering. The best team in the East has just a 14 percent chance by SportsLine's model for winning the title. How amazing is that?

Notable Tuesday games: Bucks at Cavs, Hornets at Raptors

The Raptors clinched a playoff spot and a top-two seed. They are now three games back of the Cavaliers in the loss column, with six left to play. So the Raptors would need Cleveland to close 2-3 to catch them just by winning out. 

They are effectively locked into the 2-seed. 

The Pacers matchup in the 2-7 is most likely, due to Detroit's upcoming schedule, and that could be tough with the Pacers' size and Paul George. Much of it will depend on if DeMarre Carroll can return, which seems unlikely at this point. Still, they'll be heavily favored vs. Indiana. And as of right now, Toronto faces Detroit. Andre Drummond's size and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope could disrupt things defensively. It would be a fascinating matchup. 

SportsLine remains really unimpressed with Toronto, giving them just a 67 percent chance to get out of the first round, and just a 36 percent chance to reach the conference finals.

Notable Tuesday games: Hornets at Raptors, Pistons at Heat, Suns at Hawks

The Hornets clinched a playoff spot with Chicago's loss Saturday, then slid back into the six spot, all the way down from third, after losing to Cleveland Sunday.

If they just handle business vs. the weaker teams left on their schedule, they should be able to secure a top-six seed and avoid the Raptors and Cavaliers, though Toronto might not be something to really worry about avoiding. 

Charlotte's in the mishmash for the No.3 through No.6 spots, and it's going to take a while for this to sort out.

There's no opponent you can really feel "good" about Charlotte facing, even if it landed a 3-6 Indiana matchup (which would require a number of unlikely things to occur). But there is reason to think the Hornets can make a run if they do find some unknown matchup advantage. Charlotte only has a 4 percent chance via SportsLine of reaching the second round, but those odds have improved considerably over the past week and should rise as their soft schedule continues.

Notable Tuesday games: Hornets at Raptors, Pistons at Heat, Suns at Hawks

Atlanta has clinched a playoff spot. They moved into the three spot with Charlotte's loss Sunday.

The Hawks are tied with Boston in the loss column and have a 2-1 lead in the head-to-head tiebreaker with one to play, and if Atlanta wins the Southeast, it will hold the tiebreaker over Boston regardless. Their first-round matchup is pretty stark in terms of expected outcome depending on who they face. The Hawks are 1-3 vs. the Heat, while a combined 5-2 vs. the Hornets and Celtics. They ideally want a 3-6 matchup with either of those two teams, and then have to figure out the Raptors (or Cavs) in the second round. 

The Hawks have the toughest remaining schedule in the East. They face just two teams outside of the playoffs through the rest of the season. It's a big opportunity for them, but there is also a very real risk to falling to the No. 6 spot. 

Note that SportsLine projects the Hawks with a better chance of reaching the conference finals than Toronto and thrice as good a chance as Miami. They are the second favorite to win the Eastern Conference by SportsLine's odds. They have also established themselves as a 69 percent favorite for home court in the first round according to SportsLine.

Notable Tuesday games: Hornets at Raptors, Pistons at Heat, Suns at Hawks

The Celtics have clinched a playoff spot. They can finish no higher than the No. 3 seed, after the Raptors clinched the division title. They beat the best team in the league Friday, maybe the best team in history, and gained no ground, then moved up two spots over the weekend thanks to other teams losing. That's the East. 

Most interestingly, the Celtics close vs. the Hawks, Hornets and Heat. They'll control much of their destiny for which seed they want, most likely. Say Atlanta drops to the No. 6 seed with that tough schedule. If Boston and Miami are tied going into the final game, with the choice of facing the Hawks or Hornets in the first round, do they tank to face the Hornets? That, of course, means Cleveland in the second round. 

It's not an easy set of decisions. 

