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The NBA trade deadline has come and gone, and while it may not have given us the sheer shock value that the Luka Dončić deal did, plenty of big names ultimately found new homes. Five recent All-Stars in Darius Garland, James Harden, Jaren Jackson Jr., Anthony Davis and Trae Young all moved, and a number of big-name role players went with along with them.

With the exception of Harden, all four of those recent All-Stars had previously spent at least most of this season, if not the last several seasons, mired in trade rumors. While Dončić-esque shocks do occasionally happen, the NBA is usually pretty good at making it clear who we should expect to move in the near future. When a player is unhappy, reporters tend to suss that out. When a team is falling apart, it's usually clear in how they play. If a team is facing some salary cap-induced decision, it's visible from a mile away.

So we just moved beyond one transaction cycle, and a number of big names are suddenly off of the table. Who's waiting for us in the next big transaction cycle, the 2026 offseason? Let's try to figure that out. 

The summer do-overs

Bucks fans are doing a victory lap right now. Giannis Antetokounmpo is posting Wolf of Wall Street memes as the Bucks kept their best player beyond the deadline, but that does not mean he's committed to staying in Milwaukee for the rest of his career. I've covered everything that changes about the Antetokounmpo sweepstakes over the summer here, but this is the short version:

  • The Bucks will likely wind up with a lottery pick of some sort variety this offseason. It will be the lesser of their own pick and New Orleans'. In a perfect world, they won't suit Antetokounmpo up again this year in order to lose as many games as possible. If he's healthy and wants to return, however, there's little the Bucks can do to stop him. But one way or another, you'd expect the Bucks to land somewhere in the lottery. It might be in one of those last few Play-In spots. It might be in the 8-10 range. Or maybe they get lucky and jump into the top five. They just can't pick at No. 1.
  • The Bucks will then use that lottery pick along with their selections in 2031 and 2033 to try to improve the team and convince Antetokounmpo to stay. He is eligible for a contract extension in October. Discussions will be held earlier to take his temperature. If he makes it clear he will not extend, that's tantamount to a trade request. They can't risk him walking for nothing in free agency.
  • If trade talks resume, a number of existing suitors will reenter the fray with more draft picks and financial flexibility to offer, and new teams could enter based on how the postseason plays out.

Got all that? Good. Antetokounmpo's shadow lingered over the 2025 offseason. Legitimate talks dominated the 2026 deadline. And now, his future is the single most important story of the 2026 offseason.

Not quite as important? Ja Morant. The Grizzlies traded two-thirds of their preexisting core in Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane, and they got seven first-round picks for doing so. The impetus to get significant value for Morant therefore lowered. Memphis couldn't find a deal at the deadline, but it's not hard to imagine someone with loftier ambitions in the offseason settling for Morant as a backup plan. It's easier to talk yourself into him fitting onto a new team with a full training camp ahead and offseason to build around him. Memphis won't get much for him, but he's probably movable, if only for matching salary.

Michael Porter Jr. falls somewhere between the two in terms of both value and eagerness for a move. The Nets have a history of dangling players at deadlines, refusing to move them during the season for anything less than peak value, and then actually getting that value over the summer. It happened for Mikal Bridges. It happened for Cam Johnson. We may be watching it play out now with Porter Jr. He's having an All-Star-caliber season in Brooklyn, and it's possible that someone who struggles to score in the playoffs comes to the Nets with a real offer over the summer after no one did so in recent weeks. Keep in mind, though, that the Nets have no incentive to tank next season as the Rockets control their first-round pick. They likely wouldn't mind winning next season, so they won't trade Porter unless it's a strong offer.

The 'how serious are you about Giannis?' crowd

So, for now, we can assume teams will resume their pursuits of Antetokounmpo in June. That immediately puts quite a few big names on the table. Every Knick except Jalen Brunson. Every Timberwolf except Anthony Edwards. Every Warrior except for Stephen Curry. Every... Heat?... Heatle?...Miami Man?... except for Bam Adebayo. All of them were on the table at the deadline. The Bucks will have similar access to them in the offseason.

That was obvious. The bigger questions relate to the players that, so far as we know, were not on the table this week. We know Cleveland made a call about Giannis at some point. If they were ready to offer Evan Mobley then, a deal likely would have happened. Would a disappointing playoff run change their mind? Potentially. Remember, Donovan Mitchell is set for free agency in 2027. If he isn't satisfied with the state of the roster, changes are going to be made in order to keep him. Whether he'd want to trade Mobley for Antetokounmpo remains to be seen, but if Cleveland misses the conference finals again, you'd imagine the Cavaliers would at least consider it.

