Scoot Henderson just had the best stretch of his young NBA career: Was it sustainable or fool's gold?

It was just a week ago that Scoot Henderson, one of the most polarizing young players in the league, was in the midst of the best four-game stretch of his career, averaging 25 points, 8 assists, and 5 rebounds on 57/53/79 shooting.

The four games since though have been a wild, up-and-down ride, illustrating the vast inconsistencies that have plagued his first season-and-a-half in the league. The Trail Blazers guard had 11 points in 34 minutes on the road in Miami on Jan. 21, scored four points before fouling out in just 14 minutes in Orlando on Jan. 23, and then scored two points in Charlotte on Jan. 24. On Sunday, though, he bounced back with 25 points, albeit on 7-for-17 shooting with just one assist against four turnovers.

Growing pains are to be expected for a lead guard who is still just 20 years old, but Scoot's arrival in the league was so widely anticipated that it came with huge and immediate expectations.

A little more than two years ago, some were claiming there were two generational prospects in the 2023 NBA Draft, particularly after Scoot delivered 28 points and nine assists in the G League Showcase against Victor Wembanyama and his Mets 92 team. When the Spurs took Wemby at No. 1 and Charlotte chose Brandon Miller over Scoot at No. 2, Portland had what virtually everyone considered an easy pick. Henderson was one of the most anticipated lead guards the league had seen in recent years and when Dame Lillard was traded three months later, the table was set for him to take the reins from Day 1.

Of course, that rookie season didn't go as planned, beginning with a shoulder injury in his first summer league game, followed by an ankle injury in his fifth game of the regular season. Henderson's rookie season turned out to be 62 inconsistent and fairly inefficient games. His 3-point shooting (32.5%) was a work in progress like most expected coming out of the G-League, and while there was an expectation that he'd be a bit turnover prone, his 19.2 turnover percentage was one of the three worst marks in the league among players who saw action in more than 60 games. 

The biggest concern though was his 50% shooting at the rim, which rated in the bottom 5% of NBA players and negated the downhill burst which was perceived as his best creative asset. There were some similar concerns on the defensive end where he had clear physical assets with his length, power, and burst, but was foul-prone and rated poorly across the board when it came to defending isolations or any type of screening action.

The first 30 or so games of his sophomore season saw some gradual progress before the recent spurt. The intermittent highs of the last two weeks have provided some increased optimism, but the variables for his future success are still those same ones from his freshman season.

Scoot Henderson's last 10 games

The most notable area of growth is with regard to his shooting. Henderson's 3-point percentage has gone from 32.5% as a rookie to 35.5% this season. More recently, there's an increased willingness to shoot from that range as well. Henderson attempted five or more threes in all four games of his spurt. In the 14 games he's played in the month of January, he's made 42% of his threes and is taking 4.7 attempts per game, vs. the 3.0 attempts he had to start the season in the month of November. Beyond the numbers, there are some notable improvements in his mechanics, specifically his lower body. Last year his load up into his release would often fluctuate, this year, he's become much more disciplined with a slight hop into almost every release, even off the dribble.

While the increased shooting volume and accuracy is going to force defenders to respect his jumper and thus open up more driving lanes, the turnover rate remains high at 19.6%. There also hasn't been any progression over the course of the season as January's 3.0 turnovers vs. 5.1 assists in 28 minutes is actually slightly worse than his 1.9 turnovers vs. 4.6 assists in 24.6 minutes in December. Simply put, the shooting hasn't solved the decision-making issues. This trend is clear on film as well. While he makes plenty of solid reads, there's way too many head-scratching decisions, including some basic fundamental stuff like feeding the post from the wrong angle.

The other area where more growth is an absolute requisite is with his rim finishing. Henderson shot 45% at the rim last year per Synergy Sports, which ranked in the bottom 5% of all NBA players. This year that number is up to 50%, but still only ranks in the 16th percentile. This significant of a problem is rarely attributable to just one root cause, and Portland's lack of 3-point shooting and consequent floor-spacing doesn't help, but it's notable that someone as powerful as Henderson never finishes off two feet. In fact, he hasn't attempted to dunk a ball off two feet all season long. His reliance on those one-foot finishes has also highlighted the lack of balance that he can sometimes have in the lane, which again is counterintuitive for someone as long and powerful as he is.

Defensively, he's taken some steps forward and is rating generally better, particularly guard isolations and off-ball cutting. He can still be foul-prone though, as the Orlando game illustrated, and a liability when defending ball-screens, which is obviously of vital importance for an NBA lead guard. In fact, he gives up an average of 1.059 points per possession when his man is the pick-and-roll ball-handler, which is in the bottom 10% of the league.

The bottom line is that while Henderson has shown more encouraging signs in the last few weeks than ever before in his NBA career, a good amount of that is rooted in the shooting. If that shooting growth is sustainable, it's a very positive development. If not, it could be fool's gold. More important though, is being able to fully weaponize his physical gifts and ability to get downhill. Until he's able to finish plays at the rim and avoid the lapses in his decision-making, the upside many projected coming into the draft won't be realistic.

That's not to say it won't happen, but that is requires significant growth in multiple critical areas first.