Trying to figure out an ideal first-round opponent for Boston remains complicated. Miami looks like a tough matchup, but the Celtics are 2-0 vs. the Heat, while Atlanta seems softer and yet the Hawks lead the season series 2-1. The ideal matchup is probably Charlotte; Boston has a surface matchup advantage and a 2-0 season-series lead.

You can't feel terrible about the Boston's chances against any of its potential first-round opponents or considerably confident either. SportsLine's confidence surged after the Warriors win, jumping 20 percentage points for their odds to land homecourt in the first round. 

Notable Tuesday games: Hornets at Raptors, Pistons at Heat, Suns at Hawks

The Miami Heat clinched a playoff spot with Chicago's loss to Detroit Saturday.

They're in the thick of it with Atlanta, Boston and Charlotte in East Tier 2, and are now fifth after Charlotte's loss Sunday. The Heat would proably be satisfied with a 3-6 matchup, giving them Toronto, which doesn't scare anyone in Round 2, and the 3-6 matchups aren't specifically tougher or easier than the 4-5. Miami will face one of Atlanta, Boston or Charlotte in Round 1 most likely, with an outside chance it's Detroit. Just for reference, they are 3-1 vs. Atlanta, 0-2 vs. Boston, 2-2 vs. Charlotte and 0-2 vs. Detroit this season. Boston's probably a tougher matchup overall, and Miami will have its work cut out in any of those three potential series.

One thing that is likely to provide an advantage is Miami's tiebreaker edge head-to-head vs. Atlanta, and its 3-1 lead in that matchup would help in a potential three-way tie with Charlotte. They are out of luck head-to-head vs. Boston, however, with only one game remaining in the season series. 

SportsLine gives the Heat a less than 13-percent chance to reach the conference finals, but if they get Chris Bosh back, they're going to be in a good position to make a run. They have experience and star power, which some of the opponents they could face lack. Miami's going to be a tough out. SportsLine, however, feels they'll wind up in the sixth seed and most likely won't reach the second round. 

Notable Tuesday games:Pistons at Heat, Bulls at Grizzlies

The Pistons have greatly improved their odds of reaching the playoffs in ten days' time. They tallied a monster win over Chicago on Saturday. Entering the night their magic number was six. They won, which knocked it to five. They gave Chicago a loss, which knocked it to four. And they secured tiebreaker over Chicago, bringing their magic number for a playoff spot to just three. 

Here's the bad news: The Pistons' schedule is brutal. Only two of their final five are at home, one is vs. the Heat, and they play the Cavs on the road. If they're going to make the playoffs, they're going to have to earn it, but the rest of their competitors are flailing. On top of that, they've already run into the Thunder without Durant, and the Cavs are likely to be resting as well. 

Oh, and did I mention they have two back to backs in five games?

SportsLine gives them an 95 percent chance at the postseason after their big win Saturday. Everything has broken just right for Detroit in the past week.

Notable Tuesday games: Pistons at Heat, Bulls at Grizzlies

The Pacers' magic number for the playoffs is four after hanging on for a win vs. New York.  They are firmly on the bubble for the playoffs, up two in the loss column on Chicago. They're on the inside curve, but their margin for error is very slim. They have a home-heavy schedule, where they are an "OK" 23-15. With their win Sunday, they moved back into 7th. 

Indiana has the second-weakest remaining schedule, with opponents at just a .433 winning percentage. 

SportsLine is extremely confident in the Pacers' chances of making the playoffs, pegging them at 89 percent. That's down slightly from last week, but still high.

Notable Tuesday games: Pistons at Heat, Bulls at Grizzlies

Chicago falls apart, falls out of the playoffs, then comes up with monster wins vs. the Rockets and Pacers. Then they fall apart again, and that Detroit loss really stung. The highest they can mathematically reach is the seventh seed, and now they trail the Pistons by two games in the loss column, and Detroit has tiebreaker. The only good news is that they hold tiebreaker over Indiana. 

Still, you just can't trust them at this point. That loss Saturday was brutal. The win Sunday kept them from total panic mode, but also didn't help them gain any ground. 

