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Wednesday features just one NBA playoff game, but boy is it a massive one. The Cleveland Cavaliers were able to win Games 3 and 4 of their second-round series against the Detroit Pistons in front of their home crowd, so the action returns to Detroit where the victor of Game 5 will take a key 3-2 lead. The Pistons won Games 1 and 2 at home by 10 points in each game, and they're looking to take advantage of being at home. The winner of this series faces the New York Knicks in the Eastern Conference Finals after New York swept the Philadelphia 76ers.

Here, we'll break down the NBA best bets for Wednesday's Game 5 matchup between the Cavaliers and Pistons using the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and FanDuel Sportsbook odds. The model has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight-plus seasons. The model entered the second round of the 2026 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 26-9 roll (74%) on top-rated NBA spread picks this season. Anyone following its NBA betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.

Check out the FanDuel promo code before placing bets on Cavaliers vs. Pistons Game 5 on Wednesday.

NBA Playoffs picks, best bets for Wednesday, May 13

Pistons money line

Detroit is naturally favored at home for Game 5, especially after winning Games 1 and 2 over the Cavs at Little Caesars Arena. The Pistons went 31-9 at home in the regular season and are 5-1 in Detroit this postseason, winning each of their last five home contests. The SportsLine model expects that trend to continue on Wednesday as the Pistons win in 74% of simulations, good for an 'A' grade.

Over 211.5

Three of the first four games of this series have cleared this line, and the Cavs are 25-21 to the Over as a road team this season. Nine of Cleveland's 11 playoff games have had 212 or more points scored, while six of Detroit's 11 have cleared this line. The model has the Over hitting in the majority of simulations. 

James Harden Under 26.5 points + assists

Harden's postseason struggles are well documented at this point as the former MVP has hardly lived up to the hype in the brightest moments. He was a big part of the Cavs' two wins at home, though, especially Game 4, where "The Beard" dropped 24 points while dishing out 11 assists. Harden has gone Over 26.5 points + rebounds in two games this series, but the model is taking the Under here with a projection of 24.3 for Game 5.

Cade Cunningham Over 8.5 assists

Cunningham has gone Over 8.5 assists in five of his 11 playoff games this year, including two in this round against the Cavaliers. Cunningham was an elite distributor this regular season at 9.9 assists per game, and the model has him projected for 9.6 assists in this key Game 5 tilt.