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Whether it was the Dallas Mavericks trading their top player or the Sacramento Kings firing their head coach midway through the season, both teams have dealt with some adversity this campaign. They still were able to scrape together a play-in tournament appearance, though the loser of tonight's contest at 10 p.m. ET in Sacramento will see its season end. 

The winner will travel to face the Memphis Grizzlies on Friday to play for the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference playoffs and the right to battle the Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round. 

The 39-43 Mavericks and 40-42 Kings squared off three times already this year, with Sacramento sweeping the season series. But with players such as De'Aaron Fox and Kyrie Irving (Luka Doncic did not play the Kings this season) appearing in those earlier contests, those earlier results aren't the best indicator of what will happen tonight.

When looking at player props for this showdown at FanDuel Sportsbook, three players have points props in the 20s. Anthony Davis leads the way at 26.5, followed by Kings teammates Zach LaVine at 24.5 and DeMar DeRozan at 23.6.

Davis is also one of two players whose rebound prop is in double digits, as his sits at 11.5. Sacramento big man Domantas Sabonis, who led the NBA in rebounding with 13.9 per game, has his prop set at 13.5. Sabonis also has the highest assists prop in this contest at 6.5. 

The Kings are currently 4.5-point home favorites for this matchup, according to SportsLine consensus odds. Sacramento is -195 (bet $195 to win $100) on the money line, while Dallas is +161 (bet $100 to win $161) to extend its season by at least one more game. The total has cratered from 224.5 to 215.5, a massive 9-point swing. 

If you're looking to wager on player props, including whether Davis can dominate the Kings, the SportsLine model has you covered. It refreshes the most recent data and can help you spot discrepancies in the lines. The SportsLine model, which can be found on every game forecast page on SportsLine under the "Prop Picks" tab, assigns ratings of up to five stars for each projected value play on every NBA slate. Those picks can help build winning parlays on DraftKings, FanDuel, PrizePicks, Underdog Fantasy or Sleeper Fantasy and in same-game parlays on any betting site.

Let's check out the SportLine model's three highest-rated player prop recommendations for Mavericks-Kings and see what the payout would be if they were put into a same-game parlay. You can see the latest projections for Mavericks-Kings, along with expert picks, at SportsLine.

Mavericks-Kings Same-Game Parlay (+696)

  • Keon Ellis Over 9.5 points (+102): 4 stars
  • Domantas Sabonis Over 6.5 assists (+110): 4 stars
  • Anthony Davis Under 42.5 points + assists + rebounds (-114): 4 stars

There are six 4-star recommendations to choose from for this game's SGP, so we opted to include two stars as well as two plus-money plays to help improve those odds. Ellis has gone Over his points prop in seven of his past 10 home games, averaging 11.1 points over that stretch. He's projected for 12.7 points tonight, so he's certainly worth a roll of the dice considering his Over is at +102.

Sabonis averaged 6.0 assists per game this season, his lowest by over a full assist in three full seasons with the Kings. But one situation where the Sacramento big man has been dropping dimes is when the Kings are favored and playing against a team with a losing record. In his last five matchups in that scenario, Sabonis has cleared the Over on assists prop four times. The SportsLine model likes that trend to continue, as he's been calculated for 7.3 assists.

The last six games that the Mavericks have been road underdogs and facing a team with a losing record, Davis has only averaged 29.2 points + assists + rebounds. That's good for five Unders and only one Over for that prop in that span. The SportsLine model sees a considerable edge here, spitting out 38.0 points + assists + rebounds for Davis against the Kings.