SportsLine doesn't believe they'll make it, at just an 11 percent chance of the eighth seed after their loss Saturday night. They needed that game. 

Notable Tuesday games: Pistons at Heat, Bulls at Grizzlies

The Wizards had every opportunity to sneak into the postseason. Instead, they completely fell apart with losses to the Timberwolves, Warriors, and the Kings. I've gone ahead and declared it over. They're four back in the loss column with five to go. It's over.  

SportsLine gives them just a five percent chance of the playoffs. They have no one but themselves to blame.

Well, that and injuries.  

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Notable Tuesday games: Wolves at Warriors, Spurs at Jazz

The Warriors clinched a playoff spot, the division title, home-court advantage in the first two rounds and a top-two seed. 

They're pretty good. 

Their magic number is two for home court throughout the playoffs; that's a lock with their win-loss profile. But it's all about the pursuit of 73 wins at this point. San Antonio has started resting players and won't chase Golden State. 

To put this in perspective, the Warriors have lost seven games all season. They lead the Spurs by four games in the loss column. So a team that has lost seven games all season would have to lose at least four games -- including two to the Spurs -- and San Antonio would have to win out, just for the Spurs to take it on the tiebreaker. 

That doesn't seem likely, does it? 

There is no team in the eighth spot that is likely to take even a game from them, and there's no team in the second round who should raise a concern during a seven-game series. Their path to the title is crystal clear. It is very unlikely they lose a game until the second round, and even that looks dubious.

Notable Tuesday games: Wolves at Warriors, Spurs at Jazz

The Spurs clinched a playoff spot, the division title and home court in the first two rounds, along with a top-two seed. The Spurs have started to rest players and are now five games back in the loss column from Golden State. They're going to be the No. 2 seed.  

Considering the Mavs' Chandler Parsons is likely out the rest of the season, the Blazers are falling back to Earth, the Grizzlies are shot to pieces due to injury and with the Jazz only average as of late, there is no team that should concern San Antonio. 

They are on a collision course to meet Oklahoma City in the second round. 

Stunningly, SportsLine gives the Spurs just a 14 percent chance at winning the title, just ten percent better than the Thunder. Most of that is of course how overwhelming a favorite Golden State is at 63 percent.

Notable Sunday games: Thunder at Nuggets, Lakers at Clippers

The Thunder clinched a playoff spot and home court in the first round. Their magic number for the No. 3 seed is one. 

OKC is mathematically eliminated from a top-two seed, and leads the Clippers by four games in the loss column. The Thunder also own a tiebreaker over the Clippers, so the lead is 4 1/2 games with five games remaining. They're a lock for the No. 3 seed.

They're going to face someone relatively tough in the first round, and then the Spurs in the second round, and if they survive all that, they get the Warriors (in all likelihood) in the Western Conference finals. SportsLine, however, is comparatively confident in the Thunder, giving them the fourth-best chance at a title, and a very-decent 32 percent chance of reaching the conference finals. 

Notable Tuesday games: Thunder at Nuggets, Lakers at Clippers

The Clippers have clinched a playoff spot and hoecourt in the first-round. They can finish no worse than fourth. They're four games behind the Thunder in the loss column with six games to go. That ship has sailed, so to speak. 

The Clippers will be the No. 4 seed and face either a pesky, physical, annoying Grizzlies team, or a hot-shooting, nothing-to-lose Blazers team. (There's also a chance one of the Rockets, Mavericks, and Jazz make a run.)  If they advance, they'll have to go to Oracle. 

Portland would probably be a preferred first-round opponent, but Memphis is so injured, you just can't expect them to put up a fight either. SportsLine gives them a 66 percent chance of advancing to the second round. 

And then just a four percent chance of beating the Warriors. Sounds about right. 

