PLAYOFF SCHEDULE | EXPERT BRACKETS
TORONTO -- The Toronto Raptors and Miami Heat survived first-round scares with Game 7 victories, and now they meet in what should be a long series. Let’s look at this matchup from a bunch of different angles before it gets going on Tuesday at the Air Canada Centre.
PREVIOUSLY ON RAPTORS-HEAT: The Raptors won three of the four games, and their lone loss was a 20-point defeat in November. That would seem to bode well for the No. 2 seed, but I’d argue there that the regular-season series isn’t all that illuminating. Miami completely changed its style of play after the All-Star break, losing Chris Bosh because of a medical issue and adding Joe Johnson after a buyout.
The teams have met just once since then and it went to overtime, with the Raptors prevailing 112-104 at home. Dwyane Wade missed that game with a thigh injury, though, and Toronto had James Johnson and Luis Scola in the rotation instead of DeMarre Carroll and Norman Powell.
One trend, though: DeMar DeRozan caused all sorts of problems. Against the Heat, DeRozan averaged 29.3 points, 5.3 rebounds and 4.5 assists, shooting 48.8 percent, making 36.4 percent of his free throws and getting to the charity stripe 10 times per game. More on him later.
THE BIG PICTURE: Can either of these teams be consistent? Miami blew out the Charlotte Hornets in Games 1 and 7 of the first round, but everything in between was rocky. The Raptors barely survived against the Indiana Pacers, dropping Game 1 at home and even surrendering a fourth-quarter run before hanging on in Game 7.
In the first round, we saw the Heat at times look like an offensive juggernaut, pushing the ball and making open 3-pointers at will. We also saw them look ordinary, bricking jumpers and failing to score 90 points in three straight losses. Toronto had stretches where it looked like the deep, disciplined team that won 56 regular-season games, but at other times it got sloppy and rushed things.
This is the most compelling matchup in the semifinals, and it’s hard to pick just one head-to-head storyline to focus on. Here are five:
1) DeRozan, at his best, is reminiscent of a young Wade, from the pump fakes to the quick spins and the midrange jumpers.
2) Point guards Kyle Lowry and Goran Dragic were once teammates in Houston, only to leave and elevate their games elsewhere.
“You got one feisty bulldog and then you got another feisty European, so it was great,” Carroll said, reflecting on his brief time with them. “Back then I wasn’t really playing so I could just sit on the bench and watch these guys and it was great.”
3) The Jonas Valanciunas-Hassan Whiteside battle will be violent. There will be elbows. There will be blocks. There will also be fouls, lots of them, and the Raptors are better equipped to handle that because of the presence of backup center Bismack Biyombo.
4) Powell is Toronto’s newest playoff hero, and he was picked No. 46 in last year’s draft. He would be by far the biggest draft-day steal, except for the fact that Heat guard Josh Richardson was taken at No. 40. Only one super-rookie may advance.
5) Raptors rookie guard Delon Wright probably won’t be in the rotation. The same is true for Miami forward Dorell Wright. They are brothers facing each other in the postseason, though, and that’s pretty weird and great.
X-FACTOR: Luol Deng. The Heat forward completely changed his team’s season when he shifted to stretch-4, and he had a monster series against the Hornets. In Miami’s four wins, he averaged 20.8 points and 6.3 rebounds, shooting 68.1 percent and 57.9 percent from 3-point range. It feels wrong just to type those percentages, but they are real.
“He’s really shooting the ball right now at a high level,” Casey said. “His experience, his toughness is a challenge, everything he brings to the game. The guy’s a winner.”
Against Toronto, Deng’s defense will be just as important as his shooting. He’ll likely be the primary defender on DeRozan, and that is a tough assignment. DeRozan never stops attacking, regardless of who is guarding him and whether or not his shots are falling.
Paul George, arguably the best player in the first round, made DeRozan’s life difficult and carried his team on the other end. Deng doesn’t have that kind of offensive load, but he needs to at least have the legs to make those 3-pointers.
KEY STAT: Lowry’s shooting percentage. Against Indiana, the Raptors’ best player shot 31-for-98 (31.6 percent) and 7-for-43 (16.3 percent) from deep. If you watched all of his possessions and did not look at whether or not the shots went in, you’d say he was fantastic. The misses, though, were a problem, and a big factor in why Toronto needed seven games to dispose of the Pacers.
Lowry hurt his elbow back in January when the Raptors went to London. He played through it, had fluid drained and sat out occasionally in the last few weeks of the season. He insists that this is not why he has shot poorly, instead choosing to credit Indiana’s defense. Whatever the reason, Lowry has missed shots that he consistently made earlier this season.
“He’s our guy,” Casey said. “We have faith in him. His shot’s going to come. You’re not going to forget how to shoot the ball, you’re not going to totally forget. I think the more you talk about something like that, the more you start overthinking it. Play basketball, shoot the basketball. You’re a shooter, shoot.”
One positive for Toronto: Miami does not have a point guard who defends at the same level as Indiana guard George Hill. If Lowry can exploit that fact, then the Raptors’ offense as a whole should look a lot better.
PREDICTION: Raptors in seven. I don’t see how anyone could call this either way with a ton of confidence, but I’ll take the team that was better in the regular season. They have more offensive firepower, better defenders on the bench and they take care of the ball.
There are, of course, convincing arguments for the Heat. For one, it’s difficult to bet against Wade in the playoffs. His Game 6 performance in Charlotte was inspiring, and he won’t be intimidated if this series goes seven. Miami is the more experienced team here, and its first-round highs were higher than Toronto’s. It shouldn’t have a shortage of confidence.
For me, it comes down to the fact that the Raptors have another gear they can get to. In taking Scola out of the rotation and giving Powell major minutes, they have already gotten closer to becoming the best version of themselves. Carroll, who missed much of the season with a knee injury, is looking healthier every game. After finally winning a series, there is so much less pressure on Toronto. If that means better production from Lowry and DeRozan, then the Raptors should be seen as the (slight) favorites.