How about Paolo Banchero? He functionally couldn't be dealt to Milwaukee at this year's deadline because of his poison pill contract. Next season, his rookie extension kicks in, and the Magic can far more easily swap him and a bit more salary for Giannis. Would they do so? He doesn't exactly solve their shooting issues, but they just spent four picks on Bane. The Magic want to win now, and if they have doubts about the Banchero-Franz Wagner partnership, this is a way to address them.

If San Antonio gets into the mix, it likely includes Stephon Castle or Dylan Harper. If Houston does, that means Alperen Sengun or Amen Thompson may be on the table. If Detroit registers interest, it could include Ausar Thompson. And if the Lakers are going to make a serious play here, they almost have to dangle Austin Reaves in a sign-and-trade. We have no idea if any of these teams will really mount an all-out pursuit next summer, but these are the names to watch. If the Bucks do have to trade Antetokounmpo, their first choice would be to get a young possible All-Star in return.

The 'let's see how the playoffs go' group

There are two categories here. The first are players on good teams facing a lot of pressure. Take Cleveland. The Cavaliers just traded Garland. Jarrett Allen was also in rumors. Mobley looks more capable of moving to center full time than he ever has. Allen is set to begin a pricey contract extension next offseason. If things don't go well this spring, you can bet he'll be gettable in the summer. Karl-Anthony Towns stands out as another example here. There was extensive reporting some of the frustrations New York's locker room had with him last season, and this year has been up and down. We seemingly learned at this year's deadline that Towns doesn't have much trade value, but if the Knicks flame out early, it's hard to imagine they don't at least explore his market further.

I'm just going to throw out another name here. He probably won't hit the market. He's treated as sacred by his organization. I'd just like to ask... how long are the Heat going to be okay as a directionless Play-In team? They're headed for a fourth straight Play-In berth. They have no obvious path out of the middle of the East unless they can land Antetokounmpo. They have no star-level young player ready to lift them internally. So... is there a godfather offer out there somewhere for Bam Adebayo? Someone is probably eager to make it. Whether or not the Heat even pick up the phone is another matter. Now probably isn't the time, but how many more Play-In Tournaments do the Heat plan to participate in?

The other flavor of "let's see how the playoffs go" relates to younger teams, ideally the ones with assets to burn. These are the teams that might view themselves as one player away from a deep push and are therefore willing to pay a premium for someone specific, much like Orlando did with Bane last summer. The obvious name here would be Trey Murphy, as reports have indicated the Pelicans would want a Bane-esque package to consider trading him. 

Usually this group is bigger, but most of the teams near the bottom of the standings have already made their aggressive push to try to win next season, so their best assets aren't on the table. The time for a Lauri Markkanen trade has come and gone. The Hornets are playing far too well to consider a LaMelo Ball trade now.

What's going on in Los Angeles?

It's become a bit of an open secret that LeBron James and the Lakers are headed for a split. They've moved on to the Dončić era, and with their significant cap space this offseason they need to build a roster of role players around him and Reaves that can actually stick around and grow with them for the long haul. Putting aside all of the recent palace intrigue, the Lakers just can't keep turning over half of their roster every year or two. It's just not prudent to keep paying a 41-year-old.

There's not much money on the open market anymore. Most of the cap space teams this summer spent money at the deadline. The ones who remain aren't exactly the kind of contenders capable of giving James one last shot at a fifth ring. He's not signing with the Nets or Bulls. Only a small group of teams has any hope of luring him into a 24th season, probably for a minimum salary. The Knicks and Warriors will probably draw some consideration. If he plays next season, a Cleveland retirement tour is probably the favorite. He may simply retire.

But there's another pretty interesting situation brewing with the other Los Angeles team. The Clippers entered the season hoping to contend with James Harden, Ivica Zubac and Kawhi Leonard. Harden and Zubac are both gone. There's really no reason to keep Leonard at this point. If he helps them win a few games next season, great, but they've moved on and have already starting building the next iteration of their team. If they can trade him for value, they should, though he may do everything in his power to squash a deal. He made it pretty clear in 2019 that he wants to be in Los Angeles.

But what if that's no longer an option for him, at least as far as the Clippers go? The Aspiration investigation is still ongoing. We have no idea what the league has or hasn't found. If the NBA finds anything incriminating, it could theoretically void the rest of Leonard's contract and make him a free agent as it did Joe Smith when he and the Timberwolves were caught circumventing the cap decades ago. At that point, with very little money on the market, what does Leonard do? Take a discount to join the Lakers so he can stay in Los Angeles? Retire? Hop onto the contender of his choice for the minimum? Sit out a year and wait for more favorable cap conditions in 2027?

We're in reckless speculation territory at this point, but Leonard's future is one of the more interesting questions in the NBA right now. He's playing at an All-NBA level, and he's been reasonably healthy for several months now. That could change at any time, but as many headaches as Leonard creates, anyone this good is going to have a lot of interest in whatever manner they are available.