Notable Tuesday games: Grizzlies at Bulls, Blazers at Kings, Spurs at Jazz

The Grizzlies' magic number for a playoff spot, unbelievably, is just three. They lead Portland by just one game in the loss column with five to go, and Portland tied them in the win column Saturday. They are as near a lock as you can be to make the postseason without it being absolutely certain. With those injuries, I'm not completely ruling out a catastrophic collapse. They just have too tough a schedule and too many injuries. They're barely an NBA team at this point. They just signed their 28th player on the season, Bryce Cotton. 

The Clippers are obviously the preferred target, but the Thunder would probably be annoyed to deal with the Grizzlies. Anything they accomplish from here on out, with those injuries, is gravy. With injury issues and a difficult schedule, even locking up the No. 5 seed would be impressive for Memphis. 

A slide to eight is not out of the question. SportsLine expects them to fall to the sixth seed, and their odds of making the playoffs have fallen just slightly to 96 percent. They have just a 2.56 percent chance of beating their first-round opponent, which is stunning for a five-seed. Compare that with the Hornets, who SportsLine projects as the five-seed, with a 40 percent chance of a first-round upset. 

Notable Tuesday games: Grizzlies at Bulls, Blazers at Kings, Spurs at Jazz

The Blazers' magic number for the playoffs is three. 

Portland's through the rough part of their schedule. They face one playoff team (the Thunder who will be resting) in their final four games. They have a good chance of taking the six-seed and getting a nice matchup with the Clippers. 

The Clippers seem like a preferred first-round opponent, but Portland is 1-3 vs. L.A. They've established a three-game lead in the loss column over Houston.. 

They are unlikely to make much noise, but with Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum, they have a higher chance to turn heads than any of the other lower seeds, and SportsLine agrees, at a 36 percent chance. 

Notable Tuesday games: Grizzlies at Bulls, Blazers at Kings, Spurs at Jazz

A soft stretch of schedule has opened the door, and they've snuck back into the seventh spot. Their magic number is five after their win Sunday. 

The schedule looks tough, but it needs context. It's an even balance of home and road games, and only one back to back. They face the inconsistent Rockets (in a huge game) and the injury-plagued Grizzlies. They close with the Clippers, Jazz, and Spurs, but San Antonio and the Clippers will definitely be resting then. The Jazz game looms huge, as does the Houston game.

They're in trouble, but at least the door is open. If they beat Houston, it'll put them a significant step ahead. On the other hand, if they lose, Houston catches them, and clinch tiebreaker. 

SportsLine gives them the worst odds of any team with a notable chance of reaching the postseason in the West at just 60 percent, despite holding pole position in the seventh spot currently. Dallas' odds did rise by eleven percentage points after their win over Detroit. They're trending in the right direction. 

Notable Tuesday games: Spurs at Jazz, Grizzlies at Bulls, Blazers at Kings

The Jazz have a soft closing schedule, with three of their final six at home. They fell back to eighth after losing to the Warriors and lead Houston by one game in the loss column.

They are, however, in good position with three of their final six vs. teams below .500. Their final three are against the Nuggets, Mavs and Lakers. If they can sweep those three games, they'll be in great position to secure a playoff spot. They get help no matter what on Wednesday as the Mavericks face the Rockets. 

SpotsLine's confidence has dipped slightly since Thursday, at 68 percent. 

Utah's magic number is six for a playoff spot. 

Notable Sunday games: Thunder at Rockets, Mavs at Wolves, Jazz at Suns

The Rockets got a monster win vs. OKC at full strength Sunday. They gained no ground with that win, but they also didn't lose any in a game that looked like a loss on paper. Their closing schedule is soft, with their final four with the Suns, Lakers, Wolves and Kings. It's hard to have confidence in them given how their season has gone, but they just need to stay within range until those final four games. 

Wednesday is judgment day, with this game vs. the Mavs. Lose, and they could be two back in the loss column if the Spurs decide to rest vs. Utah. If they win, they secure tiebreaker over Dallas, and flip the Mavs behind them no matter what happens with the Jazz. It's a must-win. 

However, with how they've played this season, you can definitely say they're on the bubble. SportsLine, however, gives them a 76 percent chance at the postseason.