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The New York Knicks can move on to the Eastern Conference Finals on Sunday if they complete their four-game sweep of the Philadelphia 76ers. Over in the Western Conference, the San Antonio Spurs are up 2-1 on the Minnesota Timberwolves heading into Sunday, with a massive Game 4 on tap Sunday night. 

With these two Game 4 matchups highlighting the sports schedule on Sunday, we've identified the best NBA bets using the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times before issuing its top picks. The model has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight-plus seasons. The model entered the second round of the 2026 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 26-9 roll (74%) on top-rated NBA spread picks this season. Anyone following its NBA betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.

Here, we break down the model's top picks for Sunday's two-game slate, including a pair of money line picks and two player prop bets. Odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Bettors can also combine two or more of the model's best bets into a parlay bet at FanDuel for a potentially greater profit.

See the FanDuel promo code for a new-user offer before placing any NBA Playoffs bets on Sunday.

NBA Playoffs picks, best bets for Sunday, May 10

Knicks money line vs. 76ers

The Knicks fell behind 2-1 to Atlanta after losing both Game 2 and 3 of that series by one point, and they have certainly turned the page, winning six straight to put themselves within arm's reach of another Eastern Conference Finals appearance. A trip back home didn't work out for the 76ers, who lost Game 3 by 14 points in Philadelphia. The model thinks the Knicks will close out this series on Sunday with New York winning Game 4 in 66% of simulations. 

Jalen Brunson Over 26.5 points

Brunson is the Knicks' best player, and he's certainly looked the part this series, averaging 31.3 points per game. He's gone Over 26.5 points in two of the first three games of this series, with the lone Under coming in a 26-point night in Game 2. The model pegs him for 27.5 points in Game 4 as the Knicks aim to wrap this series up. 

Timberwolves money line vs. Spurs

The Timberwolves stole Game 1 by two points to stun the Spurs at home, but it's been all San Antonio since, with the Spurs winning Game 2 by 38 points before taking Game 3 in Minnesota by seven. The Timberwolves looked a lot better in Game 3 than they did in Game 2, especially with Anthony Edwards playing 41 minutes compared to 24 in Game 2. Edwards scored 32 points in the losing effort, which is certainly a good sign for the Timberwolves. Minnesota wins Game 4 in 47% of simulations at plus money to return value at these odds.

Victor Wembanyama Under 38.5 points + rebounds

Wembanyama went off in Game 3 with 39 points and 15 rebounds to easily clear this points + rebounds prop line, but he did go Under this line in both Games 1 and 2. The model is leaning towards another Under for the star big man with a projection of 35.3 on Sunday.